New column day

Here, expanding on these posts as to the show of strength from both Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon in the NDP's leadership campaign as compared to any of the Saskatchewan Party's candidates - and how that enthusiasm gap may be important in contrasting Meili against Scott Moe in the years to come.

For further reading, the past vote totals for the respective parties' leadership campaigns are drawn from here and here, while the turnout levels were the subject of more recent reporting. 

Leadership 2018 Reference Page

A one-stop source for general links on the 2018 Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign.

General Information
Saskatchewan NDP Constitution (PDF)
Leadership Rules (PDF)
Leadership 2018

Candidate Information

Candidate	Website	Twitter	Facebook	Profile
Ryan Meili	RyanMeili.com	@ryanmeili	RyanMeiliNDP	Profile
Trent Wotherspoon	Trent4Leader.ca	@WotherspoonT	TrentWotherspoon	Profile

Other Resources
Wikipedia

Posts
All Posts By Label
Endorsement
Non-Prediction

Discussion
Twitter: #skndpldr

On first choices

First-choice support for Ryan Meili in the NDP's leadership campaign: 5,973
First-choice support for Scott Moe in the Saskatchewan Party's leadership campaign: 4,483

Moe just barely edged past Meili's first-ballot vote total on the Saskatchewan Party's fourth ballot - when second- (or more likely third-)choice support shifted to him from voters trying to cut their losses within the Saskatchewan Party.

Needless to say, this presents a rather healthy contrast in enthusiasm as between the parties' respective leaders. And I'll look forward to seeing how Meili and the NDP can build on it.

Leadership 2018 - Convention Liveblog

For those following along, I'll be discussing the leadership showcases and voting results here. For now, stay tuned.

Before the showcases begin, I'll note that there doesn't seem to be a huge advantage for either candidate within the room - though the thunder sticks being used by Trent Wotherspoon's supporters make for a louder show. Wotherspoon will present his showcase first, followed by Ryan Meili.

Wotherspoon's showcase begins with strong testimonials both in person and on video. But it's striking that Wotherspoon's own words - even in video form - seem less organized and focused than those of the people introducing him.

Wotherspoon's supporters are definitely enthusiastic, giving standing ovations as his wife Stephanie and Trent respectively were introduced.

The catchphrase for Wotherspoon looks to be "hope, opportunity and reconcilation", as that phrase found its way into Wotherspoon's speech as well as his introduction.

Wotherspoon then delves into his platform, with mental health services and child care receiving particularly strong responses from the crowd.

Wotherspoon closes his speech and his showcase without any surprises, receiving a raucous ovation at the end.

Meili begins his showcase with the video used as his campaign's closing argument, followed by his introductions.

Lon Borgerson discusses his support for Meili based on a 48-hour trip together. We'll see if the showcase offers any new message to persuade people in the much smaller time spans available to reach most voters.

Meili also gets a standing ovation as he's introduced, and starts his speech by bringing a number of additional supporters onstage.

Meili contrasts a "garage sale economy" of the Sask Party against the longer-term vision of the NDP.

Meili's speech too is mostly familiar, including a concise statement of the "upstream" story.  And like Wotherspoon's it receives a strong response at the end.

The convention now breaks for voting, reconvening at 3:15.

Interim Leader Nicole Sarauer's final speech in that capacity includes details of funding promised in the provincial budget but not delivered - which will surely offer the new leader some strong evidence of a lack of fiscal foresight.

And the results are... Meili 5,973, Wotherspon 4,860. With strong voter turnout, Wotherspoon beat Meili's previous totals - but Meili managed to substantially increase his support.

Congratulations to both candidates for running strong and constructive campaigns - and it will be great to see that carry forward.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign as the voting window closes and the results are about to be unveiled. (Note that members voting online are able to cast a ballot until 3:00 PM.)

- Not surprisingly, the impending vote has led to plenty more media coverage, including a lengthy list of candidate profiles. CJME has offered detailed profiles of Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon, along with question-and-answer features with both candidates. CKRM's coverage of Meili and Wotherspoon is more limited. And CTV focuses on Meili's overarching vision of a healthy society, along with Wotherspoon's political experience.

