#SKNDPLDR Roundup

So far, the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign has been awfully quiet. And with a membership deadline looming for anybody who wants to be able to vote in the leadership election, time is running out for anybody looking to attract support from outside the party's existing membership base.

While it remains to be seen whether she'll success, Kaitlyn Harvey has taken a couple of steps which should pique some interest: announcing the endorsement of Seth Klein as one of the country's prominent voices for climate action, and unveiling a platform based on principles of sustainability and harm prevention, as well as a far more honest assessment of the costs of maintaining the status quo. 

There's some obvious potential for those messages both in establishing Harvey's bona fides within the climate justice movement, and for the party's future path as a part of that movement. But time is running short to convert that potential into memberships and votes. 

Meanwhile, Carla Beck's campaign has demurred from releasing a detailed platform. Instead, she's offered a list of priorities with a few policy proposals, along with an explanation for not going into much more detail than that. (And there's actually another reasonable argument on that point which she doesn't address, which is the effort underway to improve the NDP's internal policy development.) 

Not surprisingly, Beck has also added to her list of endorsements - though it's hard to see those as a novel development in a race where she's had establishment support lined up behind her from day one. 

We'll find out fairly soon whether there are any surprises in the membership numbers which may affect the balance of the race. In the meantime, though, a quiet campaign looks to favour Beck as the default favourite. 

#Elxn44 E-Day Links

News and notes as Canada's federal election draws to a close.

- David Moscrop discusses how a campaign nobody wanted is leaning toward grudging continuation of the status quo which the Libs tried to discard. And Ryan Maloney reports on the technical problems arising largely out of a snap pandemic election. 

- The Star offers its endorsement - which predictably supports the Libs, but recognizes both the contribution the NDP has made in responding to the pandemic so far and the need for it to be strengthened in pushing for progressive policy going forward. And Alex Ballingall reports on Jagmeet Singh's pursuit of tax fairness as the key to NDP support once voters have had our say. 

- PressProgress reports on the choice of multiple Con MPs to use a petition service which sends signatories' data to be used by far-right groups in Europe. And Caroline Orr writes about the connection between anti-vaxxers and the far-right PPC - and how the election doesn't figure to be the end of the story. 

- Meanwhile, Dave Cournoyer discusses Alberta's impact on the election - which now figures to be based primarily on the motivation of voters across Canada to avoid a Kenney-style catastrophe. 

- Finally, Olamide Olaniyan writes that systemic racism should be a major election issue - though it's worth noting that at least one party does actually take it seriously from a policy standpoint. 

Leadership 2018: The Endorsement

The ongoing Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign isn't the first time I've chosen between the two candidates. And it likely won't come as much surprise that there's little change in either my overall assessment of both candidates as eminently qualified and suited for a leadership role, or my ultimate choice between them.

But it's worth noting what's changed since the 2013 leadership campaign - and how it leads to my renewed endorsement of Ryan Meili for the NDP's leadership.

The most obvious imminent role of the NDP's next leader will be to serve as leader of the opposition. And while Wotherspoon's tenure as interim leader may give him some advantage in public awareness, either will still need to reach a large number of voters who lack familiarity with both current party leaders.

Each brings some distinct skills to the task of building a contrast against Scott Moe, with Meili's storytelling holding at least as much prospect of winning over voters as Wotherspoon's camera-friendly persona. And while Wotherspoon's stronger support among the current core of the party can't be entirely overlooked, nor can Meili's reach beyond the existing party apparatus.

I also wouldn't foresee either candidate having any trouble uniting the NDP alongside existing and new allies in the lead up to the 2020 election. And that brings us to the question of what might happen afterward.

In the longer term, the more important question for members to consider is what each candidate would figure to do if given the chance to govern. (Of course, that factor is also highly relevant to the goal of winning an election to the extent a vision resonates - or fails to resonate - with voters.)

This leadership campaign has seen Meili develop an appealing mix of both specific proposals and general principles for a future NDP government. And that makes it easy to envision what would change for the better under a Meili government - not only in terms of reversing the Saskatchewan Party's damage, but in the "what" and "how" involved in building the province I'd like to see.

