On spillover effects

There's been some discussion about how the HST will influence votes over the next few years - with Dalton McGuinty looking to have it considered solely as part of his party's body of work in the 2011 Ontario election, while the B.C. Libs hope to spread their province's even greater anger over a period starting with the recall window this fall and not ending until the 2013 trip to the polls. But it's worth keeping in mind that it's not only on the provincial level that voters will have a chance to express their anger.

That's particularly so in B.C., where the argument about the supposed "benefits" of the HST is largely coming down to Gordon Campbell's plea that province can't afford to give back the federal Cons' bribe money (and will take back the money that handed to voters to try to buy their silence).

Of course, it seems clear that the province's citizens were less than happy with the deal to begin with, and thus won't have much compunction about voting to undo it. But the more Campbell talks about the federal role as an excuse to keep the HST, the more the Cons figure to be dragged down as well as the debate plays out. And to the extent Campbell claims the province can't afford to lose the money involved, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the anti-HST forces challenge whether the Harper Cons want to punish the province for the Libs' mistakes.

As a result, a federal election in the midst of an HST referendum could serve as one more outlet for voters to replace a government looking out primarily for corporate interests with one that actually takes their concerns into account.

The situation may be different in Ontario, as the McGuinty government has chosen a strategy of taking somewhat more responsibility and engaging in correspondingly less finger-pointing. But it's anybody's guess as to whether that will hold up, particularly as the federal role gets discussed in the context of the B.C. campaigns. And while the Libs and Cons may be able to do little more than bash each other to a draw when it comes time to assign blame for the HST, there's one party that can stand above the fray.

All of which means that the HST is far from done with as an issue at either the provincial or the federal level. And there's a strong chance that the Campbell Libs' attempt to delay facing the music will only ensure that all of the governments responsible will end up paying a well-deserved price.

On damage control

So let's get this straight: after refusing to countenance budging on the HST either before implementing it or in the wake of an unprecedented petition campaign, the Campbell government is now claiming it's willing to reverse course based on a majority vote in a 2011 referendum.

Now, the move makes some sense from a survival standpoint as a means of delaying the recall campaign anticipated to start as soon as this fall. (And it'll be interesting to see whether the anti-HST movement pushes forward rather than holding off until Campbell's preferred timeline for a vote.)

But the province figures to be worse off on multiple fronts for the Libs having refused to pay any attention to the public until the last possible moment - then chosen to delay matters rather than reversing the HST immediately. And it's hard to see how they'll gain much in the long term either, given that the move ensures that the HST will remain a live issue long after they tried to proclaim it dead.

On confirmation

Not that it's particularly surprising that the B.C. Libs were less than honest in claiming to have never thought about imposing the HST until roughly three seconds before they officially declared it a done deal. But for those wondering when the paper trail would emerge, here's the answer: just in time to get the public nice and riled up for a recall campaign.

Monday Morning Links

An assortment of reading material to start your week...

- Gerald Caplan offers up a suggested Middle East reading list for Cons willing to learn about the true state of the world. Which should come in handy just as soon as they return from the unicorn riding academy.

- Ralph Surette nicely pegs what the Harper Cons mean for Canada:

One thing the vast majority of us are distinctly not waiting for is for the Harper government to actually improve anything, especially not to advance the cause of a properly functioning democracy. On the contrary, the drift is ominous: towards a tyrannical control from the Prime Minister’s Office aimed at dismantling large parts of the Canadian state, punishing anyone who questions its aims, manipulating information, and turning the society into an alloy of right-wing religion and big money.

The truly ill-omened part is that Stephen Harper can do this while in a minority. That is, even if the Conservatives do shoot themselves in the head — and they came close by destroying the census long form as a useful public instrument — they’ll keep governing in zombie form if the opposition remains as fractured as it is.

- Erin offers to sell out to BHP Billiton.

- The CP reports on what would need to be done for B.C. to walk away from the HST. But as ominous as the consequences are made to sound by corporate mouthpieces, they really amount to giving back the bribe offered up by the Harper Cons - meaning that other than having wasted time and effort trying to impose the tax, the province wouldn't be any worse off if it's repealed than if it had never been introduced.

- Finally, the Cons are breaking new ground in claiming that minority governments are entitled to hide all political operations from any opposition or public scrutiny. But once again, the "ministerial responsibility" excuse looks all the more ridiculous when the Cons' side is presented by their Pit Bull In Chief rather than, say, the minister who could possibly be responsible for the information suppression at issue.