- Ammerio Reza interviews Meili in depth about his plans for the campaign and beyond, while Greg Wiseman covers Meili's visit to Melfort. And CTV interviewed both candidates at the end of the campaign.

- Ryan Kessler reports on the candidates' final pushes for votes, while Adam Hunter summarizes the campaign to this point (and sets out today's schedule). D.C. Fraser discusses the difficulty anticipating today's outcome. Murray Mandryk argues that the key factor for the next leader will be his way of relating to Saskatchewan's citizenry.

- And finally, for the few voters who haven't yet cast a ballot, I'll offer a reminder of my take on what to look for in the candidates' final showcases today (though again I'll be surprised if it raises any problems for two experienced contenders):

Much of Stephane Dion's tenure as leader of the Libs was defined by a basic inability to handle even relatively basic planning and message coordination when it counted - ranging from his campaign interview false-start, to the late-delivered and poor-quality video that did so much to undermine the 2008 coalition. But less noted is that Libs had an obvious hint as to his difficulties in the area: at the leadership convention where he was elected, Dion had the plug pulled on a convention speech which seemed to bear little relationship to the time allotted. (Of course, that seemed to be forgotten by the next day as Dion made his way up the middle of the Ignatieff/Rae divide.)

So while it'll be worth watching how much the candidates can inspire the crowd..., we should also pay close attention to whether anybody's campaign shows signs of disorganization on the biggest stage the leadership candidates will face.

New column day

Here (via PressReader), on the importance of Saskatchewan's citizens staying engaged and active - rather than viewing the end of the main parties' leadership races as a basis to tune out until the next provincial election.

For further reading...
- Again, my reference page for the balance of the NDP's leadership campaign is here.
- And in case anybody is looking for issues worth organizing around, D.C. Fraser reports that Scott Moe is planning to echo Brad Wall's slash-and-burn approach to public services in his first budget. Alex MacPherson already exposed the Saskatchewan Party's plan for further asset selloffs. And Stephanie Taylor and Alex Salloum discuss how Moe is actively turning away federal funding in order to obstruct any climate action in Saskatchewan.

Leadership 2018: The Non-Prediction

In previous NDP leadership campaigns at both the provincial and federal levels, I've compiled regular rankings and/or predictions among the candidates.

Needless to say, I haven't done that for the ongoing Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign - in part because a two-candidate race has left no need to consider down-ballot implications, but also in part due to the difficulty determining exactly where the race stands. And I'll take this opportunity to explain why I'll also hold off on any predictions about Saturday's result.

In general, the issue isn't so much a race that's necessarily too close to call, as one which is too uncertain to call.

In most other campaigns, there's been at least somewhat more polling available to give some indication where the candidates stand. This year's race has featured exactly one public poll intended to capture member opinion - and Premier Cheveldayoff can tell us how sound its methodology has proven.

And in most other campaigns, there's been at least some trend among the other factors which I'd normally use to compare candidate strength. But this campaign has seen different results among those factors (with Meili leading in fund-raising and previous support, Wotherspoon in endorsements), and also no particular momentum for either candidate within those areas.

Complicating matters further, both candidates have a track record of late underperformance based on the 2013 campaign - where Wotherspoon's first-ballot count was far short of his own expectations, while Meili fell just short of winning over half of the party's voters on the final ballot.

And there are plausible factors which could have substantially boosted either candidate within the NDP's membership, including Wotherspoon's tenure as interim leader and Meili's election to the Legislature.

With all those considerations in mind, it's difficult to say more than that I won't be surprised by anything other than an outright blowout in either direction. And with such a wide range of outcomes within the realm of reasonable possibility, I won't be making any predictions as to which one is most likely.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign in advance of next weekend's convention.