Wotherspoon largely held his own on the policy front at the beginning of the campaign, emphasizing mental health and fixed-price child care as important signature proposals. But his policy offerings essentially ground to a halt midway through the campaign, while offering less detail than Meili's from the outset. And that makes for a particularly significant omission for a candidate who's also prone to speaking in terms of generalities rather than clear principles.

As a result, a comparison of positive campaigns has strengthened my take that Meili is more likely both to choose the right priorities in government if given the opportunity, and to better manage the unforeseen as it arises.

In sum, rather than deciding based on a count of reasons, I'll stick with one overarching consideration: Ryan Meili offers the best-case scenario for progress as Saskatchewan's next premier. And hopefully we'll get the chance to build toward that outcome in the provincial election ahead.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign as the Saskatchewan Party's election of Scott Moe brings the province's political playing field into greater focus (while also offering a reminder of the fallibility of leadership campaign polling).

- Trent Wotherspoon has unveiled his post-secondary education education policy (accompanied by endorsements from several young New Democrats). And Ryan Meili has offered up his anti-poverty plan.

- Meanwhile, both Jason Hammond and Jon Herriot have offered their endorsements of Meili.

- Finally, Alex MacPherson reports on the NDP's membership numbers, with just under 13,000 members eligible to vote in the leadership campaign. For reference, that's somewhat more than in 2013 (which saw just over 11,000), and roughly on par with the 2009 leadership election.

Meanwhile, for those looking to estimate the anticipated turnout, roughly 80% of all eligible voters cast ballots in both 2009 and 2013 (though some of those dropped off between ballots). If that pattern holds, then we should expect the winning candidate to need in the range of 5,200 votes.

On permanent repercussions

When Trent Wotherspoon first announced that he was considering pursuing the Saskatchewan NDP's permanent leadership, I pointed out some of my concerns about how his previous tenure as interim leader - when he was elected after offering his assurance that he wouldn't seek the permanent position - might result in question marks over the leadership campaign. 

Now, a prime example of the problem with Wotherspoon's about-face has turned into a campaign flashpoint, as the administrators of the Save Saskatchewan Libraries group have issued an endorsement of Wotherspoon which couldn't be any more closely tied to his role as interim leader.

To be clear, I don't take issue with the administrators themselves taking a position in the NDP's leadership campaign.

The NDP should be eager to hear new voices participating in the leadership campaign, particularly ones who have so effectively marshaled widespread support for Saskatchewan's key public institutions. And the fact that a group was generally intended to be non-partisan doesn't mean its administrators should have any hesitation in applying their experience and opinions to the leadership campaign.

But that's an entirely separate issue from the need for fairness in the leadership campaign itself. And to see how that's been affected, here's Christine Freethy's own account as to how she came to endorse Wotherspoon:

I literally GOOGLED “Saskatchewan NDP” and said to the first person who answered the phone “I am running that library facebook group and I think you guys need to get your shit together and help us” Later that day was the first time I ever talked to Trent Wotherspoon.

At the time, Trent Wotherspoon was interim leader. And I am a political nobody who lives in Rabbit Lake. But he had seen the group and was plugged in enough with Carla Beck and the staff to know I was reaching out. I told him my plan - a non-partisan movement to bring attention to the library cut and force Brad Wall to reverse his decision. Trent listened and said “What can I and the NDP do to help your group?”

Needless to say, there's little reason to think Ryan Meili (or any other person who might plausibly have held a leadership position) would have done any differently given the opportunity. But only Wotherspoon enjoyed that. 

Because Wotherspoon was in the interim leader role based in part on his promise not to seek the permanent leadership, he was charged with leading the NDP's communication with Freethy, with the party's staff assisting him in that effort. And he was thus able to build a close relationship with an outside group which was doing widespread organizing complementary to that of the party - resulting in an endorsement which reached a wide range of actual and potential members just in time for the membership deadline.

There may not be much which can be done to alleviate that gap now. But in comparing the candidates, the NDP's members will need to test their own impressions of Wotherspoon to see how they might reflect the advantage he captured in the interim role. And there may be significant legitimacy issues for the party as a whole if the race ends up turning on a candidate's gaining an advantage from a broken promise.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from Saskatchewan's NDP leadership campaign as the entry deadline has passed and the membership deadline approaches.

