Wednesday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading.

- Brendan Haley explains why the Cons' let-them-build-pipelines economic approach is doomed to fail from the standpoint of prosperity as well as that of sustainability:

There is a certain spirit of defensiveness and vulnerability behind the Conservatives’ economic choices. Ideologically incapable of admitting that the private sector can run into real problems, Flaherty pleads for corporations to start spending money again but has no policies aimed at making that happen. Unwilling to recognize the benefit of pro-active government policy the Conservatives see the bitumen sands as their sole salvation. Yet, such an economic trajectory could be disrupted if the world decides to take action against climate change.

Far from promoting economic security, the Conservatives appear incapable of dealing with the economy’s most vexing problems (dead money, personal debt, productivity, pollution) and their reaction in the face of their confusion is to pigeon-hole the country into a rather vulnerable long-term economic position, placing all of our bets on a global economic trajectory dependent on climate catastrophe.

In contrast to the conservative confusion, a social democratic agenda is especially suited to today’s challenges. More proactive government strategies are needed to deal with the private sector’s stagnation and loss of direction. Smart government strategy can coordinate economic activity towards building a green, diverse, and innovative economy.

- Paul Hanley nicely points out the Cons' Orwellian doublespeak on the environment. And Julia Dima reports that the Sask Party is continuing to hack away at a barely-existent set of environmental budget items.

- Brian Singh offers up a mixed bag of strategic suggestions for Canada's opposition parties. But I remain highly skeptical that "out-Con the Cons" is a winning strategy in either electoral or policy terms - as the same simplistic messaging and top-down policy-making which have helped the Cons make teh argument that government is merely a brand rather than a source of collective power figure to cause major problems for anybody whose road to success involves drawing more people in.

- Finally, I'll highlight a few post-campaign posts from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race - including Aaron Genest's discussion of simulated outcomes, Jason Hammond's comments on the effect of social media, and Liz James on the importance of the "long win".

Wednesday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading.

- Tim Harper reminds us why Brad Wall is thoroughly off base in claiming that it's the duty of every Canadian politician to demonstrate constant fealty to his resource-sector puppet-masters:

The Conservatives, of course, would like the entire country to come together behind their view of resource extraction, but the nice thing about democracy is it accommodates dissonant voices.

Keystone faces credible and determined opposition in both countries.

There is a longstanding protocol in the U.S. that politicians do not criticize the government while abroad, but if that ever was the convention in Canada, it flew out the window after Harper took aim at successive Liberal leaders while representing this country abroad during his minority years.

Mulcair owes Canadians consistency. Without that, he cannot ask them to make him prime minister.
...
If U.S. President Barack Obama eventually kills the Keystone extension in a decision expected this summer, expect the Conservatives to blame Mulcair for “talking down” Canada while abroad, just as they tried to blame then-opposition leader Michael Ignatieff’s comments for costing them a seat on the United Nations Security Council in 2010.

The UN blame-game generally drew laughter. Blaming an opposition leader who carried a consistent message south of the border for a Keystone failure should similarly be met with guffaws.

- Meanwhile, Clare Demerse tries to fact-check the Cons' attempt at greenwashing their atrocious track record - only to conclude that there are few facts to be found in their spin.

- Don Lenihan writes about the problem with a pay-wall model for online media - as many people seeking to read news online have rightly come to value the ability to respond and comment without others being excluded.

- Emma Burnell highlights the importance of "critical loyalty" in ensuring that political parties can build close connections while still evolving and growing. I'm pretty sure this isn't what she has in mind, but from my own set of loyalties I'll happily ask someone to pass the popcorn.

- Finally, Pat Atkinson and Scott Stelmaschuk both offer their end-of-campaign analysis at the end of the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race.

#skndpldr - Super Happy Mega Fun Pundit Navel-Gazing Post

I'll have plenty more to add in later posts about the opportunities the Saskatchewan NDP holds under Cam Broten's leadership. But before this weekend's convention is too far in the rear-view mirror, I'll take a few minutes to assess my own analysis of the leadership campaign.

And I'd like to think I had my share of successes.

My first-ballot best guess numbers were closer to pegging the candidates' positioning than any other poll or source, getting within 3% of each of the candidates' support levels. And my first-ballot analysis was on target in identifying exactly what Cam Broten needed to accomplish to have a chance on the second ballot - even if I underestimated his likelihood of managing to leapfrog Ryan Meili. 