- Murray Mandryk's questions for the candidates led to substantial agreement on most of the areas covered. But one offers a potentially striking difference in their respective economic plans - with Trent Wotherspoon's tendency toward stark yes/no answers suggesting surprising acceptance of head office subsidies:

Would you continue with the policy of offering subsidies to companies to move to or maintain head office jobs to Saskatchewan?

RM: No. This has not been particularly successful, and there are more effective ways of increasing economic activity and jobs than direct subsidies to large companies.
TW: Yes.

- CBC reports on the latest fund-raising numbers showing Ryan Meili with a continued lead. But Candace Daniel's interview with Wotherspoon includes the noteworthy take that Wotherspoon had already met his fund-raising expectations even while trailing Meili - suggesting a leadership budget below than the $200,000 maximum.

- Meanwhile, D.C. Fraser reports on Meili's concerns with the late mailing of ballots which were just received this week.

- Finally, Jason Hammond offers his take as to why members should consider voting for Meili as the candidate who inspires the most support among the people whose involvement could help renew the NDP.

Update: I'll add a link to Tammy Robert's apt analysis of the campaign - but add only that contrary to her expectations, Meili hasn't been shy about using change as a theme even in talking about the steps the NDP needs to take as a party.

Leadership 2018: The Endorsement

The ongoing Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign isn't the first time I've chosen between the two candidates. And it likely won't come as much surprise that there's little change in either my overall assessment of both candidates as eminently qualified and suited for a leadership role, or my ultimate choice between them.

But it's worth noting what's changed since the 2013 leadership campaign - and how it leads to my renewed endorsement of Ryan Meili for the NDP's leadership.

The most obvious imminent role of the NDP's next leader will be to serve as leader of the opposition. And while Wotherspoon's tenure as interim leader may give him some advantage in public awareness, either will still need to reach a large number of voters who lack familiarity with both current party leaders.

Each brings some distinct skills to the task of building a contrast against Scott Moe, with Meili's storytelling holding at least as much prospect of winning over voters as Wotherspoon's camera-friendly persona. And while Wotherspoon's stronger support among the current core of the party can't be entirely overlooked, nor can Meili's reach beyond the existing party apparatus.

I also wouldn't foresee either candidate having any trouble uniting the NDP alongside existing and new allies in the lead up to the 2020 election. And that brings us to the question of what might happen afterward.

In the longer term, the more important question for members to consider is what each candidate would figure to do if given the chance to govern. (Of course, that factor is also highly relevant to the goal of winning an election to the extent a vision resonates - or fails to resonate - with voters.)

This leadership campaign has seen Meili develop an appealing mix of both specific proposals and general principles for a future NDP government. And that makes it easy to envision what would change for the better under a Meili government - not only in terms of reversing the Saskatchewan Party's damage, but in the "what" and "how" involved in building the province I'd like to see.

Wotherspoon largely held his own on the policy front at the beginning of the campaign, emphasizing mental health and fixed-price child care as important signature proposals. But his policy offerings essentially ground to a halt midway through the campaign, while offering less detail than Meili's from the outset. And that makes for a particularly significant omission for a candidate who's also prone to speaking in terms of generalities rather than clear principles.

As a result, a comparison of positive campaigns has strengthened my take that Meili is more likely both to choose the right priorities in government if given the opportunity, and to better manage the unforeseen as it arises.

In sum, rather than deciding based on a count of reasons, I'll stick with one overarching consideration: Ryan Meili offers the best-case scenario for progress as Saskatchewan's next premier. And hopefully we'll get the chance to build toward that outcome in the provincial election ahead.

New column day

Here, on Ryan Meili's evidence-based policy - and particularly his thoughtful recognition of the issues where it's better to seek out more expert advice than make promises in its absence.

For further reading...
- Again, Meili's platform is here, and the sections on revenue and Crown corporations referred to in the column are here and here respectively. And by way of comparison, Trent Wotherspoon's policy is here, including his tax proposals within his general economic plank.
- And while Meili is no longer listed as one of EvidenceNetwork's academic experts, some of his past contributions can be found here.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from Saskatchewan's NDP leadership campaign as voting day approaches.