- While I haven't tracked endorsements all that closely, it's certainly worth keeping track of any changes since previous leadership campaigns between two candidates who have run before. And on that front, it's worth noting that 2009 and 2013 Meili endorser Dion Tchorzewski has joined 2013 campaign manager Nicole White in supporting Wotherspoon. 

- Meanwhile, Trevor Herriot offers his take on the importance of leadership which can build bridges rather than merely keeping us where we are - which Herriot himself notes is an expression of support for Meili.

- Tanner Wallace-Scribner reports on Meili's visit to Swift Current, including his take on the use of the proceeds of marijuana sales:

"I think there is some debate to be had about the best way to retail it," he said. "One thing I would say is, the money that comes in, we should make sure that every cent goes to support mental health and addictions. To support anyone who is struggling with any addictions but also to invest in that really under-resourced part of our health system."

Meili added they need to focus the money they make off of the sale of marijuana and put it towards making peoples' lives better.

- Brian Zinchuk interviews Wotherspoon about his plans for the energy sector, including the need for regular royalty reviews to ensure the public receives fair value for our resources.And Nykole King previews tonight's debate at the University of Saskatchewan.

- Finally, Meili has unveiled his arts and culture policy ahead of a series of music events.

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign.

- Devin Tasa reported on the Nipawin debate, while the Estevan Mercury covered Ryan Meili's visit. Adam Hunter reported on Trent Wotherspoon's mistaken province-wide television ad. And Alex MacPherson and D.C. Fraser's notebook continues to offer some coverage, including the latest on the candidates' fund-raising totals.

- Phil Tank compared the candidates from both provincial leadership campaigns in their plans for the Meewasin Valley Authority. And the Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation likewise took note of the candidates' education plans across party lines.

- While I haven't focused much on endorsements, the most prominent recent ones include an interesting divide between Wotherspoon's support from familiar Saskatchewan NDP figures including Anne Blakeney and Cam Broten, and Meili's from the broader progressive movement including Thomas Mulcair and Harry Leslie Smith.

- Finally, Ryan Meili has released a membership pitch connecting his farm background to the importance of community support for people:

Leadership 2018 Links

The latest from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign - though it's noteworthy at the outset how little of the activity in the race is taking place in the public eye. (One key exception there is the policy front, where both candidates have been very active - and which I'll address in future posts.)

- I haven't focused much on endorsements so far due to the reality that both Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon figured to have ample support behind them. And I'll note that the start of the campaign has confirmed that expectation - with Meili unveiling endorsements from Cathy Sproule, Sheri Benson and Ron Fisher, and Wotherspoon enjoying the backing of Nicole Rancourt, Warren McCall, Carla Beck, Danielle Chartier, Buckley Belanger, Doyle Vermette and Lorne Scott.

- Chris Vandenbreekel reports on the candidates' time at the Saskatchewan Teachers' Association's member forum. And Alex MacPherson's weekly notebook series has offered a useful roundup of what's been happening in both the NDP and Saskatchewan Party leadership campaigns.

- Finally, Dennis Raphael argues that Meili's focus on a healthy society is reminiscent of Tommy Douglas' vision and leadership.

Leadership 2017: The Ballot

Despite the federal NDP's candidate showcase there hasn't been much change since last week's rankings - and so I won't update those for this week. Rather than ranking the candidates based on their perceived likelihood of winning, I'll instead take the opportunity to offer my own endorsement and ballot ranking, along with some explanation as to how I've made my own choice among four strong candidates. (For further reading, Alice Funke offers a must-read summary as to the array of expectations and responsibilities for the NDP's leader.)

1. Guy Caron

The key for Caron has been to establish that he could demonstrate the capacity to grow in a campaign with relatively limited resources. And in the end, he's done just that - offering strong and popular individual policies within an effective philosophical framework, and managing to win over a far larger number of supporters on sheer personal appeal than I'd have anticipated.

The most important sticking point for me with Caron is then his tendency to put process and jurisdiction ahead of underlying values at times. That's been most obvious in his take on Quebec's Bill 62, where I'll note that he may be best served taking a lesson from Thomas Mulcair's response focusing on fundamental values rather than political calculations. And it's also been notable at other times when he's demurred on ambitious social policy proposals by pointing to jurisdictional questions.

But on the balance, Caron looks to have the best prospect of winning Canadians over to a progressive vision - just as he's won over supporters throughout the leadership campaign.

