#skndpldr Roundup

With the holiday break now over, we can likely expect a steady stream of news from Saskatchewan's NDP leadership campaign until the March convention. So let's take a look at a few developments from the past week.

- While it's still not clear how much progress Cam Broten has made in generating excitement among the NDP's grassroots, he's certainly done well for himself when it comes to media reaction - with the latest example being Joe Couture's naming Broten as the top NDP performer in the legislature for 2012.

- Meanwhile, Yens Pedersen offered his own take on the campaign in the Star-Phoenix - drawing a contrast between Broten and Trent Wotherspoon as candidates he sees as pursuing power for its own sake, and Ryan Meili and Erin Weir as candidates more focused on policy outcomes. And while I'd see the issue as involving placement on a continuum rather than contrasting positions on a yes-or-no issue, there doesn't seem to be much doubt that the two sets of candidates better represent the business-as-usual and significant-reform positions respectively.

- Meili unveiled his policy on gender equality, with most of the more specific proposals summed up by this broad statement of principle:

There is no prescription to bring about greater equality; there is only a process. That process begins with changing the conversation about gender, recognizing that everyone benefits when the status of women improves. Rather than gender neutral (which tends to mean gender blind), policy decisions need to be made with an explicit gender lens and a commitment to gender equality in mind, from idea to implementation to evaluation.

- Finally, Gavin Gardiner and Brett Estey both offered partial coverage of yesterday's Rosetown leadership debate. But the more thorough review at the time from Cole Hogan seems to have disappeared.

Wednesday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading.

- Dan Gardner writes about the Cons' backup plan of answering their own wrongdoing with criticism of anybody who dares to investigate it - and points out the dangers of that approach:

(W)hat happens if Elections Canada delivers a report even a fraction as damning as the one Sheila Fraser produced in 2004? Will the government express contrition and call a judicial inquiry? Or will it carry out the mother of all hatchet jobs on Elections Canada?
...
Stephen Harper has impugned the professionalism and good faith of everyone from the RCMP to the Supreme Court of Canada, and he has done so when the stakes were relatively small. So how likely is it that he would respond to an unfavourable report from an agency he has long despised, on a matter that could imperil his government, by launching a vicious campaign to impugn the professionalism and good faith of that agency? The answer must be “very.”

And if that happened, it would be a disaster for the country.

The goal in all of this isn’t merely to catch and punish anyone who engaged in vote fraud. It’s to assure Canadians that such despicable behaviour will not taint future elections. This is about restoring faith — in our electoral system and in the legitimacy of the governments it produces. To do that, there must be universal agreement that a full and fair investigation was conducted, as there was when the auditor general’s report on the sponsorship scandal was released.

But a campaign to impugn Elections Canada would destroy any hope of universal agreement. Instead, perceptions would break along partisan lines.

Faith in our electoral system could suffer, causing cynicism and detachment to spread like bacteria in a Petri dish.

- Steve Rennie reports that the Cons received - and ignored - advice that using the nuclear option to deal with every single conceivable labour dispute might not be a bright idea.

- Joe Couture lists some possible Saskatchewan NDP leadership candidates - with some particularly noteworthy news in that both Ryan Meili and Yens Pedersen both mention they're considering another run.

- Meanwhile, CUPE points out the mess the Sask Party is making in the meantime with corporate-first arrangements like the Amicus long-term care facility. And a group of health-care unions is reaching out with suggestions for revamping and legitimizing the essential services law that's been struck down.

- And finally, Paul Wells notes that while the Cons' attack ad on Bob Rae has drawn more attention, it's their latest bit of jingoism that looks like a sign of a worried government - and not without reason given how many Canadians are concerned about the country's direction.

The purge continues

There's been some reporting about the Wall government's "rebalancing" in the Saskatchewan civil service to move union positions out of scope - ensuring that the public pays more for the same work as the price of undercutting public-sector unions. But that's apparently the least of the Sask Party's efforts to manipulate the civil service for its political ends.

Here's a Facebook post from Yens Pedersen (and need I add, former leadership candidate and NDP nominee in Regina South?):

Civil servants beware - a few civil servants and their spouses I know have received unsolicited calls at their home to find out what they think of the Sask Party and premier Brad Wall. Some callers apparently sound like a pollster, but are not. These are Sask Party calls, and they are building their database of who is and isn't a Sask Party supporter in the government.
...
(F)irst one I heard, thought it was a coincidence. 5th one I heard, seems like a pattern. The questions all sound similar too, not typical pollster questions.

(Incidentally, a few more examples have apparently surfaced since Yens' original posts.)

Elsewhere on the same thread, Yens also rightly notes that the names of civil servants are available through the Government of Saskatchewan's public directory. So it's not particularly difficult for anybody with enough resources to call up virtually any public servant at home by matching work names with listed phone numbers.

But it would appear to be a first for the Sask Party to be using that method to carry out a systematic loyalty test. And based on the Wall government's track record of politically-motivated firings, there's plenty of reason for public servants to be concerned about a government that seems entirely eager to purge any independent thought from the province's civil service.

Update: A couple of commenters note that the scope of the calling seems to go beyond the civil service alone, raising the possibility that it's instead a garden-variety push poll. Which would itself make for another broken promise for the Sask Party - but makes it less clear whether the calls are related to the management of provincial employees.