- There will be no lack of opportunities to compare the candidates within a debate format, including the NDP's Prince Albert debate...



...as well as SaskForward's recent Regina forum which was covered by CTV among others. And another party debate will be held in Saskatoon tomorrow.

And for those looking for my take: while I haven't watched the debate schedule quite as closely as those in other campaigns, the debates ghaven't particularly shifted my own perceptions or expectations of the candidates. Ryan Meili continues to be more at ease in both storytelling and policy details, but has been somewhat awkward in answering what seem to be repetitive questions; Trent Wotherspoon is most comfortable challenging the Saskatchewan Party, but doesn't go as far in explaining what alternative he's offering.

- D.C. Fraser reported on the campaigns' responses to the party's final membership numbers.

- Meili has unveiled new policy planks dealing with poverty (including a basic income program), seniors and cities, while also releasing a closing appeal:


- And Wotherspoon bookended his campaign launch with another well-attended Regina event.

- Finally, Murray Mandryk has written candidate profiles of both Meili (focusing on increased public openness to policy) and Wotherspoon (framing him in terms of pragmatism). And Jill Morgan held a Q and A with Meili.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign as the Saskatchewan Party's election of Scott Moe brings the province's political playing field into greater focus (while also offering a reminder of the fallibility of leadership campaign polling).

- Trent Wotherspoon has unveiled his post-secondary education education policy (accompanied by endorsements from several young New Democrats). And Ryan Meili has offered up his anti-poverty plan.

- Meanwhile, both Jason Hammond and Jon Herriot have offered their endorsements of Meili.

- Finally, Alex MacPherson reports on the NDP's membership numbers, with just under 13,000 members eligible to vote in the leadership campaign. For reference, that's somewhat more than in 2013 (which saw just over 11,000), and roughly on par with the 2009 leadership election.

Meanwhile, for those looking to estimate the anticipated turnout, roughly 80% of all eligible voters cast ballots in both 2009 and 2013 (though some of those dropped off between ballots). If that pattern holds, then we should expect the winning candidate to need in the range of 5,200 votes.

On consistent patterns

It's certainly worth being cautious about leadership campaign polling which is met with a challenge almost as soon as it's first released. But the NDP side of Mainstreet's new poll may nonetheless be worth noting, particularly as it fits in with other indications as to the state of the race.

In particular, the "Meili has a lead of 25 per cent!" theme may sound surprising because of how it's framed. But a 62.5%-37.5% lead now would be entirely consistent with the comparative vote share the two candidates won in the first ballot in the 2013 leadership campaign (61.5%-38.5%). And it's not so far off of Meili's 55.5%-44.5% lead in current fund-raising (PDF) as to look out of place either.

Of course, we'll have a better idea how Mainstreet's attempt to reach the voter pool holds up once polling is conducted based on the NDP's actual membership list, rather than an analysis limited to federal donors. And it's entirely possible that a similar critique of Mainstreet's Saskatchewan Party methodology may apply to some extent to its NDP poll.

But for now, there's at least some indication that relatively little may have changed from members' prior voting preferences. And if that holds true, then Meili looks to be in a strong position as the voting window approaches.

On permanent repercussions

When Trent Wotherspoon first announced that he was considering pursuing the Saskatchewan NDP's permanent leadership, I pointed out some of my concerns about how his previous tenure as interim leader - when he was elected after offering his assurance that he wouldn't seek the permanent position - might result in question marks over the leadership campaign. 

Now, a prime example of the problem with Wotherspoon's about-face has turned into a campaign flashpoint, as the administrators of the Save Saskatchewan Libraries group have issued an endorsement of Wotherspoon which couldn't be any more closely tied to his role as interim leader.

To be clear, I don't take issue with the administrators themselves taking a position in the NDP's leadership campaign.

