Saskatoon Northwest - Byelection Aftermath

The results are in from yesterday's Saskatoon Northwest by-election. And the end result looks to be yet another reinforcement of the polarization in Saskatchewan politics - with both the Sask Party and NDP cementing their place as the two groups with any substantial organization, while all three smaller parties utterly flopped once again in what may have been their last chance to put up any positive results going into the 2011 election.

Obviously the Sask Party figures to be satisfied that Gord Wyant managed to win the seat with roughly 59 per cent of the vote. But it can't escape notice that the NDP also managed to match the Sask Party's by-election trend of improving the second-place party's share of the vote, as Jan Dyky took just under a third of the vote in one of the NDP's weaker urban ridings. Which would seem to put the NDP well within striking distance of the seat.

That is, if there was any other party on the scene capable of splitting the vote so that the NDP could expect to win with a 40-45% share. But the lack of anything of the sort looks to be the biggest long-term story out of last night's results.

For the Liberals, the seat was one of the last three they managed to win back in 1999, and seemed to be an area of recent strength as well based on a well-regarded candidate (and blogger) easily exceeding the party's provincial share of the vote. And this time, the seat in play was directly adjacent to the Saskatoon Meewasin riding where former leader David Karwacki was able to turn out 30% of the vote in 2007.

But instead of being able to build on that foundation, the Libs' Eric Steiner managed a mere 3% of the vote - amounting to less than a tenth of the NDP's vote (compared to Ryan Androsoff's count of more than half of the NDP's share in 2007). And that looks to be yet another indication that the Libs are essentially out of the race even in what were their last relative strongholds.

Meanwhile, the PCs' effort to get back into the mix was even more of a flop, with Manny Sonnenschein's 2.5% share serving more to signal that any hope for the party to reemerge will likely arise out of rural Saskatchewan. And Larissa Shasko's 2.4% of the vote for the Greens looks to be a highly disappointing performance for a party leader.

All of which means that there's absolutely no indication that any other party will play even a remotely significant role in next year's rematch between Wyant and Dyky. And the more the NDP and Sask Party manage to show that nobody else is even close to contending for seats, the more likely it is that the battle between the two will only escalate as the general election approaches.

Updates and Events

A few scheduling notes to help Saskatchewan political junkies to plan the rest of their month...

- One NDP nomination race has come and gone sooner than expected, as Serge Leclerc's resignation resulted in an early nomination meeting in Saskatoon Northwest. Congrats to acclaimed candidate Jan Dyky, who will face off against the Sask Party's Gord Wyant in a riding which had seen nothing but nail-biters until the 2007 election.

- Also on the nomination front, I've previously noted the NDP's October 2 nomination meeting for Saskatoon Sutherland. But an equally important date is looming much closer, as the deadline for membership sales is September 18.

- As LRT notes, the events surrounding the NDP's Regina caucus meeting include a fund-raiser tomorrow night for UFCW 1400 members. So for those looking to have a good time for a good cause, now's your chance.

- Finally, the Saskatchewan NDP's policy review process looks to be kicking into high gear, with upcoming meetings scheduled for Regina on September 20 and Saskatoon on September 28.

Saskatchewan Nomination Roundup

A few notes on provincial and federal nomination races around the province...

In Regina South, Yens Pedersen has focused on membership sales lately, and is announcing that his campaign has brought in 65 new members as of last week's deadline. Meanwhile, Heather McIntyre is pointing out Kent's timeline of the race.

In Regina Coronation Park, last month's debate has been followed by a surprising lull in apparent activity. Roger Bucsis has yet to put up any apparent public presence, and Tory McGregor and Fred Kress have combined for a single Facebook wall post since then. That's left Jaime Garcia and Tamara Harder as the two candidates still making an effort to keep voters interested and informed online - though it's possible the others have simply turned their focus elsewhere.

But at least the NDP can claim that its provincial nominations are being contested. In contrast, Sean notes that city councillor Gord Wyant has been acclaimed as the Sask Party's candidate in Saskatoon Northwest.

Meanwhile, the Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre continues to see plenty of online activity, as Brian Sklar is making an effort to match Don Hansen's steady stream of posts. But does anybody know exactly what Brian means when he says he wants to "elect the first "Western Senator""?

Saskatoon Northwest - Catlin Hogan Seeking NDP Nomination

One more nomination note which I haven't yet blogged: Catlin Hogan, who ran a blog of his own for a time last year, is seeking the NDP's nomination for Saskatoon Northwest.

Based on the 2007 results (which saw a 23-point victory for Serge LeClerc), the seat might not seem to be a prime target. But it was actually home to extremely close races in each of the previous three elections, with candidates from three different parties emerging victorious. And whoever else joins in the race for the nomination, Catlin's early start in the riding should help maximize the chances that the NDP can flip the seat once again.