But therein lies the rub: I failed to account appropriately for what proved to be the deciding factor, even after identifying Broten's potential down-ballot appeal as his biggest strength from day one. So where did I go wrong in expecting Meili to hold enough down-ballot support to win based on the first-ballot results?

My working assumption is that I failed to account for an "I like him, but..." factor.

For all the post-campaign spin about a divided party, all indications I've seen are to the effect that each of the leadership candidates was broadly liked by a range of NDP members extending well beyond his immediate supporters. And Meili in particular stood out on that front, with at least one internal poll placing his net favourability rating at +67%.

It then didn't seem plausible to me that an electorate where a strong majority of members even outside of Meili's supporters had a positive view of him would line up strongly against him on a second ballot. (And that went doubly when his second-ballot opponent had been tagged with a marginally higher "will not support" number, and when an army of volunteers was at the ready to chase down the vote of anybody with a marginally positive impression of Meili.)

But ultimately, there is a difference between liking a candidate personally, and actually casting a ballot for him. And Broten looks to have convinced a substantial number of voters who have a favourable view of Meili generally to throw their support elsewhere in choosing their party's leader.

In retrospect, there were some signs which I could have taken into account in seeing that as a possibility - including some actual second-choice data and Broten's slight improvement on my expectations for the first ballot. And indeed, both campaigns look to have been far closer to the mark than I was in assessing the meaning of the first-ballot outcome.

So my takeaway from the just-concluded campaign is this: as much as the HOAG factor matters, a modest lead in favourability may not matter much at all when party members face a one-time vote. 

#skndpldr - The Dramatic Conclusion

After the first ballot results were announced yesterday, I pointed out the 20% net margin of support that Cam Broten needed to turn a close first-ballot result into a narrow win. And that turned out to be exactly what materialized: of the 2,393 votes cast initially for either Trent Wotherspoon or Erin Weir, the final result showed 18% attrition, with 51% to Broten and 31% to Ryan Meili - leading to Broten's election as the Saskatchewan NDP's new leader.

But in retrospect, there was another, even closer vote comparison which may have hinted at the same end result.

Notwithstanding an entirely different type of leadership campaign and plenty of new participants within his own camp, Meili's final vote total of 4,120 was a jump of exactly 18 votes from his second-ballot total in 2009. And while I'm not sure if Broten's campaign focused on that number to any great extent, it turns out that past performance almost exactly paralleled Meili's results this time - as Broten's winning vote count was based on his accumulating just enough down-ballot support to eke past the total Meili had earned before.

So what comes next for the NDP? Well, I've been one of many commentators pointing out the diverse and complementary set of skills among the leadership candidates. And Broten's experience and support should make for a seamless transition within the current NDP caucus.

At the same time, there will be plenty of work to be done in keeping the new supporters of all of the candidates engaged - particularly Meili's grassroots base which produced so many of the creative ideas which emerged during the leadership campaign. And while Broten took some important steps yesterday in echoing Meili's vision and reaching out to the other camps, I'll hope to see plenty of people from all leadership camps looking for ways to stay connected and involved - both within the NDP and in the broader social democratic movement.

#skndpldr - First Ballot Analysis

The Saskatchewan NDP leadership's first-ballot results and ensuing developments are in. And while the balloting may be somewhat shorter than it could have been due to Trent Wotherspoon's withdrawal, there's still plenty of intrigue surrounding the second and final ballot.

The safest assumption may be to assume that down-ballot voting will mirror first-ballot results - in which case Ryan Meili will of course emerge ahead. And the absence of any endorsements in Cam Broten's favour will leave him without an obvious source of additional momentum to try to sway the few voters participating today (with only about 700 additional votes beyond those collected in advance).

But there's still a possibility that enough down-ballot advantages could push Broten ahead of Meili in the end: while a win by a net margin of about 20% over Meili among all voters who cast a ballot for Wotherspoon or Erin Weir doesn't seem particularly likely, it's within the realm of possibility.

My guess is that we'll see the two theories converge - that Broten will do better as compared to Meili, but not necessarily by enough to meaningfully close the gap (let alone overtake him). But there's plenty of intrigue either way as we proceed to the final ballot.

#skndpldr - Convention Decision Points

With upwards of 70% of eligible voters having already cast a ballot (and plenty of question as to how many more will do so), it's anybody's guess as to whether new votes today will substantially influence the results of Saskatchewan's NDP leadership race.