Friday Afternoon Links

A few notes for the end of your work week...

- There's good news out of British Columbia today, as the HST petition looks to be back on track following the rejection of a corporate effort to have the petition ruled invalid.

- Tom Flanagan's bizarre commentary on the census has already been discussed extensively elsewhere. But I'll note the part that strikes me as most out of place: how exactly can one use a desire for "rational debate" to apologize for a government which has actively refused to say anything even remotely rational on the subject?

- Brian Topp's post on the Harper Cons' electoral math is certainly worth a read. But it's worth noting that while the Cons' overall support has largely stayed the same, its distribution has changed a few times over the years - ranging from efforts to woo Quebec to attempts to build a majority through ethnic communities before the Cons' current retreat to their hard-right base. And that may make for the most damning end result of all for Harper's reign as leader: not only have the Cons failed to get into majority territory, they've also fallen short while trying out the all of the most promising paths to get there.

- Finally, the Globe and Mail's article on the Cons' municipal campaign school points out some shady dealings that have been duly criticized. But the more important takeaway should be that the right is hard at work trying to extend its influence to all levels of government - and it doesn't do anybody any favours for the left to respond by declining to get similarly coordinated.

Friday Morning Links

A random assortment of information for the end of your work week...

- It's understandable that Bill Tieleman and other figures in the Fight HST movement are upset over the fact that a Lib appointee at Elections BC has chosen to stall the petition process. But it's worth keeping in mind that the legislation provided for by the petition is unlikely to pass the B.C. legislature in any event - and in the long run, the justified perception that the petition process has been set up to fail may prove to be the best possible outcome in building support for a quick and decisive recall campaign.

- Alice once again sets the record straight on fund-raising mechanisms for Canada's political parties, pointing out in particular that the oft-repeated theory that eliminating per-vote funding would harm the Bloc has no basis in reality. But I'd offer a reminder that there's one more factor worth taking into account, as thanks to the tax credit system much of the fund-raising allocated to "candidate", "riding" and "party" is also effectively publicly funded. (Update: Of course, there are those who won't let the facts spoil a poorly-thought-out rant.)

- Rick Salutin offers up an interesting theory as to how the census, like prorogation before it, may have served primarily as an excuse for voters to shift against a Harper government that's still out of touch with the public:

The long-form census shift was probably introduced as a bit of red meat for the Reform base. Yet the country seems to have seized on it. This is reflected by the downward Tory drift in the polls. It’s as if the population chose to focus on this issue, rather than the crime and fear agenda. They didn’t take the bait and they used the census ruckus as a way of changing the subject.

Jeffrey Simpson argued forcefully on this page that the census blew up in Mr. Harper’s face because our “civil society” – respectable organizations of solid citizens – rose up as one to demand their rightful stats. Yet the Harperites surely factored that in (or out) when they chose to neuter the long form. They likely thought such “elite” reactions would cut for them at Tim Hortons. But what if the unease out there in ordinary voterland is greater than it seemed when it comes to crime and the rest of their agenda. People might not want to go head to head with Tory heavies who come at you armed with costly surveys and public-relations advice. But they might be prone to shifting the ground to an unexpected issue, like the census, and artfully dodging an unfruitful debate about which they feel ambivalent. U.S. voters dive into issues like crime on cue from their politicians. Canadians are a slier and cannier electorate. Maybe they didn’t take the bait, and switched the topic.

We’ve seen that before, with the eruption of the prorogation issue and the arts issue in Quebec. Both served as pretexts to withdraw support from the Conservatives without embracing other parties.

- Finally, Don Martin's piece on Jack Layton takes a bit of a detour into analyzing the Cons. But it's right on point in noting that Layton's return to the public eye following a fairly quiet summer looks to significantly change a political landscape, particularly based on what Layton has been accomplishing in the meantime:

Jack is back.

That's good news for Canada's top political leftie, not so much for rivals Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff. It's been a tale of two leaders for most of this summer -- Prime Minister Harper for being in relative seclusion on a deserved holiday; Liberal Leader Ignatieff for being on the road discovering a real Canadian summer of beer and barbecues instead of his oft-ridiculed travel abroad to enjoy fine wine and French cuisine.