2. Jagmeet Singh

Singh too has done a highly effective job of situating worthwhile policy proposals within a framework of well-defined values. The primary factor placing him behind Caron is that those values don't overlap with the ones I'd like to see promoted to quite the same extent: on one set of key economic issues in particular, Singh has gone out of his way to express principles which are both contrary to NDP policy, and problematic from the standpoint of winning voters over to a coherent progressive philosophy.

That said, Singh's showcase today suggests that he's both tightening up his economic message, and making strides in tying it to his personal experience. And the areas of concern within the leadership race should be ones where he'll have reason to be on the proper side of any debate across party lines.  

Moreover, Singh has lived up to his own "love and courage" theme with strongly principled stances in other areas where I'd have expected him to play it safer. And that offers me enough comfort on policy to place him second in light of his success in building an organization and appealing to the public.

3. Niki Ashton

Ashton's deeply progressive platform and strategy based on the successful movement-building exemplified by Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders hold a great deal of appeal to me. And today's presentation was likely her strongest in putting those together. But Ashton ranks below the top of my ballot because of some uncertainty about her ability to execute that strategy.

While Corbyn was eventually able to build up his UK Labour party despite a combination of internal grumbling and a dismissive press, he's done so based in large part on the demonstrable strength and breadth of the movement behind him. Corbyn only won the opportunity to face the general electorate by twice winning the support of a strong majority of his party's members - and it's the endurance of his personal support among members that's allowed him to withstand storms both internal and external.

Based on how the media has treated her throughout the leadership campaign, Ashton stands to match Corbyn's status as a lightning rod for press attacks. But she hasn't yet shown much of a movement behind her to answer issues as they've arisen. And so Ashton's most plausible path to victory looks to represent a potentially dangerous outcome for the NDP as a whole: the most difficult road for the party may involve a multi-ballot vote in which Ashton narrowly noses ahead despite modest enthusiasm, then has to face an onslaught of media criticism with relatively little internal support.

4. Charlie Angus

Finally, Angus finishes fourth on my ballot based on a leadership campaign which hasn't lived up to either Angus' potential or his competitors' choices in terms of either policy development or progressive values.

To be sure, Angus has been able to secure the endorsement of plenty of prominent voices who are willing to trust him. But I have to wonder whether the relatively unfocused populism he's relied on during the leadership race will be ameliorated - or produce better results - against the NDP's competition. And if not, then Angus poses the risk of losing ground in terms of both party results and issue advocacy.

Again, that's not to say Angus wouldn't have a strong opportunity to succeed as the NDP's next leader. But it does mean he falls behind his fellow candidates on that score - and thus to the bottom of my ballot.

Leadership 2017 Links

The latest from the federal NDP's leadership campaign as tomorrow's showcases approach - and as members begin to fill out their ballots.

- The Star's editorial board has been meeting with the candidates, resulting in articles about Niki Ashton's determination that the NDP not be outflanked by Liberal rhetoric on the left and Guy Caron's pitch as the candidate who can win in Quebec, as well as Martin Regg Cohn's column arguing that Jagmeet Singh stands above his fellow candidates. Canadaland is interviewing the candidates, beginning with Guy Caron. Andrew Autio reports on Charlie Angus' take on the campaign so far and his position as voting begins. And Joanna Smith discusses Jagmeet Singh's familiarity with racism (and the need to respond with grace and purpose).

- Caron has released his nation-to-nation platform for reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. And the Star's editorial board offers its support for decriminalizing drug possession as mentioned by Singh - though it neglects to note that both Ashton and Caron also expressed interest in the idea.

- Eric Grenier follows up on the significance of the endorsements made so far, while Campbell Clark picks up on Angus' surprising lack of support within the current caucus. Angus did add a potentially significant endorsement from Libby Davies as one of the NDP's most-admired voices from the left.  And Joel-Denis Bellavance reports on Alexandre Boulerice's decision to stay neutral - which is particularly interesting based on the view of one of the NDP's most prominent Quebec MPs that any of the candidates can succeed in his home province.

- Maura Forrest reports on a glitch which saw some members receive more than one ballot.

- Christo Aivalis offers his review of all of the candidates, while Alex Ballingall offers profiles from the Star.