Regina South Nomination - Belatedly Posted Liveblog

Regina South Nomination Meeting

7:10 For lack of wireless I've written this at the meeting for later posting. Turnout looks to be strong, with a lineup out the door to register starting shortly before 7. And now more chairs are being set up - which would seem to suggest more attendees than expected.

7:13 On a rough look Heather looks to have an edge in the sign department to go with a strong display - but we'll find out soon whether that will translate into votes.

7:27 Still a couple of dozen people in line to register, even as the room is rapidly filling up. If Heather's signs aren't yet being peddled for use as fans, they will be soon.

7:45 And we're underway as Donna Shire takes the podium and highlights the work both candidates have done in building the riding.

7:50 Jeff Grubb, the balloting chair, goes over the rules - noting in particular the constitutional amendment preventing nominations from the floor. But wouldn't this be far more fun if a new candidate could get tossed into the mix?

7:54 On to speeches, with Kent Peterson introducing Heather first and emphasizing the Andrew Thomson endorsement. Jennifer Tupper follows as the official nominator, discussing the need to challenge Bill Hutchinson and presenting Heather as a stronger contrast.

7:59 Heather's speech follows along the "clear contrast" message, then turns to a line that she communicates for a living, seeing that as the best way to make a difference. (That's contrasted against seeing election as a "stepping stone" to other goals.)

8:02 Heather turns to a discussion of an appetite for change from the spin of a Sask Party government which doesn't listen - using "if he'd bothered to ask" as a repeated line criticizing the Wall government's actions.

8:06 "Sask Party Kittens" is officially the joke of the night.

8:07 Heather finishes strong, going back to the contrast message but seeming much more comfortable as the speech went on.

8:10 Velma Wessel introduces Yens, noting his having stepped in on short notice after Thomson left suddenly shortly before the 2007 election - which definitely saps some of the power from Thomson's endorsement.

8:13 "He isn't a woman, but he is a feminist" among other lines about Yens.

8:14 Yens begins his speech saying "tonight, there can be only one loser - Bill Hutchinson".

8:16 Yens recounts his efforts in 2007, saying the lesson to take is that time on the doorstep matters both for winning elections and for learning about constituents.

8:17 On to a reminder of Yens' work as party president and leadership candidate, noting that he stayed involved in Regina South all along.

8:20 Yens talks up his membership sales, particularly highlighting a number of new young members before pledging to knock on every Regina South door twice before the election if he's nominated.

8:21 "The reason I'm running" leads into personal appeals to deal with climate change and child poverty - noting the importance of change even when it's difficult.

8:25 Yens jokes about how often he ends up asking for support, closing by tying that into a message about his experience and commitment.

8:26 And the turnout is...21 guests signed in (plus many not signed in), and 195 delegates. And now voting begins.

8:56 Dwain Lingenfelter finishes his stump speech, with the results to follow Trent Wotherspoon's financial appeal.

9:03 And the winner is...Yens, with the announcement followed shortly by Heather's motion to make the result unanimous. 

Congratulations to both candidates for a hard-fought campaign - and the work that went into tonight will make for a great start on 2011.

Regina South Nomination Wrapup

When the Regina South nomination race first got started, I figured both Heather McIntyre and Yens Pedersen would face some interesting choices as to whether to cast off their positioning from previous races. And both have done so with a vengeance.

After highlighting her ability to represent Ward 2 in last year's City Council race, McIntyre has made an explicit appeal to Regina South based on her being the "only candidate who lives in the constituency". Similarly, Pedersen has gone from emphasizing personal but unnamed endorsements as an outsider in last year's NDP leadership race, to presenting testimonials from the biggest names possible as part of an insider/frontrunner campaign.

So where have both candidates gone while distancing themselves from their previous messages?

On the bright side, both candidates presented some excellent ideas to spread messages which seemed to fit their image - but unfortunately, both allowed those to disappear during the course of the campaign. McIntyre's Coffee Talk seemed to be an effective way to take a conversational tone with possible voters visiting her website, but version One was never followed by a Two. Likewise, Pedersen put up a strong blog post on the WEPA when it was first announced which seemed to hint at more wonkish policy discussion than one normally sees in a nomination race - but he didn't follow up with a single post afterward, and his other communications through Facebook have focused almost entirely on photos and membership sales.

With those means of reaching potential voters falling by the wayside, the deciding factors look to be the traditional ones associated with any nomination campaign. And each candidate has had something to crow about lately: Pedersen his strong number of memberships sold, McIntyre her endorsement from longtime Regina South MLA Andrew Thomson. And the race has also become relatively chippy over the last little while (see the comment sections of my previous tagged posts) - which may be surprising based on the past connections between the candidates, but makes sense in a two-candidate race where there's no need to pursue later-ballot support.

So where does that leave the candidates going into tomorrow night's nomination meeting?

(Non-)Endorsement

I'll start by passing on what will become a regular feature in future nomination races. From the beginning of the Regina South race, I've been hesitant to get involved for or against either candidate, and I'll likewise hold off on making an endorsement either way.

Suffice it to say that both McIntyre and Pedersen are top-flight candidates with track records of involvement in the party and the riding. And whoever wins the nomination race should be an effective MLA for a long time to come starting in 2011.

Prediction

That said, I'll be less shy about predicting the outcome than trying to influence it. Both candidates have some obvious strengths they can point to - but the race will ultimately come down to who can bring out the most supporters tomorrow night. And the combination of a province-wide profile built during the leadership race and a high number of claimed new memberships looks to give Pedersen the upper hand against McIntyre's head start and high-profile endorsement.