Layton has surfaced in the news periodically, but mostly toiled out of sight to line up star candidates for an election he expects to fight next spring.
...
While Michael Ignatieff's road-tested image enhancement and Jack Layton's return to active duty were bad news, Stephen Harper's biggest headaches were all self-induced.

That's why Layton was still grinning when an assistant dragged him away from a perfect-weather patio for a French language classroom. "Stephen Harper has become our best opening to attack," he laughs.

"He's pig-headed. My mother is absolutely right about him."

On narrow interests

Gary Mason slams the B.C. business community's decision to attack the province's HST petition through the courts only after a massive proportion of the province has already made its opposition clear:

For most of his nine years in office, Mr. Campbell has taken criticism for a policy agenda perceived to strongly favour business over unions. The business community has mostly rewarded that loyalty by donating generously to Mr. Campbell’s Liberals, helping to ensure they remain in power.
...
Now that the anti-HST campaign appears to have more than enough signatures on its petition to get a bill calling for the tax to be repealed introduced in the legislature, the business community has decided to enter the fray. With friends like that…

A coalition of business groups has asked the B.C. Supreme Court to rule the petition drive unconstitutional. The group’s argument is that B.C. does not have the right to quash the federally created HST.
...
There is a time and place for court challenges. But coming so late in the game, as this one does, looks cheap and undemocratic. It’s moves like this, quite frankly, that give business a bad name. Business leaders were too lazy to get off their duffs and do something when they should have, so now they are going to dig into their bloated wallets and take the easy way out. By going to court.

At this point the move is only going to make matters worse for Mr. Campbell – if that’s possible. The public will look at what the business coalition is doing as an attempt to thwart the will of the people on behalf of a governing party it has always supported.

Total recall

There's been no lack of talk about Blair Lekstrom's resignation from the B.C. Libs over the HST. But it's worth noting exactly how Lekstrom has framed his departure, and what it means for his former caucus-mates:

"It is clear to me that the residents of Peace River South are opposed to the harmonized sales tax and are unhappy with the way in which our government moved forward with this policy," he said in a statement released Friday morning.

"This is not about being right or wrong; in fact, I firmly believe that government is making a decision they believe will help the province, but as we have been unable to bring the public along, I acknowledge there is a need to re-evaluate this decision," he said.

"In light of the widespread opposition to the HST, I believe it would be prudent to bring the move toward the HST to a halt and immediately engage British Columbians in a dialogue about our taxation policy.

"This is a major tax policy shift, and it is time to engage British Columbians with a series of discussions about our province's future."
...
Lekstrom, who was a key leader in Premier Gordon Campbell's cabinet, also said he was quitting the Liberal caucus but will stay on as the MLA for Peace River South in northeastern B.C.

He has yet to say whether he plans to sit as an Independent or perhaps even join the rising B.C. Conservative Party as the fringe party's first MLA in decades.

So what's noticeably missing from Lekstrom's message? Strikingly, he isn't actually criticizing the HST in substance, or substantially contradicting the B.C. Libs' party line as to how it came to be - which looks to distinguish Lekstrom from politicians whose resignations from cabinet or party have been based on actual disagreements in principle.

Rather, Lekstrom is merely refusing to vote for the HST in the next little while pending future "discussions". And that suggests to me that his goal isn't to serve as the face of the B.C. Conservatives or otherwise take a front-and-centre role fighting against harmonization. Instead, his resignation looks to be aimed primarily at allowing himself to vote against the HST for the short term - presumably avoiding becoming one of the first victims of this fall's expected recall petitions in the process - while leaving the door open for a return to the Libs' fold after the HST storm passes.

Of course, only so many MLAs can get away with that type of move without costing the Campbell government its legislative majority. And now that Lekstrom has set the precedent, it'll be interesting to see who's next in line to try to avoid an immediate recall at the expense of their standing in caucus.

Wait and see

With the political scene in British Columbia seeming to have been significantly reshaped by the HST petition campaign, it was only a matter of time before the issue was raised again on the federal level despite the Harper Cons' attempts to distance themselves from the tax. And the NDP has found a key area where the Cons can obviously make important decisions one way or the other despite their protestations to the contrary:

Federal NDP Leader Jack Layton sent a letter in April to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, urging him to put off implementation of the tax until the referendum process is complete.
...
(NDP MP) Don Davies said there's no rush to bring in the tax before a possible referendum takes place, especially in light of the petition, which he called “one of the greatest expressions of public democracy in British Columbia history.”