- Finally, Ballingall discusses how the leadership candidates fit into the NDP's overarching goals as a party, while Jeremy Appel offers his take as to the impact of each candidate on the 2019 campaign. And Dennis Gruending highlights how the leadership campaign will affect Canada's broader political scene.

Leadership 2017 Links

The latest from the federal NDP's leadership campaign in advance of tomorrow's final official debate. (Though the Huffington Post is advertising another to come on the 27th.)

- Elizabeth McSheffrey paints Charlie Angus' purpose as being to rebuild public trust in politics as a means of giving a voice to people.

- Jagmeet Singh's response to a heckler ranting about Sharia law with a call for love and courage has received attention on an international scale. And Jeffrey Ansloos views the incident as emblematic of a test for Canada's left in responding to religious diversity.

- Peter Julian's endorsement of Singh offers one more example of a key party figure with strong Quebec ties rejecting any concern about his prospects in the province - though it's particularly worth watching whether any of Julian's own Quebec endorsers follow suit.

- Djaouida Sellah's support for Charlie Angus, Scott Duvall's backing of Guy Caron and Morgane Oger's endorsement of Niki Ashton also provide noteworthy boosts as the campaign reaches the home stretch. (Meanwhile Pat Stogran's endorsement of Angus looks like more of a double-edged sword - Stogran certainly has his followers, but any association between his poorly-thought-out attacks on the NDP and Angus' campaign may raise concerns among the core supporters Angus is relying on.)

- Finally, James Laxer argues that now is the moment for the NDP to reemphasize democratic socialist values.

Leadership 2017 Links

The latest from the federal NDP leadership campaign as the August 17 membership deadline approaches. (And for those wondering, it's possible to both check one's membership status and sign up online.)

- Kyle Duggan reports on a new Mainstreet poll showing Charlie Angus with a substantial lead among identified members - confirming where the candidates appear to rank among existing members, but raising the question of whether new members might change the picture on the first ballot.

- On the endorsement front, Angus' labour endorsements reflect a noteworthy grouping of support. And all of the candidates have announced support among current or former politicians, including Eugene Kostyra and Jennifer Howard for Angus; Raymond Cote, Joe Comartin and Georgina Jolibois for Niki Ashton; Anne Minh Thu Quach, Howard Hampton and Peter Tabuns for Guy Caron; and Brian Masse, Tracey Ramsey and a bevy of Ontario MPPs for Jagmeet Singh.

- Caron has unveiled his climate justice plan, which notably addresses the international implications of climate change both by planning to recognize climate migrants and by proposing a carbon border adjustment tax. 

- Kristy Kirkup reports that Singh won't plan to run in a byelection if he wins the leadership - which some voters may see as a problem, but which strikes me as having at least as much upside as downside given how important engagement outside of Ottawa is to building a leader's reputation and connecting with the public.

- Charlie Smith discusses the strengthening left across Canada, and theorizes that it might allow Ashton to win with a promise to be our equivalent to Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders. And Gerard Di Trolio interviews Ashton about her goals as leader.

- Nora Loreto offers her take on what she hopes to see from the candidates in order to succeed in Quebec.

- Finally, Tom Parkin makes his case to ensure that the disagreements between the candidates stay clean and civil. But I would take issue with where he draws the line - as the debate over how social programs should be structured is surely a legitimate one (particularly on the part of candidates merely defending party policy).

Leadership 2017: The Role of Endorsements

In previous leadership links posts, I've highlighted a few endorsements which have struck me as particularly significant. That said, I haven't tried to compile anything approaching a comprehensive list.

To put the past endorsements in context, I'll take a moment for now to look more broadly at where the endorsement count currently stands - and why there are only a small number of future endorsements which would figure to have much impact on the campaign.

I've previously commented on the role of endorsements, with particular emphasis on the initial threshold for candidate viability. On that front, any notable lack of people willing to publicly declare support for a candidate is surely a red flag for a campaign.

Fortunately, all four remaining candidates have long since passed the point of any concern: all have supporters both among current or recent caucus members, and among key NDP constituencies.

The other primary effect of endorsements is then to serve as a show of momentum during the course of the campaign.

Endorsements in general provide both a positive piece of news for a candidate, and validation for anybody considering supporting the candidate. (Mind you, Peter Julian's withdrawn candidacy offers a stark example of the limitations of endorsements alone.)