With that in mind, I'll call the likelihood of winning the Regina South nomination at 60% for Yens Pedersen, 40% for Heather McIntyre. But in a race as close and as hotly contested as this one, neither candidate can take the outcome for granted - so tomorrow's nomination meeting (Sunset United Church at 7:00 pm, for those keeping track) should be a can't-miss for Regina NDP members.

Regina South Virtual Document Drop

Heather McIntyre


Yens Pedersen
Yens Handout

(Edits: fixed formatting, updated image.)

Saskatchewan Nomination Roundup

A few notes on provincial and federal nomination races around the province...

In Regina South, Yens Pedersen has focused on membership sales lately, and is announcing that his campaign has brought in 65 new members as of last week's deadline. Meanwhile, Heather McIntyre is pointing out Kent's timeline of the race.

In Regina Coronation Park, last month's debate has been followed by a surprising lull in apparent activity. Roger Bucsis has yet to put up any apparent public presence, and Tory McGregor and Fred Kress have combined for a single Facebook wall post since then. That's left Jaime Garcia and Tamara Harder as the two candidates still making an effort to keep voters interested and informed online - though it's possible the others have simply turned their focus elsewhere.

But at least the NDP can claim that its provincial nominations are being contested. In contrast, Sean notes that city councillor Gord Wyant has been acclaimed as the Sask Party's candidate in Saskatoon Northwest.

Meanwhile, the Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre continues to see plenty of online activity, as Brian Sklar is making an effort to match Don Hansen's steady stream of posts. But does anybody know exactly what Brian means when he says he wants to "elect the first "Western Senator""?

Tuesday Morning Links

So much going on, so little time. So let's deal with a few recent developments in point form.

- Regina Councillor Chris Szarka wants to put in place a Regina Big Home Lottery (wealthy property owners guaranteed to win!). Christine Whitaker responds by pointing out the problems with shifting the cost of services even further toward those who can't afford to pay more.

- Brad Wall's Sask Party government: consistently outraged that anyone has the nerve to seek out the truth.

- Two former Saskatchewan NDP leadership contestants look to be making solid progress in their riding nomination races: Ryan Meili has relaunched his website and funded his Saskatoon Sutherland nomination contest through a single money bomb, while Yens Pedersen is back blogging with a strong comment on the WEPA.

- Finally, the Georgia Straight reports that the Campbell Liberals have even more to worry about by way of public backlash to the HST as the anti-harmonization forces are looking at recalling MLAs. Meanwhile, Colin Hansen is shocked to learn that the rules apply to his government - while Elections B.C.'s rightful rejection of pro-HST propaganda makes it all the more likely that the current petition initiative will succeed.

Saskatchewan NDP - Regina Nomination Roundup

To date, I haven't followed up much on the Regina Coronation Park and Regina South nomination races since mentioning the entry of each candidate. But now that the fields look to be fairly well set, let's take a closer look at what each candidate is currently doing to build support online.

Off the top, it's worth noting that each one of the six candidates has put together at least a reasonably well-updated Facebook group in support of his or her effort - not to mention that all six candidates attended the Prince Albert provincial convention to interact with the broader party. But it's worth also pointing out some of the creative steps taken beyond that strong baseline of activity for all of the candidates. So let's go through the candidates in alphabetical order by riding to see what they've been up to.

Regina Coronation Park

The first candidate to review also looks to be winner in the creativity department so far. Jaime Garcia's campaign has left no stone unturned in getting his name out into the public, with the efforts so far ranging from billboards to custom pop bottles in addition to active Facebook, Twitter and web presences. And the fact that he's also held a fund-raising dinner hints at how he's been able to afford forms of advertising not normally expected in a nomination race. About the only question I'd have about Garcia's campaign so far is his degree of focus on candidate branding over policy - but he's certainly done well in getting his name known.

The other Regina Coronation Park candidate with a complete set of online campaign tools is Tamara Harder, who likewise features regular Facebook and Twitter updates to go with the strongest web presence among the Coronation Park candidates. (Disclaimer: As mentioned before, I'm helping out with Tamara's campaign.)

Not surprisingly, Fred Kress is somewhat behind the younger candidates in his online presence, as he's the candidate with the longest gap in online updates (having last posted on March 21). Hopefully he'll get back in the habit of posting, as his earlier updates offered some sharper and more candid commentary than most of the candidates have provided.

Finally, Tory McGregor has also gone awhile since his last update on March 23. But it's worth highlighting a few of his earlier entries which reflect the most direct effort of any of the candidates to educate voters about an area of interest (that being the Sask Party's proposed changes to environmental regulation).

Regina South

As expected, both of the candidates in Regina South have maintained a strong online presence. But the most notable new development looks to be Heather McIntyre's Coffee Talk feature, offering visitors the chance to hear conversational interviews about Heather's campaign (with more apparently to come) to accompany her regular written updates.

Meanwhile, Yens Pedersen's campaign has provided updates primarily through his Facebook group, featuring a bevy of photos and outside links. It's worth noting that much of Yens' website (including the blog portion) has been pared down or cleared since last year's leadership race, and it'll be worth watching the extent to which he ends up offering less formal commentary on the nomination race to counter McIntyre's personal focus.