But for those still looking for a point of reference in deciding, I'll offer a reminder that it's possible to learn important lessons about a candidate by seeing how well he manages a public showcase whose planning is entirely under his campaign's control. And so while I don't expect to see any of the candidates radically change their campaign message, I'll be keeping a close eye on their ability to assemble a cohesive presentation within a 15-minute window - and whether anyone lets videos and supporter speeches get out of hand at the expense of any opportunity to connect directly with remaining voters.

Barring any major surprises out of the the showcases, I'll limit my posting today to a bit of Twitter commentary, plus blog posts analyzing the results from each ballot. For further coverage of the convention as it happens, see media blogs from John Cairns and the Star-Phoenix along with the always-active Twitter feed.

#skndpldr Roundup

With this weekend's convention approaching, we're starting to see plenty more media coverage of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race. So for those who haven't yet voted (or those looking for some new material generally), there's discussion on offer through:
- Metro's brief profiles of each of Cam Broten, Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon;
- Murray Mandryk's latest, features each of the candidates defining their view of leadership; and
- assorted other radio and TV appearances by the candidates (which I'll post if links are available).

Meanwhile, Wotherspoon's campaign is nicely prepared for the convention, having already circulated a video invitation to his hospitality suite. And Jason Hammond has put together a video review of Meili's campaign.

New column day

Here, on how the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign winding up this weekend looks to be well ahead of the party's 2009 campaign in voter turnout and fund-raising.

For further reading...
- The current financial reports from this year's campaign are here. 2009 numbers are from James Wood's post-campaign report, showing full-campaign donations of $131,132 to Dwain Lingenfelter, $62,231 to Ryan Meili, $21,725 to Yens Pedersen and $21,064 to Deb Higgins.
- Voter turnout numbers from 2009 are here.
- And for those interested in reading more about the leadership campaign as we approach this weekend's convention, see my own reference page (updated today) along with Leftdog's aggregator.

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - March 5

So far, I've limited these rankings to the question of which candidate I see as most likely to emerge victorious at the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership convention.

But since the rankings haven't produced any substantial movement, I'll include a bit more to this week's prognostication, adding my best guess as to the candidates' first-ballot support andestimated chance of victory.

1. Ryan Meili (1)

While I'm not entirely convinced that Meili is set to double the vote totals of his two remaining competitors, he still looks to be in the pole position heading into this weekend's convention. And the large number of votes cast in advance looks to be good news for Meili on two fronts: it minimizes the likelihood or effect of any concerted joint effort by the remaining two candidates, and it raises the number of votes likely to be cast in advance for one candidate only (which will limit the opportunity for another candidate to gain ground).

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 42%
Best-guess probability of victory: 65%

2. Cam Broten (2)

Once again, Broten may have more room to maneuver his way from second place into an eventual win. But it's still an open question whether he'll stay close enough for his down-ballot advantages to come into play - and even then it's not clear how many votes will remain to be won.

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 31%
Best-guess probability of victory: 25%

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

Finally, Wotherspoon's chance of victory is based largely on the possibility that we don't have perfect information about the candidates' first-ballot support. But he faces a tough road in down-ballot support even if he starts out ahead - meaning that like Meili, he may be best off with a high number of one-choice advance votes which reduces the count needed to win on a second ballot.

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 27%
Best-guess probability of victory: 10%

#skndpldr Candidate Review - Trent Wotherspoon

Let's close out my series of candidate reviews with a look at Trent Wotherspoon.

At the start of the campaign, Wotherspoon's campaign looked to have plenty of room for variance in multiple directions.

On the upside, his flashy and well-attended launch and early spending spree raised the prospect that he might be able to position himself too far ahead of his competitors for anybody else to catch up. But on the downside, he also faced questions about his ability to deal with tough challenges, as well as a risk that he might take on negative impressions due to the perception of a candidate with ties to Dwain Lingenfelter following a similar shock-and-awe path to victory.

In retrospect, all of the questions about Wotherspoon look overblown. He's generally held his own in the leadership debates both when challenged directly and in testing his competitors, and he's kept up his friendly persona throughout the race. But he also hasn't given much indication of building up a particularly large following as the campaign has progressed, meaning that he doesn't figure to be able to pile supporters onto a bandwagon based on an aura of inevitability.