Of course, endorsers can do much more to advance a candidate's campaign than just lend their name to a press release. And that's where the depth and quality of support among the declared endorsers may be more important than their quantity.

Meanwhile, an endorsement may also carry disproportionate weight based on the identity of the endorser.

There are a few people whose endorsements (particularly coupled with a strong push to recruit and persuade members) could make a significant difference to any candidate. There's a reason why Charlie Angus went out of his way to treat Ed Broadbent's attendance at an event as a show of support, and other party "saints" (to use the term thrown around by Robin Sears among others) would also have a substantial impact by lending their support to one candidate over the others. And to the extent Julian and any substantial number of his supporters end up agreeing on a potential leader, that could send a strong signal as to the preference of the party's Quebec caucus and activists.

A somewhat larger number of people might be able to move the needle by making an endorsement which is seen as counterintuitive, encouraging members to see a candidate differently by signalling support from unexpected corners. Among the areas to watch on that front might be prominent supporters for Angus from francophone Quebec, or people perceived as party establishment figures getting behind Guy Caron or Niki Ashton.

Missing from that list is any possible support for Jagmeet Singh. And there's a reason for that: as the latest entrant in the race and lone candidate from outside the federal caucus, he's already been the beneficiary of the widest range of endorsements so far, covering substantially all of the bases which could otherwise have been seen as potential weak points.

That means Singh has less to prove than his competitors in terms of winning future endorsements. But it also means the marginal impact of new support is likely to be somewhat reduced. And if the campaign is going to shift from its current alignment, a wave of endorsements in another direction might be important as either a cause or an effect.

#skndpldr - The Endorsement

As I've mentioned before, we can expect the bulk of the votes cast in Saskatchewan's NDP leadership election to be cast before the convention next month - and over the past day, I've seen plenty of comments to the effect that members are receiving their mail-in ballots. So I'll take the opportunity to offer my endorsement - which for this campaign will include a full ranked ballot. (Note that this is entirely separate from my candidate rankings, which again are intended to reflect likelihood of victory rather than my own choice among the candidates.)

Before I get to the endorsement, though, I'll offer a reminder that this campaign offers a remarkably strong set of choices: there's obvious upside to each of the candidates, and none of the candidates has the type of fundamental flaw which would lead me to eliminate him from serious consideration. So a lower ranking shouldn't be taken to suggest that a candidate is anything less than well-suited for the NDP's leadership.

That said, I do think there's some room for differentiation based on a candidate's fit for the leadership responsibilities of managing a party (and eventually a government), and building and giving a voice to a progressive movement within Saskatchewan. So with that in mind, here's how I'll be ranking the candidates.

1. Ryan Meili

At the start of the campaign, I wondered whether Meili would look as strong in comparison to his competitors this time out  as he did in 2009. But if anything, Meili has exceeded my expectations, ranking at or near the top of the field in all the criteria I'd look for in the next Saskatchewan NDP leader.

Since the start of the campaign (and indeed the previous release of his book), Meili has had an edge in presenting the most principled and best-developed vision for Saskatchewan. But he's also taken a back seat to nobody in his ability to defend that vision when challenged. And he's assembled an impressive organization featuring plenty of new members since his earlier campaign - helped by a quiet but engaging personality which may be an ideal antidote to the over-the-top attacks the new leader is bound to face.

2. Erin Weir

The choices become more difficult through the rest of the ballot, as there are obvious trade-offs to be made between the advocacy, personality and strategic functions of a leader. But I'll rank Weir second based on his significant strength in the former area: he rates near the top of the field in both his established commitment to progressive causes, and his ability to defend them publicly.

Meanwhile, Weir's areas for improvement should be relatively easily addressed if he were to become leader. While his leadership campaign has looked a bit more like a one-man band than would be ideal, he'd have an opportunity to grow into the role of managing an organization. And while he may not match the social ease of Meili or Wotherspoon, he's been plenty comfortable applying his sense of humour as a means of engaging audiences throughout the leadership debates.

3. Trent Wotherspoon

Wotherspoon's obvious strength in connecting personally with a wide variety of people remains the strongest element of his candidacy - even if it didn't prove enough to allow him to establish himself as a prohibitive favourite as once seemed to be the plan.