The NDP should be eager to hear new voices participating in the leadership campaign, particularly ones who have so effectively marshaled widespread support for Saskatchewan's key public institutions. And the fact that a group was generally intended to be non-partisan doesn't mean its administrators should have any hesitation in applying their experience and opinions to the leadership campaign.

But that's an entirely separate issue from the need for fairness in the leadership campaign itself. And to see how that's been affected, here's Christine Freethy's own account as to how she came to endorse Wotherspoon:

I literally GOOGLED “Saskatchewan NDP” and said to the first person who answered the phone “I am running that library facebook group and I think you guys need to get your shit together and help us” Later that day was the first time I ever talked to Trent Wotherspoon.

At the time, Trent Wotherspoon was interim leader. And I am a political nobody who lives in Rabbit Lake. But he had seen the group and was plugged in enough with Carla Beck and the staff to know I was reaching out. I told him my plan - a non-partisan movement to bring attention to the library cut and force Brad Wall to reverse his decision. Trent listened and said “What can I and the NDP do to help your group?”

Needless to say, there's little reason to think Ryan Meili (or any other person who might plausibly have held a leadership position) would have done any differently given the opportunity. But only Wotherspoon enjoyed that. 

Because Wotherspoon was in the interim leader role based in part on his promise not to seek the permanent leadership, he was charged with leading the NDP's communication with Freethy, with the party's staff assisting him in that effort. And he was thus able to build a close relationship with an outside group which was doing widespread organizing complementary to that of the party - resulting in an endorsement which reached a wide range of actual and potential members just in time for the membership deadline.

There may not be much which can be done to alleviate that gap now. But in comparing the candidates, the NDP's members will need to test their own impressions of Wotherspoon to see how they might reflect the advantage he captured in the interim role. And there may be significant legitimacy issues for the party as a whole if the race ends up turning on a candidate's gaining an advantage from a broken promise.

On last chances

I'll offer one last reminder that tomorrow at 5 PM is the membership deadline for the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race.

Sure, the Saskatchewan Party will soon be deciding on a new hood ornament for their continuing trip to nowhere. But only the NDP's leadership campaign offers the prospect of a much-needed change in direction - and whether one is partial to either of the candidates or still undecided, it'll be well worth the investment to participate in helping to shape it.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from Saskatchewan's NDP leadership campaign as the entry deadline has passed and the membership deadline approaches.

- While I haven't tracked endorsements all that closely, it's certainly worth keeping track of any changes since previous leadership campaigns between two candidates who have run before. And on that front, it's worth noting that 2009 and 2013 Meili endorser Dion Tchorzewski has joined 2013 campaign manager Nicole White in supporting Wotherspoon. 

- Meanwhile, Trevor Herriot offers his take on the importance of leadership which can build bridges rather than merely keeping us where we are - which Herriot himself notes is an expression of support for Meili.

- Tanner Wallace-Scribner reports on Meili's visit to Swift Current, including his take on the use of the proceeds of marijuana sales:

"I think there is some debate to be had about the best way to retail it," he said. "One thing I would say is, the money that comes in, we should make sure that every cent goes to support mental health and addictions. To support anyone who is struggling with any addictions but also to invest in that really under-resourced part of our health system."

Meili added they need to focus the money they make off of the sale of marijuana and put it towards making peoples' lives better.

- Brian Zinchuk interviews Wotherspoon about his plans for the energy sector, including the need for regular royalty reviews to ensure the public receives fair value for our resources.And Nykole King previews tonight's debate at the University of Saskatchewan.

- Finally, Meili has unveiled his arts and culture policy ahead of a series of music events.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign as the January 19 membership deadline approaches.

- CBC and Colton Praill each reported on this weekend's debate in Moose Jaw, with both reports focusing on a combination of general similarities with slight nuances.

- Devin Wilger reported on Trent Wotherspoon's visit to Yorkton, while the Parkland Review noted his time in Nipawin.

- Meanwhile, Brian Zinchuk interviewed Ryan Meili in some depth about about his plans for energy and the resource sector, while Meili also launched an updated version of his book A Healthy Society. (For those interested, I've discussed the first version in previous blog posts.)