Update (April 9): To his credit, Jaime Garcia has been posting plenty of policy links and commentary over the past few days since I posted the above. For my next demand, I'd like to see a musical number.

Saskatchewan NDP Convention 2010 - Saturday Afternoon Recap

I didn't note in this morning's post that the Saskatchewan NDP convention's "internet cafe" was shut down after last night - hence the limited posting today. (That said, thanks to the NDP communications staff for allowing me to use the computer room this morning to put up the earlier post.)

For this afternoon, the most interesting portion of the proceedings (the caucus bearpit) looked to be one where I'd inevitably miss important content if I tried to update during the day. So instead, here's my review of the afternoon's events.

To start with, there was no surprise in the election of the provincial President, as Jane Wollenberg was re-elected by acclamation. That left plenty of time for Darcy Furber to give the host MLA's address prior to the bearpit.

The bearpit itself featured loads of interesting questions from a variety of participants - and no, none of the MLAs (let alone the party leader) had to pitch in filler questions as has apparently happened in some other parties. (In fact, at least five more people were waiting to ask questions when the moderator finally had to call the session to a close.)

Instead, Dwain Lingenfelter kept extremely busy by answering the vast majority of the audience's questions - by my count providing the full answer to 11 of the 19 questions posed by the audience, along with partial answers to 2 more. One had to be impressed by his ability to take the lead role in answering a broad range of issues, though it might have been a plus to hear from a few more caucus members during the session.

Among the interesting answers provided by Lingenfelter:
- The NDP would plan to reinstitute the funding for Station 20 West that was pulled by the Wall government, as well as the neighbourhood organization funding cut in last week's budget.
- On a question about the abandonment of branch lines, Lingenfelter would be open to provincial support for the rail sector, noting that the result could be to save money compared to the cost of instead repairing overburdened highways.
- Responding to a question focused on forestry, Lingenfelter raised for himself the possibility that social housing might make for an effective use of some of the wood products which currently aren't finding a market.

There were a couple of points in Lingenfelter's answers which hit off notes. In response to a question and follow-up about how to get younger citizens interested in the NDP, Lingenfelter's focus on highlighting past policies seemed to miss the questioner's concern. And while he was right to point out the Regina Coronation Park nomination candidates as examples of diversity within the NDP, it's a little surprising that he didn't include Tory McGregor's Metis background - particularly at a convention where First Nations and Metis issues have been in the spotlight, and given that McGregor's former Green allegiances have been mentioned more than once as an example of the NDP's adding support from other parties.

While Lingenfelter's answers were generally well-received, the strongest crowd reaction came from Frank Quennell's lone answer. In response to question about the Wall government's marriage commissioner reference, Quennell slammed the Sask Party for abandoning important legal proceedings on equalization, tobacco and gangs while deciding to commit public money to arguing both sides of a settled question, and got a boisterous standing ovation as his reward.

As for the questioners: while as noted none of the current MLAs got in line to raise issues, a few familiar names did. Robert Hale questioned whether the NDP would be better off focusing on the Sask Party's using the province's rainy-day fund when the sun is shining rather than arguing over whether the budget is technically in deficit or not; Yens Pedersen raised a question on changing environmental legislation to include assessment of the cumulative effect of multiple exploratory oil wells; and Heather McIntyre raised concerns about the Sask Party's privatization by stealth.

After a break and a brief election planning report, the first plenary session began to deal with the convention's resolutions. As usual, most of them passed, but two noteworthy resolutions didn't survive the convention floor: EN10 (setting a 40% GHG reduction target) was referred to the policy review process so that a target could be developed in conjunction with discussion of the means of reaching it, while PA2 on free party membership (discussed in this post) was defeated.

Tonight will feature the nomination meetings for Prince Albert Northcote and Prince Albert Carlton, with more elections and plenary to come tomorrow.

(Edit: fixed typo.)

Regina South: Yens Pedersen Enters NDP Nomination Race

Leftdog reports that Yens Pedersen has announced his plans for 2011, and has decided to seek a rematch against Bill Hutchinson in Regina South after suffering a narrow loss in 2007.

But of course, he'll face a challenge for the NDP's nomination first. And with Heather McIntyre already in the race, the nomination contest looks to be a fascinating one. And due only in part to the fact that the two candidates were fixtures in each others' inner circles in the races that each ran in 2009 (Pedersen for the NDP leadership, McIntyre for City Council).

Perhaps even more noteworthy, though, is the fact that some of the main messages used by each in their previous campaigns will now cut in the opposition direction. McIntyre, having fought a "doesn't live in the ward" message in her Council race, is now the candidate who would be tempted to run as the candidate who does live in the riding - while the experience vs. renewal dynamic from the leadership race may be reversed as Pedersen grapples with his status as the candidate who's run but lost in the riding before.

Either way, Regina South voters will be able to look forward to a strong NDP candidate in 2011. And when that's combined with the increased level of enthusiasm following a hotly-contested nomination battle, one has to like the odds of the NDP retaking the seat.

On impending announcements

As part of a slew of new posts about the Saskatchewan NDP's nomination races, LRT points out the latest news from leadership contestants Ryan Meili and Yens Pedersen, who will both be announcing their targeted nominations very shortly.

Of course it's no surprise that both will be pursuing seats, but it's good to see that they're getting an early start on the task. And there can't be much doubt that two candidates who built up remarkably strong province-wide support during the course of a six-month leadership race should be well positioned to assemble winning riding campaigns in the year and a half before the 2011 election.