As a result, Wotherspoon is finishing the race much where he started it, only without the room for sudden shifts. He's still near the head of the pack when it comes to the HOAG factor, but without a lot of evidence that his ease in connecting with all kinds of people has translated into a large number of committed volunteers; he's still slightly behind his fellow candidates when it comes to detailed policy discussion, but he's built up a few signature issues with the potential to resonate among the NDP's base and the general public.

Given the composition of the race as it now stands, it looks unlikely that Wotherspoon can emerge on top even if the three candidates are close to evenly matched on the first ballot. So what have we learned about Wotherspoon during the leadership campaign that could determine his ideal role within the NDP in the years to come?

Well, Wotherspoon has consistently included listening among his top priorities. And while he's proposed regular caucus listening tours as one of his main promises, I'd think his personal comfort as an ambassador for the NDP might offer an alternative.

If the party can increase its outreach by having both a new leader and Wotherspoon engaged in regular visits around the province, it figures to be in a much better position to connect with a wider audience and develop regular activity in a greater range of communities. And so the NDP's next leader may be best served to test whether Wotherspoon is interested in continuing his relentless touring schedule even after the leadership campaign comes to an end.

#skndpldr Candidate Review - Erin Weir

Following up on yesterday's candidate review posts, let's move on to a look at Erin Weir's Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign.

Weir's launch came at a time when it wasn't clear who (if anybody) would join Cam Broten and Trent Wotherspoon in the race. And under those circumstances, Weir looked well placed to serve as the outsider candidate.

But once Ryan Meili entered the fray and started to build his grassroots campaign, Weir was left with few options to carve out a distinct niche. And his resulting message track about the virtues of costing and planning didn't do much to overcome the perception of a somewhat aloof candidate - a factor which may only have helped Meili to sound inspirational in comparison.

As expected, though, Weir was extremely effective in both asking and answering questions during the leadership debates - and he put together enough fund-raising support and organization to keep himself in the mix with the other candidates. So if Weir didn't get enough of a foothold to emerge as a top contender in this year's campaign, he did position himself to be an important voice within the party for years to come.

While I'm still not sure that a focus on serving as the voice in response to every available economic story made for a particularly compelling case for a potential leader, it should rank near the top of the to-do list for an opposition party. And throughout the leadership campaign, Weir also offered the strongest opposition voice challenging the Saskatchewan Party's policies in substance.

Adding that track record to Weir's economic credentials and eye for policy detail, there shouldn't be much doubt that any new leader can put his talents to good use. In the short term, he'd be an ideal choice to take charge of the NDP's media and policy response operations. And Weir should be able to play a central role in assembling and costing the NDP's platform for elections to come.

#skndpldr Candidate Review - Ryan Meili

As I mentioned in offering my endorsement, Ryan Meili has managed to cover all of the most important bases for a leadership candidate over the course of the campaign. On the first primary question as to what vision he'd present for the party and the province, Meili always held an advantage based on the thought he's put into his book - and he's had no trouble defending that vision or applying it to all kinds of policy discussions.

But Meili has also been highly effective on the organizational front - eventually leading the way in fund-raising and volunteer activity, while also unveiling the most creative and detailed platform. And it's particularly noteworthy that he's reached that position as the last entrant into the race, and after making a conscious choice to get a late start on the policy front.

In other words, Meili has provided the most obvious example as to how the NDP can expand its existing reach. Meili himself has managed to move well beyond his already-strong showing on all fronts from 2009, and his campaign has proven the most adept at adding new members and integrating them into an existing plan.

But that strength shouldn't be taken to say that Meili doesn't have some room left to grow as a spokesperson and face of a party. His contributions to the candidate debates have remained far stronger in substance than in style - and his "inside voice" particularly looms as an area for improvement given the need to be able to rally ever larger crowds as the NDP builds its strength.

And while he's managed to emerge ahead of his competitors, there's still work to be done in continuing that growth past the leadership campaign - particularly given that his two remaining competitors seem to have managed to hold their own following Meili's emergence as the front-runner.

Ultimately, though, if the most important question facing a leadership candidate is whether he can keep up what's worked during the leadership campaign, that looks to bode well for his future prospects.
Mind you, I don't take for granted that a Meili victory is set in stone. So what would be the ideal role for him aside from party leader?

My guess is that Meili would be mentioned again as a leading candidate to lead the NDP's next policy review process. But if he were to lose to Broten (which looks like the most plausible outcome other than a Meili victory), it will be difficult to claim that there's much doubt what Broten will want the NDP's immediate policy to look like. And Meili's creative thinking could probably be put to better use than wordsmithing existing policies.