- Finally, Jason Hammond offers his take on how the Saskatchewan Party's leadership process might influence NDP voters - and theorizes that the styles and backgrounds of the two candidates could have substantially different effects depending on the Sask Party's choice of leaders.

On entrenchment

Following up on my earlier post and column, let's start taking a look at some of the more distinctive policy proposals on offer between Saskatchewan's NDP leadership candidates.

Probably the most noteworthy single promise so far is this from Trent Wotherspoon as part of his platform on Crown corporations:

Lock down our Crown Corporations and ensure they’re around for generations to come by putting the requirement for a referendum before any sale into the constitution…

Of course, the previous NDP government took steps to protect the Crowns through legislation, with decidedly mixed results. The Saskatchewan Party was cowed into acceding to the Crown Corporations Public Ownership Act. But it eventually felt entirely comfortable both selling off any public assets that weren’t specifically named, and indirectly attacking or ignoring the legislation itself after acceding to its terms once (PDF).

The major advantage of Wotherspoon’s proposal would then be to avoid allowing a single provincial government to sell off a Crown on its own to the extent a sale fell under the new constitutional definition.

But even if the NDP found a federal government willing to cooperate in passing a constitutional amendment to protect public ownership (which is far from clear with either the Libs or Cons in power, plus a requirement for Senate approval), it would face some logistical difficulties.

In order to lock down all Crowns, a constitutional amendment would need to be extremely specific in limiting all means of disposing of or reducing the public ownership of a clear and expansive list of assets. But there's some point where wording intended to protect against ill-advised sell-offs would also limit the ability to operate Crowns effectively by deciding whether some assets and lines of business might no longer fit within the public interest.

Meanwhile, it's also not clear that any protection would be extended to future Crowns which might be developed absent another set of constitutional amendments. And so any debate over a constitutional amendment, as well as any actual implementation, would likely be backward-looking rather than forward-looking.

Finally, the same process used to apply a constitutional amendment could eventually be used to reverse it - meaning that a single term of right-wing government at both levels could undo it in an instant. (And unlike the legislation still on the books, that process wouldn't necessarily involve any public consultation.)

To be clear, some of Wotherspoon's other proposals do rightly address broader issues and opportunities in the Crown sector. But they rank lower in priority and prominence than the constitutional proposal.

In contrast, Meili's platform plank on Crowns includes substantially more discussion as to where it's possible to expand on the services and industries currently included in the sector. And the future of our common wealth likely lies more in confirming for the public how the province benefits from treating Crowns as a valuable part of our economy and political system - not focusing on process to save them in form.

In sum, while it's well worth discussing how to protect and build Saskatchewan's Crown sector from corporatist politics, it's also worth questioning whether a constitutional amendment is the place to start.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign.

- Devin Tasa reported on the Nipawin debate, while the Estevan Mercury covered Ryan Meili's visit. Adam Hunter reported on Trent Wotherspoon's mistaken province-wide television ad. And Alex MacPherson and D.C. Fraser's notebook continues to offer some coverage, including the latest on the candidates' fund-raising totals.

- Phil Tank compared the candidates from both provincial leadership campaigns in their plans for the Meewasin Valley Authority. And the Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation likewise took note of the candidates' education plans across party lines.

- While I haven't focused much on endorsements, the most prominent recent ones include an interesting divide between Wotherspoon's support from familiar Saskatchewan NDP figures including Anne Blakeney and Cam Broten, and Meili's from the broader progressive movement including Thomas Mulcair and Harry Leslie Smith.

- Finally, Ryan Meili has released a membership pitch connecting his farm background to the importance of community support for people:

New column day

Here, on some of the economic ideas on offer from Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon in Saskatchewan's NDP leadership campaign.

For further reading...
- I've talked about some of the points of commonality between the candidates' platforms here.
- And the column responds in part to Murray Mandryk's view that there's some lack of talk about economic vision and other pocketbook issues in the NDP campaign.