Saskatchewan NDP Year in Review 2009: Pushback

As I discussed in an earlier post, the federal NDP's 2009 was marked by incremental progress toward a long-standing plan. In contrast, the year in Saskatchewan's NDP involved major decisions as to the party's direction. But while there are plenty of questions left to be answered over the next two years, we did see one key shift in Saskatchewan's political scene which will make tracing a path to government in 2011 far less problematic that it might otherwise have been.

Needless to say, the first six months of the year were dominated by the party's leadership race which culminated in Dwain Lingenfelter's second-ballot victory over Ryan Meili. What began as a seeming romp for Lingenfelter turned into a dramatic finish, as longtime stalwart Lingenfelter, faced with the membership sale controversy, was just barely able to hold off the combined efforts of a strong MLA competitor in Deb Higgins and two of the party's rising stars in Meili and Yens Pedersen.

But perhaps even more important than the candidates themselves was the range of supporters brought into the race - with Lingenfelter mixing plenty of new names and faces into a base of bedrock support dating back decades, while Meili and Pedersen put together new campaign teams which surprised many with their enthusiasm and effectiveness. Which leads to the question of how best to keep all of the key leadership race participants inside the NDP's tent and engaged in the party leading up to 2011.

So far, the best prospect for continued renewal looks to be a policy development process which Lingenfelter is rightly playing up as setting the NDP's direction for some time to come. There's some obvious room for improvement in the amount of public discussion about the process so far, but once consultations begin in earnest there will be a golden opportunity not only to set the NDP's policy direction, but also to build up a new set of NDP voices for the future to join Meili, Pedersen and newly-elected MLA Danielle Chartier. The latter goal may require some concerted effort to place a focus on the grassroots rather than the current leader or caucus, but such an effort would figure to be well rewarded in the end.

Meanwhile, Lingenfelter's main appeal as a leader always figured to be his ability to turn the tables on a government which had emerged almost entirely unscathed from its first two years in office (thanks to fawning media coverage as well as a lack of consistent NDP messages to define him). And with an assist to the NDP's prescient warnings about overreliance on potash revenues, the first half-year of Lingenfelter's leadership has undoubtedly seen the end of any free ride for Brad Wall.

Mind you, the concern hasn't yet filtered down to as much of the general public as one would like to see (nor up to the national media). But commentary on Saskatchewan politics in the latter half of the year rightly focused largely on the Sask Party's mismanagement in 2009 and difficult decisions to be made in 2010. And with cities, school boards and others who will be affected by cuts to anticipated funding starting to speak out, it doesn't figure to take long before Wall's habit of promising the moon sets up a significant opening for a government which is better grounded in reality.

It does remain to be seen exactly what alternative vision the Saskatchewan NDP will put forward in 2010 and beyond. But the combination of NDP renewal and Sask Party tarnish should significantly narrow any gap in the polls just in time for it to matter - meaning that whatever the NDP comes up with in its policy process should have a significant chance of setting the province's agenda within the next two years.

On final tallies

James Wood reports on the final financial results from Saskatchewan's NDP leadership race. And if there's any major surprise, it's that the candidate fund-raising totals ended up substantially matching the result of the first ballot: despite a publicly-disclosed total nearly $12,000 behind Deb Higgins just days before the June convention, Yens Pedersen apparently managed to eke ahead of her in the financial department as well.

Now, it's not clear whether part of the new totals reflect some surprisingly effective fund-raising after the vote itself, or whether they mean that Pedersen's small-donor income during the leadership campaign dwarfed his disclosed donations. But either way, the example is one which candidates in future leadership campaigns and other races would do well to follow.

On impacts

Jason's list of which factors affected (and didn't affect) the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race is definitely worth a read. But I'll note a couple of factors where my take apparently differs from Jason's, as well as one more worth adding to each list.

Here's Jason on advance voting as his #1 factor which did play a major role:

1. Advance Voting
Did I read somewhere that Ryan Meili got something like 75% of the votes of people who chose to wait until the convention day, hear all the presentations and endorsements, see the buzz for each candidate before making their own choice? If so, it's tempting to re-imagine the results had everyone been required to wait until the day of the convention to vote. A couple real life examples - we had one woman at our table who said she was torn between Ryan and Yens based on everything she'd seen so far. After the floor shows were over, I asked, "So?" and she just smiled and asked if she could have one of the Ryan buttons I'd offered her earlier. I also heard from a couple people who said they would've changed the order of their vote based on the floor shows. I'm sure many others felt the same way. I still love the idea of every individual member being able to vote by a variety of methods (by mail, phone, online or in person) but perhaps limiting the vote only to the day of the convention would reduce the chances of people re-thinking (or regretting!) their choices? (Can you imagine if the news of the membership scandal had broken on June 3, only a couple days before the convention and after most early votes were already in?)

Now, I don't think there's much room for doubt that advance voting did have a significant impact on the race. But I'd disagree with Jason to the extent he's suggesting looking to limit its effect in the future.

I'd note first that the trend in other political forums seems to be toward a greater focus on advance voting. To my recollection the U.S. election in 2008 saw a record turnout of early voters, while the percentage of votes cast in advance polls was up in Canada's 2008 election (the raw number dropped from 2006, but less than the raw number of total votes). And as it makes sense for parties to want to lock in their votes early during an election campaign, it doesn't make sense to me to run a party's leadership races based solely on one- or two-day voting.