With that in mind, I'd suggest that if Meili doesn't win the leadership, his best alternative role might be a bit more specialized. Rather than being charged policy development generally, he'd be ideally suited to lead a "skunkworks" policy development team - tasked with thinking up (or seeking out) and developing innovative ideas which need further work before being formally incorporated into party policy, but which might serve to meaningfully expand the political playing field if they find sufficient support.

That said, the combination of principle, flexible thought and organizational skills which might make that a potential role for Meili also looks to form an ideal mix for the NDP's next leader - particularly when added to Meili's ease in winning over new supporters. And so I'll be hoping to see him emerge on top at next weekend's convention.

#skndpldr Candidate Review - Cam Broten

Apparently nearly 60% of Saskatchewan's NDP members had already voted for a leadership candidate as of Friday, and the remaining candidates are all launching determined efforts to lock in all the support they can before Tuesday's advance voting deadline. As a result, it's a distinct possibility that the result of the leadership race will be all but decided early this week.

That said, there's still plenty of room for maneuvering in how the candidates approach the convention and beyond. So I'll take the opportunity to review how the campaign has reinforced or changed my initial perception of the leadership candidates (including Erin Weir) - and what roles I'll hope to see each candidate playing within the NDP regardless of how the vote turns out.

I'll take the opportunity to note that this exercise has offered a useful reminder as to how strong a field of candidates the NDP enjoys. While I've pointed out relative differences and weaknesses to the extent they're relevant in sorting out the options available to voters, it's not hard to see how a party could succeed with any of the four as leader. And as I'll discuss, each of the candidates offers a complementary set of strengths which should serve the party well in the years to come.

As per usual, let's start with...

Cam Broten

At the start of the campaign, my impression of Broten was that he was likely to place in the mid-to-upper ranks of the leadership candidates by nearly any conceivable measure. But as the campaign has developed, he's shown both one distinct strength and one important weakness which look to me to define his candidacy (and his place within the Saskatchewan NDP).

On the plus side for Broten, he looks to have outdistanced his competitors in terms of developing and executing an overall campaign strategy - starting well before the formal leadership race and continuing throughout.

Broten started off the campaign with an immediate show of readiness, giving himself more leeway than his competitors to treat policy questions as having been dealt with (even if he was largely eclipsed on that front by the holiday break). While Broten has never looked to hold a lead in member support, he's always had enough in reserve to show momentum when it's mattered - particularly as the voting window approached. And even where his campaign has shown signs of weakness, he's been able to offer ready-made explanations (such as an appeal to donate money to the provincial party around the time of his mid-campaign fund-raising lull).

Similarly, he's developed a clear plan within the candidate debates and has mostly succeeded in sticking to it. And as I've pointed out, the "variations on a theme" principle looks to be highly important for the NDP's ongoing strategy in the legislature.

But while Broten has been highly effective in applying the techniques that the opposition needs to use to make a story stick to a government, he hasn't been quite so dependable in choosing his themes in the first place. Instead, he's left the most room for interpretation and doubt as to what goals he'd pursue.

Part of that looks to be the result of Broten's highly specific range of experience. Broten has the best command of the legislative process and media relations out of the contenders, but he's been prone to fixating on those areas of strength rather than broader issues which actually resonate with voters.

More importantly, though, Broten has all too often failed to set a distinctive direction for himself: he's proven his ability to make a case for progressive values and policies when challenged to do so, but has preferred to focus on jokes and platitudes rather than a broad vision when given an open microphone. And while it might be easy for him to speak from experience about process issues while leaving substantive policy to future consultation and review, that combination doesn't figure to motivate the base of volunteers and donors the NDP needs to build over the years to come.

In sum, Broten's managerial skills are at the head of the pack among the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership candidates. And I can see how he might be the first choice for anybody who sees the role of a party leader primarily in terms of organization and discipline.

But those factors shouldn't represent the first order of business for a party which needs to build its base of supporters rather than merely working organizing the base it already holds. And so my best-case scenario would see Broten serving as deputy leader and key strategist - while another leadership candidate with a better record of drawing in new supporters serves as the face of the party.

#skndpldr Roundup

With the advance voting window closing on Tuesday and the Saskatchewan NDP's convention set to take place next weekend, we've seen a flurry of leadership activity in the last few days - including both late appeals from the candidates themselves, and additional material for discussion.