But Wotherspoon has made enough progress on the advocacy front throughout a grueling debate schedule to raise the prospect that he'll be able to connect with Saskatchewan residents through the media as well as in person - and he's taken on some significant policy causes within the leadership campaign. And those pluses  place him ahead of his colleague in the legislature.

4. Cam Broten

Broten's understated but mostly effective campaign has been largely aimed toward avoiding exactly this type of ranking. But from my standpoint, his efforts to be seen as the safe candidate have backfired somewhat.

In a campaign where NDP members have every reason to discuss and set a new course, Broten has instead positioned himself as the standard-bearer for more of the same: policy proposals connected closely to the NDP's most recent policy book, a list of endorsers comparatively light on new faces, and most importantly Broten's inclination to portray other candidates' creative ideas as a negative while equivocating somewhat on policy himself. Those can be seen as strategic moves which are subject to reversal, or they can be taken as defining how Broten's leadership would look - but either way, Broten winds up at the back of the pack for now.

#skndpldr Roundup

One of the more important dates of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign passed yesterday, as the membership deadline will close the list of members eligible to vote for the party's next leader.

We'll find out the official numbers before too long, but for now two of the campaigns have given an indication what we can expect. 2,000 new or renewed memberships were sold through Ryan Meili's campaign according to Aaron Genest (in a post which is well worth a read generally in discussing the background work needed to make a social media campaign effective). And Trent Wotherspoon had already sold "several hundred new memberships" according to Friday's final membership appeal on his campaign's Facebook page.

Barring a surprise either from the remaining candidates or from new members signing up through other means, those numbers figure to include most of the new supporters in the leadership voter pool.

In other news, a few relatively significant late-campaign endorsements were revealed over the past week. Athabasca MLA and deputy leader Buckley Belanger endorsed Wotherspoon, allowing him to claim additional support from a well-respected member of the NDP's current caucus while also boosting his apparent geographic base.

Meanwhile, Broten unveiled two endorsements of particular note. A nod from the United Steelworkers serves as both his first labour endorsement (at least to my recollection) and somewhat of a coup in light of Erin Weir's work for the union. And his endorsement by Anne Blakeney lends some weight to Broten's regular invocations of Allan Blakeney's legacy, while also highlighting his establishment support in Saskatoon.

Of course, it's the members rather than the endorsers who will ultimately vote on the leadership. And  now that one of the great unknowns of the campaign (the composition of the eligible membership) is settled, we can expect to see the campaigns focus entirely on targetting voters as the convention approaches.

#skndpldr Roundup

With the holiday break coming to an end, let's take a quick look at what's new in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign before taking stock as to where the candidates stand.

While the official debates resume this weekend, the most important date to watch for is the January 25 membership deadline. Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon have both put together targeted efforts to recruit new voters through their own campaigns, but eligible voters interested in joining can also do so through the NDP's provincial office.

The break has seen plenty of talk about endorsements - with Jason Hammond and Scott Stelmaschuk both discussing the role they see endorsements playing within the campaign. Beyond my earlier comments, I'll add only that I see less of a distinction than Scott between "name dropping" endorsements and other types: as much as members may respect senior figures within the party, I wouldn't necessarily see the support of a past MLA carrying much more weight than that of any other endorser with a relatively similar inclination and ability to reach out to voters. And the most important effect of public endorsements may be to encourage a wider range of people to actually make the effort.

Meanwhile, Wotherspoon added to his broad base of support by earning some Manitoba cabinet endorsements. And Cam Broten has continued to add past Saskatchewan candidates and cabinet members to his list of endorsers - though it's beginning to look rather striking that his campaign's news has consisted of nothing but endorsements since mid-October.

Finally on the policy side, Ryan Meili unveiled two more platform planks: a housing strategy that includes ending homelessness in Saskatchewan within ten years, and a sexual and reproductive health plan to improve equitable access to reproductive health services.

#skndpldr Roundup

Once again, Saskatchewan's NDP leadership campaign has focused largely on recent debates and other candidate forums (and I'll be discussing those individually as I get a chance to view them). And for those interested in immediate coverage of those, Tracey Mitchell has been offering just that. But here are a few other recent developments which I haven't yet discussed...