“The least that Mr. Campbell and Mr. Harper can do is respect that by not proceeding with the HST on July 1,” he said.

“We think that the only democratic thing to do and the only smart public policy thing to do is to stop this tax now and let's wait and see what the people of British Columbia decide to do.”

Of course, the agreements signed to implement the HST seem to have been nicely structured to allow each side to claim that it's locked in by the other. But there can't be any room for doubt that the governments involved can override their agreement to impose the tax without considering the views of the public if they're both willing to do so. And it makes all the sense in the world to keep the status quo in place while the petition/referendum process plays out, rather than converting the province's tax system so as to make it costly and complicated to de-harmonize sales taxes again.

That is, unless the Harper Cons plan to hold B.C. to the terms of the agreement even in the face of a massive popular revolt against the HST. But if that's their choice, then it's only fair that they'll have to face the political consequences. And the NDP is nicely positioned to speak along with the public in condemning any decision to force the HST ahead.

The reviews are in

While B.C.'s successful HST petition and rumoured recall campaign have understandably focused attention at the provincial level, Charlie Smith nicely summarizes the effect that the continued debate over the HST might have on federal politics:

After the 1993 federal election, McGill University political scientist Elizabeth Gidengil demonstrated that the federal NDP lost much of its support to the Reform Party, which was seen as the party of protest that appealed to populist voters.

It was a counterintuitive argument because the Reform Party was adamantly right wing, whereas the NDP was a left-wing party. But in their heyday, each embodied the sense that they were against corporate and government elites who were trying to shove unpopular policies down the public's throat.

With their support for the HST, the Harper Conservatives have yielded this ground to NDP Leader Jack Layton, who is a shrewd observer of political trends.

Don't underestimate the NDP in the next election. With his opposition to the HST, Layton just might outlast both Harper and Ignatieff as a federal party leader.

Grassroots growing

In case there was any doubt that it's still possible to get large numbers of people involved in a political effort, the B.C. HST petition should put that to rest - having reached the required threshold of obtaining signatures from 10 per cent of the voters in every single one of B.C.'s provincial ridings with over a month to spare.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the petition will manage to force a near-term change in policy, government or both. But the fact that it's cleared what was once seen as an insurmountable hurdle should signal that it's not a good idea to bet against the anti-HST movement - and provide a positive example for efforts to get citizens engaged on other issues as well.

Still in issue

While the initial legislative debates about the HST in both Ontario and B.C. are done, the issue isn't dying down in either province. So let's note the most interesting developments on both fronts.

In Ontario, there doesn't seem to be much talk of stopping or reversing the move toward benefiting corporations at the expense of citizens. But it's worth highlighting the effort of one Lib constituency association to try to counter public disgust at having the HST applied to a wide swath of consumer purchases - by countering with a list of some of the areas that are mercifully unaffected. Which strikes me as functionally equivalent to BP declaring we should all be grateful for its Gulf of Mexico spill by naming areas of coastline elsewhere around the globe that won't end up covered in oil.

Meanwhile, in B.C. the conventional wisdom appears to have changed from "the Libs will ride it out" to "the Libs are doomed whatever they do" - and not without reason given the remarkable strength of the province's petition campaign. And it doesn't figure to be much of a leap from that stance to the view that Gordon Campbell and Colin Hansen may have to back down from their stubborn insistence on imposing the tax.

Tuesday Morning Links

So much going on, so little time. So let's deal with a few recent developments in point form.

- Regina Councillor Chris Szarka wants to put in place a Regina Big Home Lottery (wealthy property owners guaranteed to win!). Christine Whitaker responds by pointing out the problems with shifting the cost of services even further toward those who can't afford to pay more.

- Brad Wall's Sask Party government: consistently outraged that anyone has the nerve to seek out the truth.

- Two former Saskatchewan NDP leadership contestants look to be making solid progress in their riding nomination races: Ryan Meili has relaunched his website and funded his Saskatoon Sutherland nomination contest through a single money bomb, while Yens Pedersen is back blogging with a strong comment on the WEPA.

- Finally, the Georgia Straight reports that the Campbell Liberals have even more to worry about by way of public backlash to the HST as the anti-harmonization forces are looking at recalling MLAs. Meanwhile, Colin Hansen is shocked to learn that the rules apply to his government - while Elections B.C.'s rightful rejection of pro-HST propaganda makes it all the more likely that the current petition initiative will succeed.