On the candidate front, Trent Wotherspoon's campaign released his closing argument:


And Ryan Meili's latest video features CCF/NDP pioneers lending their support:


Meanwhile, the latest financial report served mostly to confirm that there's still a tight three-way race. Cam Broten took a small advantage over Meili for the most recent reporting period, while Meili still has the most cash in hand (by an eyelash over Broten). Which looks to signal that there's no significant gap in financial resources between the remaining contenders.

Finally, with the vote approaching we can expect to see more outside commentators adding their take into the mix. And Murray Mandryk's latest on the race offers a useful summary of some of the pros and cons of the NDP's leadership contestants - though I'll look to expand on that theme this weekend.

#skndpldr Roundup

For those of us curious as to why one of the most significant voices in Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign has been fairly quiet lately, Scott Stelmaschuk offered his explanation this week - as well as an endorsement that everybody within the party should be able to support.

Meanwhile, there hasn't been much other news to cover recently. Aside from a few more endorsements and some boilerplate appeals for support, one new policy plank has been added to the mix (Ryan Meili's announcement on co-operative economic development).

But the campaigns' obvious priority has been to lock in votes during the early voting window (ending next Tuesday for voting online and by phone). And with upwards of 4,200 ballots already cast, the result could very well be decided over the next few days.

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - February 26

For obvious reasons, there's at least one change to this week's Saskatchewan NDP leadership candidate rankings. But will there be any more news other than Erin Weir's withdrawal from the race at a time when most of the voting is expected to be taking place?

1. Ryan Meili (1)

Well, Meili for one should enjoy a strengthened position, with Weir (and by all indications his key supporters) added to what already looked to be the front-running campaign just in time to combine the candidates' respective get-out-the-vote efforts. And while I'm not quite as eager as some to declare the race over, it will be a major surprise if Meili doesn't at least end up in a close final ballot.

2. Cam Broten (2)

That said, I'm not sure Broten's positioning in the race has changed all that much following Weir's departure. He'll still figure to be planning for a final ballot against Meili, seeking to gain enough of an advantage among Trent Wotherspoon's supporters (based on the familiar experience theme) to overcome any first-ballot gap. And at worst for Broten, that gap may be somewhat larger now than it appeared before.

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

That leaves Wotherspoon in his familiar third-place position. And while I still see a fairly close contest between the three remaining candidates on the first ballot, the down-ballot opportunities for Wotherspoon are starting to dry up.

Until this week, Wotherspoon's best chance of assembling a bandwagon at the convention looked to come from Weir's Regina base: even a subtle shift in his favour between the first and second ballots might have given him the perception of momentum and helped to turn the tide in his favour. But with that possibility no longer available, Wotherspoon's only chance is to convince Saskatoon voters to support him over a more familiar local figure on a final ballot from a standing start - and without any assurance that there will be enough votes in play to overcome a probable geographical disadvantage in the advance voting.

#skndpldr - Moose Jaw Debate Notes

Let's close out my review at the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership debates with a brief look at the Moose Jaw forum - which featured a fair bit of talk about specific local issues (including candidate and member questions about the closure of the Valley View Centre) in addition to a familiar set of general themes:


Perhaps the most noteworthy theme throughout the debate was that of ensuring that the corporate sector shares in the province's effort to deal with social concerns. In response to a question on climate change policy, Ryan Meili pointed out the need for large-scale businesses to pay their share of the cost of greenhouse gas emissions - potentially both through a reduced rate discount from SaskPower for industrial users, and through a carbon tax.

Erin Weir then asked Meili about the "cognitive dissonance" between his concerns about the impact of uranium mining and his intention to allow mining to continue. There, Meili recognized the need to incorporate the broader effects of the industry into our public policy decisions, but also made clear that some alternative economic plan for northern Saskatchewan would be needed if the province intended to phase out uranium mining.

In turn, Trent Wotherspoon critiqued Cam Broten's water policy for focusing primarily on residential users rather than industrial ones. And Broten both recognized the need for provincial regulators to meaningfully monitor business rather than seeing regulated businesses as its customers to be served, and highlighted the mining sector as an area of particular concern.

In the end, that set of issues didn't give rise to much direct disagreement among the candidates. But it did help to flesh out some possible applications of an agreed set of principles - along with obvious areas of distinction from a government bent on elevating business interests over any other issues.

All of which is to say that for all the differences set out during the course of the campaign, the final debates offered a strong indication that any of the candidates can make a strong case for a focus on social values when aimed in the right direction.