Of course, different timing for votes will favour different types of organization. And a longer voting period can favour a front-runner who's able to lock in a large number of votes early - as it seems to have done for Lingenfelter.

But it can also give more time for a social-networking model to reach a greater number of people, encouraging a better-dispersed model rather than a one-day phone blitz to reach would-be voters. And it wouldn't be at all surprising if some of the same ideas which have served Meili's campaign and other challengers well could be adapted for advance voting: wouldn't a "vote bomb" be an entirely viable response to any issues that do serve to fire up one's voters during an advance voting period?

Indeed, the biggest timing issue for Meili may have been the membership deadline which prevented people who heard of him only late in the campaign from casting a vote, limiting the amount of impact that his own online presence could have late in the campaign. And the timing of the vote wouldn't have made any difference there.

So the impact of advance voting should serve more as a lesson to future campaigns to take full advantage of the opportunity, not a need to change the leadership rules.

The other issue I'll raise with Jason's analysis is his take that the membership controversy would be classified in the "less impact" department:

This was the elephant in the room at the convention and I was surprised how little attention it got except in subtle allusions and whispered side conversations. Yes, the party did a report that cleared Dwain Lingenfelter of any wrongdoing but the day after the convention ended (nice timing there!), the RCMP announced they were investigating the matter then a couple days later, announced that it had become a criminal investigation. Some people are able to let bygones by bygones and chalk it up to "just politics" or "that's behind us now" but I think there are also a number of people who saw "Waterhengate" as going beyond the usual attacks and back and forth you might see in a political campaign. (Since I keep rewriting history in this post, I should also note that the flip side is that Ryan might not have had as strong of showing as he did had this scandal not happened.)

I'd be inclined to draw a far stronger conclusion as to the impact of the membership controversy. Remember that despite the large number of advance voters, the final vote saw a surprisingly low turnout rate, as over a quarter of party members chose not to vote in the leadership race.

If even a few hundred more people who didn't vote had voted with Lingenfelter, or if an even smaller number did shift their allegiances from Lingenfelter to another candidate in the wake of the membership controversy, then the convention would have seen a first-ballot win rather than the close contest that it became. And in the absence of any other obvious group of NDP member who would have had reason to be turned off by the leadership campaign, it wouldn't be surprising if Lingenfelter had gained far more votes than the bare minimum for a majority - maybe even approaching a 60%-style romp which would have served as license for him to marginalize the other leadership camps.

So while the membership controversy didn't manage to completely undermine Lingenfelter's campaign, it likely served as one of many necessary factors to make the race as close as it was in the end.

With that out of the way, let's add one more item to each of Jason's categories.

More impact than expected: One-choice voters

It's understandable that each leadership contestant sought primarily to lock in his or her own first-ballot support rather than encouraging members to take a closer look at down-ballot possibilities. But the problem with that strategy became obvious on voting day when a combined non-Lingenfelter vote turned into something less than the sum of its parts - due in particular to voters who had listed only one option on their ballot.

Of course, it's tough to say how candidates might handle that issue in future races. But it wouldn't be all that surprising to see some semi-formal alliances among candidates to ensure that similarly-positioned contestants maximize their chance of ending up on the winning team by the final ballot.

Less impact than expected: Endorsements

I'll make one possible exception here, as the joint Meili endorsement from former MLAs Peter Prebble and Lon Borgerson early in the race can plausibly be seen as one of the turning points at which Ryan Meili pulled decisively ahead of Yens Pedersen as the youth/renewal candidate. But even in that case, it's difficult to tell whether the endorsement simply reflected what was happening behind the scenes rather than doing much to shape where the race was going. And there's otherwise virtually no indication that even the biggest-name endorsers did much to sway opinions during the course of the leadership race.

Andrew Thomson's endorsement of Deb Higgins could have been the most significant of all in theory, since Thomson would seem to have been a natural Lingenfelter supporter based on his own positioning within the party. But it didn't seem to have any impact in bringing the centre-right of the party into Higgins' camp.

Meanwhile, a constant stream of union endorsements for Lingenfelter didn't stop plenty of key figures in the labour movement from putting their money and efforts behind other candidates. Meili's endorsers Nettie Wiebe and Maynard Sonntag combined in 2001 for twice Meili's first-ballot support in terms of raw votes, suggesting that past supporters weren't particularly motivated by their endorsements. And of course, the presence of a half-dozen caucus endorsers wasn't enough to push Higgins ahead of Yens Pedersen and his zero named endorsements prior to the convention.

Of course, that's likely for the best to the extent it shows that voters were deciding for themselves rather than allowing somebody else's judgment to dictate their choices. And indeed, it may signal how much of a grassroots organization the Saskatchewan NDP truly is - as no matter how well-known or even well-respected a figure might be within the party, no one person or organization was able to exercise much top-down impact on how members cast their ballots.

As long as we're following up...

Having looked today at what's been done at the official Saskatchewan NDP website since the leadership race, let's take a quick run as well through the sites of the candidates other than Dwain Lingenfelter (whose leadership site now features a thank-you for the campaign).

Not surprisingly, the site which drew the most attention during the leadership contest has been the active one since the convention. While Ryan Meili's front page hasn't changed, his news page has continued to be updated with both a press release and news articles featuring Meili. And that hasn't been Meili's only continued online presence: in fact his Facebook group - which features additional updates - has continued to grow since the campaign, having now reached 525 members.

