Regina South Nomination Wrapup

When the Regina South nomination race first got started, I figured both Heather McIntyre and Yens Pedersen would face some interesting choices as to whether to cast off their positioning from previous races. And both have done so with a vengeance.

After highlighting her ability to represent Ward 2 in last year's City Council race, McIntyre has made an explicit appeal to Regina South based on her being the "only candidate who lives in the constituency". Similarly, Pedersen has gone from emphasizing personal but unnamed endorsements as an outsider in last year's NDP leadership race, to presenting testimonials from the biggest names possible as part of an insider/frontrunner campaign.

So where have both candidates gone while distancing themselves from their previous messages?

On the bright side, both candidates presented some excellent ideas to spread messages which seemed to fit their image - but unfortunately, both allowed those to disappear during the course of the campaign. McIntyre's Coffee Talk seemed to be an effective way to take a conversational tone with possible voters visiting her website, but version One was never followed by a Two. Likewise, Pedersen put up a strong blog post on the WEPA when it was first announced which seemed to hint at more wonkish policy discussion than one normally sees in a nomination race - but he didn't follow up with a single post afterward, and his other communications through Facebook have focused almost entirely on photos and membership sales.

With those means of reaching potential voters falling by the wayside, the deciding factors look to be the traditional ones associated with any nomination campaign. And each candidate has had something to crow about lately: Pedersen his strong number of memberships sold, McIntyre her endorsement from longtime Regina South MLA Andrew Thomson. And the race has also become relatively chippy over the last little while (see the comment sections of my previous tagged posts) - which may be surprising based on the past connections between the candidates, but makes sense in a two-candidate race where there's no need to pursue later-ballot support.

So where does that leave the candidates going into tomorrow night's nomination meeting?

(Non-)Endorsement

I'll start by passing on what will become a regular feature in future nomination races. From the beginning of the Regina South race, I've been hesitant to get involved for or against either candidate, and I'll likewise hold off on making an endorsement either way.

Suffice it to say that both McIntyre and Pedersen are top-flight candidates with track records of involvement in the party and the riding. And whoever wins the nomination race should be an effective MLA for a long time to come starting in 2011.

Prediction

That said, I'll be less shy about predicting the outcome than trying to influence it. Both candidates have some obvious strengths they can point to - but the race will ultimately come down to who can bring out the most supporters tomorrow night. And the combination of a province-wide profile built during the leadership race and a high number of claimed new memberships looks to give Pedersen the upper hand against McIntyre's head start and high-profile endorsement.

With that in mind, I'll call the likelihood of winning the Regina South nomination at 60% for Yens Pedersen, 40% for Heather McIntyre. But in a race as close and as hotly contested as this one, neither candidate can take the outcome for granted - so tomorrow's nomination meeting (Sunset United Church at 7:00 pm, for those keeping track) should be a can't-miss for Regina NDP members.