Finally as a particular point of interest for readers, I'll point out one part of the debate which particularly strikes me as worth a look, as the responses to one member question (1:21:12 in the video) offer as strong a direct comparison as we're likely to see in evaluating the respective economic messages of the candidates.

On divisions

Dan Tan has already provided one follow-up post on the sudden rash of commentary arising out of Erin Weir's decision to withdraw from the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race and endorse Ryan Meili. But I'll take my own look at how the Weir endorsement and the associated reaction from the Village (or should we call it the Hamlet for Saskatchewan?) may affect the leadership campaign.

As long as there were four leadership candidates in the race, there were several ways to try to draw dividing lines among them. And the message that's suddenly crystallized in the media wouldn't have registered as the most obvious classification schemes.
 
One could view the most important differences in the campaigns were geographical, with Meili/Broten and Wotherspoon/Weir largely representing Saskatoon and Regina members respectively while competing for other votes around the province. Or one could contrast the above-the-fray messages and statesmanship from Meili/Wotherspoon against the more conflict-oriented approaches of Broten/Weir.

Even for those wanting to divide the campaign into Meili/Weir and Broten/Wotherspoon groupings, there were other more sound grounds for doing so (insider vs. outsider, detailed policies vs. high-level platforms) aside from the ideological framework applied by Gormley and Mandryk. And that goes doubly since Weir's narrow focus on royalty loopholes and criticism of broader review processes could arguably be seen as less ambitious (if more certain to bring in some additional revenue) than the reviews favoured by the other candidates in establishing the fiscal basis for progressive policy.

Finally, the candidates themselves had conspicuously avoided dividing themselves into consistent groupings - as each wanted to preserve enough distinctions from potential challenges on any one set of criteria by pointing out the importance of others. Indeed, as I observed here, Wotherspoon declined what amounted to an offer from Broten to divide the race based on MLA experience.

But with the field down to three and with Meili all but cementing his place on any final ballot, most of the permutations and combinations have disappeared.

Instead, the most important question from here on in looks to be whether members vote based on the perception of three camps or two. Unless Broten and Wotherspoon's respective supporters link their interests together in a way the candidates haven't done, Meili looks to have a significant advantage. But it will be well worth watching whether the media intervention actually encourages that dynamic where it might not have developed otherwise.

#skndpldr Roundup

Alongside yesterday's news of Erin Weir's withdrawal to support Ryan Meili in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race (also discussed by Scott and Brian) came a few other noteworthy developments - not the least of which was the reaction of the other two leadership candidates (discussed here by Jason).

Meanwhile, Meili released a seniors policy incorporating Weir's proposal to backfill against federal cuts to Old Age Security.

Finally, John Warnock offered up his latest thoughts - though I don't see his overwhelming negativity about either Meili's chances in the leadership race or the future of the NDP under Broten or Wotherspoon as bearing much resemblance to reality.

On effective departures

Obviously Erin Weir's decision to withdraw from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race and endorse Ryan Meili looks to be one of the most important developments of the campaign. While there's still a wide range of possible outcomes among the remaining candidates, the movement of any substantial portion of Weir's support should nearly ensure that Meili appears on the final ballot - and also figures to boost Meili's odds of reaching 50% support on an earlier ballot.

But beyond the effect of Weir's endorsement, I'll also point out the shared policy statement which accompanies his support - which both highlights the importance of Weir's being involved in the campaign all along, and finds middle ground in some areas where Weir and Meili have sparred over the course of the leadership debates.

Throughout the campaign to date, all three other candidates have declined to commit to Weir's platform on resource royalies (even while often speaking of them as valuable contributions to a broader review). But Meili has agreed not only to close the loopholes identified by Weir, but also to support an overall review to shape the NDP's platform for 2015 - effectively avoiding the "blank slate" issue that Weir has highlighted throughout the leadership campaign.

Weir's other areas of obvious influence haven't been discussed in as much detail by the other candidates. But the concept of incorporating a universal child care program into existing school facilities and the idea of creating a provincial benefit to offset any federal cuts to Old Age Security have both been regular themes for Weir - and they've now been endorsed by Meili as well.

All of which means that beyond his impressive contributions to the debates, Weir's influence on the leadership campaign now also includes a significant shift in its anticipated voting outcomes along with a direct role in shaping another round of policy choices. And we'll find out before long what effect those contributions have on the final results.