- Having already written that few endorsements figure to change the direction of the leadership campaign, I'll note that one recent statement of support at least looks to distinguish the current campaign from 2009: UFCW 1400's endorsement of Ryan Meili offers a level of organized labour support beyond that which Meili won in the previous campaign. And while Trent Wotherspoon still looks to a slight edge in labour support so far, the key takeway looks to be that no one candidate will be able to lay claim to an overwhelming edge in trade union backing (as was the case for Dwain Lingenfelter in 2009).

- Erin Weir wrote to the Southwest Booster to point out how the Sask Party's privatization schemes stand to lose the province millions of dollars every year, while also earning a writeup in the Moose Jaw Times Herald on the need for fiscal plans to accompany social policies. But I do wonder whether Weir is missing a chance to group those issues together under a general campaign theme along the lines of "returns on public resources" (or even the familiar "common wealth" philosophy) - whether the resources in question consist of oil, minerals or Crown investments.

- Finally, after playing a key role in the Saskatchewan Party's grudging choice to reverse course on funding refugee health benefit, Cam Broten is now pushing the Wall government to similarly recognize its underfunding of HIV/AIDS awareness. 

#skndpldr - Endorsement Notes

As I've noted before, I tend to see leadership endorsements as involving diminishing returns: once a candidate has enough support to be seen as a viable contender, additional names on a list of endorsers are unlikely to have any substantial impact unless they play significantly against some widely-known expectation. And since I see all of the candidates as having met that initial threshold, I haven't been tracking endorsements all that closely in the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race.

But while the list of names may not be so important, the content of endorsements may be somewhat more worthy of discussion - particularly to the extent supporters may make points outside a candidate's own message track. So let's take a quick look at examples of each candidate's announced endorsements on that front.

Cam Broten's endorsements include this from Ken Crush, discussing the fact that Broten's interest and involvement in building the NDP's rural presence is far from new:

Cam has been our buddy MLA for the last 5 years and has consistently served our constituency well. He is well respected by the small town media and often sought after by the local papers for his input on various provincial issues. He has also been an influential leader in our party over the last few years chairing and co-chairing many committees, including our party's policy review process where members of our party and the public participated in policy development. Cam is interested in what matters to people. He has a unique ability to listen, understand and act on issues whether they are raised by seniors, students, farmers, immigrants, workers or business people.

While the latter portion of Crush's endorsement could be taken directly from a campaign bio, the first two sentences in particular draw a noteworthy link between Broten's work in Biggar and some of the most important roles of a leader.

In contrast to Broten's focus on the NDP as it stands, Ryan Meili's featured endorsements deal largely with the party as it might be - with U of S professor Alexander Irving's message of support particularly standing out as a strong statement of values which extend beyond party lines and provincial borders:

Ryan is the best chance, here, for us to return to the social democratic vision that the province, country, and world need so badly. There is no doubt that Ryan cares deeply about people, Mother Earth, and society – he has 'walked that walk' as a healer many times. He will work best with social movements not neo-liberal corporations.

Interestingly, Erin Weir's endorsements look to be the ones most patterned on his campaign messages - and indeed his "party activist" list is limited to names alone. But Dick Proctor's offering includes some addition insight into Weir's past experience and effectiveness as a candidate:

Erin and I shared a campaign office in Regina during the 2004 federal election, when he ran in Wascana against Ralph Goodale. Although that was a difficult election for New Democrats in Saskatchewan and Erin was up against the Minister of Finance, he put together an effective team and campaigned energetically. I have seen up close his work ethic and ability to collaborate with others. These qualities would serve him well as the next Saskatchewan NDP leader.

Finally, while a leadership campaign inevitably tests a candidate's presentation as a speaker, Trent Wotherspoon's personal endorsements largely focus on his listening ability - with Marion Hewitt Pollock's comment serving as an example:

When you're speaking, you know Trent is listening.  It doesn't matter how crowded the room, or busy the moment, he is engaging and thoughtful.  He is the kind of community-minded innovator that our province needs. I know Trent is going to include and value all of our voices in his leadership bid and beyond.

Overall, Meili's highlighted endorsements stand out as reflecting more personal statements than those of the other candidates - which allows for the possibility that a wider range of potential voters may find something in his endorsements as a basis for either agreement or disagreement. And it will bear watching whether the other candidates or (particularly) outside parties try to drive wedges between candidates and supporters by focusing on the latter.