Meanwhile, Deb Higgins has updated her front page with a message of thanks for the campaign. That leaves Yens Pedersen as the only candidate whose page is still the same as it was before the convention - but hopefully Yens' page, like those of the other candidates, will soon serve to support a run in 2011 or sooner.

Leadership 2009 - Yens Pedersen Afterword

There's plenty of reason for optimism about Yens Pedersen's future in the Saskatchewan NDP in the wake of this weekend's convention. It was enough of a plus that he exceeded expectations both in his convention speech and first-ballot results - but the fact that Dwain Lingenfelter has stated his intention to work toward getting Pedersen into the legislature should suggest that the rifts that sometimes appeared between the Pedersen and Lingenfelter's supporters during the leadership campaign are a thing of the past.

That said, while there looks to be no question that Pedersen has a bright future in the party, there are a couple of different directions that future could take.

The path of least resistance for Pedersen would likely be to leave the leadership race behind and effectively start from scratch in working his way up through the NDP's ranks. That would presumably see him look to blend into caucus to start with while learning under Lingenfelter and his more experienced team, with every reason to expect that Pedersen would have a seat at the cabinet table once the NDP comes back to power.

That said, the more interesting possibilities would involve Pedersen looking to maintain one or both of the two main messages he's sent during the leadership campaign in addition to planning for a seat in the relatively near future. The less controversial of those possibilities would be for him to look to put his "democratic socialist" stamp on the upcoming policy renewal process - which might do less to brand him personally for the long term, but could conceivably have the most impact on the NDP's direction over the next few years.

Even more intriguing, though, is the prospect that Pedersen might look to transform his most visible public persona from the campaign into a long-term position in the province's political scene. As matters stand now, Pedersen has won accolades from inside and outside the party for his own commitment to character and ethics in politics as well as in his career in law. From there, it would seem a natural progression for Pedersen to build on that reputation in the years to come as an outspoken advocate for transparency and accountability on all sides.

Of course, that might occasionally put Pedersen at odds with NDP supporters when figures within the party fall short of the standards he's set so far. And indeed to the extent Lingenfelter might plan to apply a "never explain, never complain" strategy, he'd likely want to avoid having anybody playing a similar role to the one which Pedersen occupied during the leadership race.

But I'd think there's a strong case to be made that the NDP would be better off on a couple of fronts if Lingenfelter offers Pedersen some leeway to carry on as a voice of critical analysis from within the party. For those within the NDP, it would send a strong message that the party plans to hold itself to high ethical standards - which can only figure to raise the bar for the party's own actions. And in dealing with the broader political scene including opponents and the media, the credibility that Pedersen could build up as an voice for ethical politics where his own party is concerned would make his critiques of any failings by the Sask Party resonate far more than would be the case for any politician who's seen to operate solely on a partisan basis.

Of course, it remains to be seen both whether Pedersen wants that type of responsibility in the longer term, and whether Lingenfelter would be less forgiving of disagreement now that he's the party leader. But nobody is better positioned than Pedersen to serve as the conscience of Saskatchewan politics for years to come - and both the NDP and Pedersen would figure to benefit significantly from the work which he could do in that role.

On wrong turns

For the past couple of months, my discussion of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race has featured charts with my guesses as to the outcome - the last of which can be found here. In the absence of detailed polling data or other information providing a direct indication of voter intention, I've tried my best to make predictions based on the factors that seemed to me to be at play. But in retrospect, there are a couple of areas where my assumptions were apparently off the mark - and I'll take a few minutes to point those out.

The first and most obvious is my relative treatment of the candidacies of Yens Pedersen and Deb Higgins. In Pedersen's case, I underestimated the strength of his campaign, focusing too much his comparative lack of public endorsements when there were probably signs of solid organization that could have been given more weight, particularly the logic underlying his phone poll process.

In Higgins' case, I likely did just the opposite, overemphasizing her positive moments due to her endorsement base and giving plenty of weight to media narratives which in retrospect were likely based more on her name recognition than on anything happening during the course of the campaign. And the result was my regular ranking of Pedersen as far more likely to finish last than Higgins (contrary to the final results this weekend). So my apologies to Yens for missing the relative strength of his campaign - and hopefully he can take some small moral victory in having proven one self-appointed pundit wrong.

The second broad area has to do with the relative likelihood of a first-ballot win for Dwain Lingenfelter and his prospects for victory later on. In retrospect my analysis wasn't far from the mark in placing the two most likely results as a Lingenfelter first-ballot victory or a final-ballot showdown again Meili, with little to choose between the relative likelihood of the two. But I likely didn't account enough for the chances that a Lingenfelter first-ballot lead would get him within a small number of votes of the 50% mark such as to make a later-ballot win difficult for his competitors as proved to be the case.

I'll leave the personal navel-gazing at that for now, and hopefully learn a few lessons to be applied to future analysis. But thanks to all who have taken the time to read my off-the-cuff predictions - and I'll try to be closer to the mark next time.

On potential energy

After months of a campaign involving serious discussions of policy and principle among four well-qualified candidates, the leadership race took a turn for the surreal at the end.

