Friday, June 05, 2009

Leadership 2009 - Final Prediction Chart

I'll close out the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign with one more purely guesswork-based chart as to the likely outcomes tomorrow. But first, let's note a few factors resulting in changes since last week's numbers.

First, the past week has seen a fairly consistent narrative developing around Deb Higgins as a "compromise candidate". It still looks like she's behind Ryan Meili in the race for second, but that kind of message along with a strong showing in tomorrow's speech could both push fence-sitters into her camp and turn some additional second-choice support her way - helping Higgins to regain some of the ground which she'd seemed to lose while staying silent earlier in the campaign.

Second, there's the Lingenfelter campaign's disclosure of its percentage of votes in the bank, coupled with a conspicuous non-disclosure about the raw totals. Again, that figures to offer at least some hint that Lingenfelter's campaign no longer considers itself to have a particularly safe lead.

Finally, today's convention was noteworthy in the apparent parity among the candidates. On the organizational front, Lingenfelter and Meili still looked to be at the head of the pack in terms of making material and information availabile to interested members. But in terms of identified supporters there was a remarkable degree of parity among the delegates, with Higgins in particular having more buttons around than I'd expected and Lingenfelter noticeably lacking for a substantial lead over his competitors.

Which means that for the first time in a few weeks, the gap between Lingenfelter and his competitors looks to have narrowed rather than widened. And that should make for a fascinating day of voting and results tomorrow.

With all that in mind, here's the final estimate as to the possible outcomes:

Candidate 1st Ballot Win Final Ballot Final Ballot Win 4th on 1st Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter 43 (46) 43 (39) 10 (10) 0 (0) 53 (56)
Ryan Meili 2 (4) 37 (35) 25 (23) 3 (3) 27 (27)
Deb Higgins 0 (0) 25 (21) 18 (15) 5 (6) 18 (15)
Yens Pedersen 0 (0) 5 (5) 2 (2) 47 (41) 2 (2)

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