Still digging

I'd wondered how it was that the Campbell government could ignore the funding rules under B.C.'s initiative legislation to plan a publicly-funded ad blitz trying to sell its much-despised HST to make up for the complete lack of anybody else willing to defend it. And it looks like the question is about to be investigated:

Organizers of the anti-HST campaign in British Columbia plan to complain to both the RCMP and Elections BC if the provincial government goes ahead with an advertising blitz aimed at their initiative.

Finance Minister Colin Hansen told reporters last week that the government plans to send out information to British Columbians defending its harmonized sales tax.

Chris Delaney of Fight HST says they believe the mailing campaign violates the Initiative Act, which requires that opponents or proponents register with Elections BC, either as an official opponent or advertising sponsor -- something the province hasn't done.

Now, it seems entirely possible that the ad campaign will backfire, both by raising public awareness of the petition drive at a time when it's HST opponents who face a barrier which requires massive public attention to the issue, and by adding a new reason for concern about the misuse of public resources. And the possibility of an investigation which might dog the B.C. Libs long after the petition drive is over should only add to the latter possibility.

Of course, yet another misstep shouldn't come as much surprise considering that virtually everything else about the Campbell government's decision to force the HST onto the province has similarly been made up of equal parts tone-deafness and contempt for B.C. citizens. And just as the B.C. Libs have seemed to be shocked at every turn as they've dug themselves into a deeper pit, it doesn't seem likely that they'll even consider the possibility that a woefully unpopular government might not want to keep using what little political capital its has left on a futile effort to sell a thoroughly-despised tax until they've damaged their reputation - and boosted the anti-HST cause - even further.

Tuesday Morning Links

A few notes for your weekday reading...

- I'll echo those pointing out Open Parliament as a handy way to keep tabs on the goings-on in the House of Commons in a somewhat more convenient form than is available on the official Parliament of Canada site. But I'll also remind readers of How'd They Vote, which is a particularly useful resource to decipher how MPs have handled their most direct influence over public policy.

- After the unfortunate demise of the Sasquatch, its sibling publication Briarpatch is now putting out a call for support. And if you need some political motivation, here's part of why the publication is looking for help:

There have also been cuts to federal funding for magazines, and what we see as a dangerous politicization of Canadian cultural policy: Briarpatch Magazine...was denied grant funding from the Canada Magazine Fund for the past two years running for what we see as specious reasons. (In one case, our grant was recommended for approval by Canada Magazine Fund staff, and then rejected by the Conservative Minister of Culture!)

- Meanwhile, before the Sasquatch shuts down entirely, Jennipher Karst's piece on the need for a food system that will actually encourage small-scale farming is well worth a read.

- While I don't have much to add to what Michael Geist has been writing about the global ACTA copyright treaty negotiations, it's well worth following along to see how any comsumer interests in content are being bargained away in secret.

- Finally, Bill Tieleman nicely summarizes the current state of B.C.'s HST fight.

Unopposed

There's naturally been plenty of talk about the B.C. HST now that the petition drive to repeal it is officially underway. But perhaps more interesting than the expected fervor of the petition's supporters is the complete lack of anybody making an effort to oppose it:

(T)he truck loggers didn't sign up to oppose Bill Vander Zalm's repeal-the-tax petition that began this week. Not a single entity has, and that means supporters will be limited in what they can do to sell the HST for the next three months even if they chose to get into the act now. That’s because under the Recall and Initiative Act, advertising on the HST petition is strictly controlled during the petition period.

Jock Finlayson, chief economist of the B.C. Business Council, was the leading proponent of an HST in B.C. and the de facto head of the pro-HST coalition last fall.

The coalition hasn’t met since the fall and the contract with the PR firm hired to help it has lapsed.

Of course, the Globe and Mail notes that HST supporters are trying to argue that they don't need to bother doing anything in response to the petition based on the Campbell Libs' devotion to pushing ahead. But it's rather odd to count on the sitting government as one's lone ally in the face of a petition process designed to give a voice to citizens the chance to override the decisions of elected officials.

That leaves the possibility that the HST supporters are instead counting on the petition drive to fail on its own terms - and the statutory requirements are definitely onerous for the initiative's supporters. But the more HST proponents send the implicit message that they can afford to ignore or belittle the public's outrage, the more likely it may be that the HST petition drive will be the first to reach the standards to get passed.