While Ryan Meili's campaign spent the voting interval on the second ballot marshalling every available troop to try to call potential voters to narrow a gap which proved too large to overcome, Dwain Lingenfelter's supporters started setting up their victory rally in the main hall. But within seconds of the Lingenfelter crowd to the right of the stage starting a "Link" chant in support of their candidate, a throng of Meili supporters (including plenty of new arrivals from the Higgins and Pedersen camps) soon assembled to the left with a "Meili" counter chant - which in turn gave way to an "NDP" chant bringing both sides together. One or more of those three messages echoed through the room until the results were announced...along with a tongue-in-cheek "Wallace" chant to beckon for the auditor responsible to announce the final numbers.

The contrast in the types of messages which managed to emerge from the crowds may ultimately serve as a perfect metaphor for the final result of the leadership race. The Saskatchewan NDP isn't lacking for members who are not only willing to show their enthusiasm, but eager to join forces toward the right end. But the NDP needs to figure out a common refrain that will actually unite its members - and any effort which fails to take into account all sides of the party figures to face vociferous opposition from within.

So what positives can we take from the convention so far? The good news today isn't limited to Lingenfelter and his supporters - though they're surely breathing a sigh of relief. Even for those who have been skeptical about Dwain Lingenfelter's run for the leadership, today's result should do about as much as can be done to confirm the fact that Lingenfelter can't afford to ignore the left side of the NDP.

Remember that it was just last year that the NDP faced a real fear that Lingenfelter's ascent to the leadership was a foregone coronation and that nobody would even bother seriously challenging him. From that starting point, many members would likely have been thrilled with the prospect that Lingenfelter would instead win a close second-ballot victory against a well-organized opponent. And if the actual result is still somewhat of a disappointment when something even better seemed well within reach, that's a positive sign as to how far the progressive faction within the NDP has come - as well as a hint that Lingenfelter would be well-advised to recognize and tap into the energy of his leadership opponents.

But then, the importance of working together and leaving nothing to chance should be no less clear to supporters of Meili, Pedersen and Higgins. After all, as strong as their show of common purpose was by the time of the second ballot, Lingenfelter would have swept to a first-ballot victory if any one of the three has been just slightly less successful in winning votes. And there's surely some theoretical possibility that it was within the grasp of the candidates to come up with the extra votes which would have been needed to push Meili ahead.

That goes doubly in the wake of what has to be seen as a disappointing level of voter turnout. Just yesterday, Murray Mandryk was commenting on the need to take into account the possibility that "while a spectacularly high number of eligible New Democrats will vote, it might not be unreasonable to suggest a five- to eight-per-cent 'no-show' rate." Instead, over 3,600 eligible members failed to vote at all, making for a no-show rate of over 27% - meaning that there were plenty of votes theoretically left unharvested which might have changed the results in any number of ways.

In the wake of a close vote which could so easily have gone differently, Lingenfelter now faces a double challenge. The first step is to make sure that everybody who attended the convention and showed their eagerness to be involved is inspired to keep doing the same - making sure to build a party that keeps convention attendees proudly chanting "NDP" rather than breaking down into internal factions. But the more important work is ultimately to start building a similar degree of enthusiasm among disaffected potential and current NDP members.

It remains to be seen how much Lingenfelter can accomplish on that front - and his continued focus on "winning" over questions of what the party actually hopes to accomplish in power signals that he has work to do in shaping his own message to the tasks. But it's Lingenfelter's success or failure in those areas that ultimately figure to define his leadership and determine the NDP's fate in 2011 - and there's every reason for him to want to start immediately in harnessing some of the obvious potential for renewal.

(Edit: fixed wording.)

Leadership 2009 - Final Prediction Chart

I'll close out the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign with one more purely guesswork-based chart as to the likely outcomes tomorrow. But first, let's note a few factors resulting in changes since last week's numbers.

First, the past week has seen a fairly consistent narrative developing around Deb Higgins as a "compromise candidate". It still looks like she's behind Ryan Meili in the race for second, but that kind of message along with a strong showing in tomorrow's speech could both push fence-sitters into her camp and turn some additional second-choice support her way - helping Higgins to regain some of the ground which she'd seemed to lose while staying silent earlier in the campaign.

Second, there's the Lingenfelter campaign's disclosure of its percentage of votes in the bank, coupled with a conspicuous non-disclosure about the raw totals. Again, that figures to offer at least some hint that Lingenfelter's campaign no longer considers itself to have a particularly safe lead.

Finally, today's convention was noteworthy in the apparent parity among the candidates. On the organizational front, Lingenfelter and Meili still looked to be at the head of the pack in terms of making material and information availabile to interested members. But in terms of identified supporters there was a remarkable degree of parity among the delegates, with Higgins in particular having more buttons around than I'd expected and Lingenfelter noticeably lacking for a substantial lead over his competitors.

Which means that for the first time in a few weeks, the gap between Lingenfelter and his competitors looks to have narrowed rather than widened. And that should make for a fascinating day of voting and results tomorrow.

With all that in mind, here's the final estimate as to the possible outcomes:

Candidate	1st Ballot Win	Final Ballot	Final Ballot Win	4th on 1st	Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter	43 (46)	43 (39)	10 (10)	0 (0)	53 (56)
Ryan Meili	2 (4)	37 (35)	25 (23)	3 (3)	27 (27)
Deb Higgins	0 (0)	25 (21)	18 (15)	5 (6)	18 (15)
Yens Pedersen	0 (0)	5 (5)	2 (2)	47 (41)	2 (2)