By the byelections

I'll check in from my vacation for a couple of quick notes on the federal byelection results. (Though you'll also want to read IP's analysis if you haven't already.)

First, while the NDP's overwhelming byelection victory in Outremont is a huge story in its own right, the vote total involved signals that Mulcair may be able to hold the seat for a long time to come.

Remember that Jean Lapierre won the seat in 2006 with just over 14,000 votes, in a riding where over 40,000 voters went to the polls. Now, Mulcair holds the seat after winning over 11,000 votes with barely half the turnout. And with the NDP's standing obviously improving in Quebec and its voter list presumably far expanded from what it was a year ago, Mulcair should be a safe bet to be able to significantly exceed Lapierre's general election total - along with that of his competitors.

Second, as I'd speculated earlier, the results from the other two ridings may say even more about the Libs' lack of strength in Quebec (and the NDP's relative strength) than the Outremont vote total. While Outremont can be classified as being based on Thomas Mulcair's name rather than relative party strength, the NDP also showed enough party depth to beat out the Libs in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. And even in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, the Libs' star candidate - apparently backed by a number of dissident former Cons - wasn't able to break into double figures.

Now, as IP notes, the story here is at least as much about the strength of the parties which broke through rather than the weakness of the parties in free-fall. And while that's unfortunate in the case of the Cons' rise in Bloc territory, the NDP's successful Outremont push - and ability to push past the Libs in another riding which was a Bloc/Lib battle as recently as 2004 - offers a strong signal that the NDP is on the rise as a long-term choice for progressive Quebec voters.

Free-fall

Chantal Hebert writes about the September 17 Quebec by-elections. And while I'm not sure what's behind some of the conclusions, it looks like the Libs may be in even bigger trouble in Quebec than most pundits would have thought:

Nine months into Stéphane Dion's leadership, the number of safe Liberal seats in Quebec is continuing to shrink.

With a set of by-elections only two weeks away, the Liberals are in a battle for third place with the NDP in two of the three ridings at play while they are fighting for their lives in a Montreal seat that they have held for most of the past century...

Outside Montreal, the low Liberal numbers have even become a concern for the sovereignist Bloc Québécois, whose strategists worry about a pooling of federalist votes behind the Conservative contenders.

Those fears are not totally exaggerated. In Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Liberal candidate Louise Boulanger spent last week scrambling to explain why she had become a paid-up member of the Conservative party on the occasion of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's visit to the riding in June.

So far, the battles for Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot are strictly two-way races between the incumbent Bloc and the Conservatives.

Now, I've noted before that the lower-party races in both Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean figured to be important ones for the longer term. But I'd expected the Libs to regain at least some of the support they lost in the Martin/Chretien feud to push their way into a fight for second with the Cons, rather than declining even further from single-digit results in 2006.

After all, the Libs were the strong second choice in both ridings as recently as 2004 - meaning that they should have a far larger pool of past support to draw from than the NDP. And in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean in particular, the Libs seemed to have a strong opportunity to capitalize on some serious discontent among previous Con supporters.

Instead, Hebert's column suggests that Boulanger, the Libs' star candidate of the two ridings, has somehow managed to turn a seeming strength (the transfer of herself and other former Con supporters to the Libs) into a weakness. And the Libs as a whole apparently haven't manage to muster anywhere near the organization to position themselves as a primary opponent to the Bloc.

Now, it may be that the Libs are simply focusing their resources on Outremont in order to try to fend off the NDP's challenge there. But the loss of Outremont would be far easier to spin as a single-riding/star candidate aberration if the Libs could show some broader-based party strength through gains in the current Bloc/Con battlegrounds.

Instead, it looks like the Libs may be headed for a worst-case scenario of both losing Outremont and continuing to bleed support - perhaps even falling behind the NDP - in the other two ridings up for grabs. And if that happens, then it wouldn't be surprising to see the Libs continue their decline in the next general election and beyond.

Listed

As noted by David Akin, Elections Canada has released the official list of candidates for the September 17 Quebec by-elections. And a few points seem worthy of mention.

First off, the Outremont race (which was already the most crowded in Quebec in 2006) is only getting more so. The by-election will feature five independent candidates - one more than in the last general election - to go with the seven party candidates in the race.

Next up, it's fairly clear which smaller parties are looking to make their mark in by-elections. The neo-Rhinos have pushed their way into the race ahead of the Rhinos proper, running candidates in both Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. (I knew something seemed a bit presumptuous about the Canada Votes 2008 results...) Likewise, the Canadian Action Party will also run in Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. Meanwhile, none of the other small parties is taking a run at any of the seats.

Finally, in contrast to the influx of independents in Outremont, the Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean race will lack any independent candidates...which is significant since the former Con candidate, Ghislain Lavoie, had been reported to be considering an indy bid depending on the timing of the by-election. While Lavoie is sitting this race out, though, he may well have enough influence to tip the balance between the Cons and the Libs - and it'll be interesting to see if he takes any sides before the vote.

Same old story: Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean edition

La Presse reports on the past party loyalties of the Libs and Cons in the Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean by-election. And if we needed another indication of how interchangeable the parties can be, it appears that the star candidates from both parties have switched their affiliation from one to the other within the last two years:

L'élection partielle du 17 septembre dans la circonscription de Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean donne lieu à d'étranges rebondissements. Depuis le 24 juin, Louise Boulanger, candidate du Parti libéral dans ce bastion souverainiste, est en effet membre en règle du Parti... conservateur.

Selon ce qu'a appris La Presse hier, Mme Boulanger, femme d'affaires de Saint-Félicien, a acheté sa carte de membre le jour même où le premier ministre Stephen Harper est venu fêter la Saint-Jean à Roberval en compagnie de son candidat Denis Lebel...

Mme Boulanger a aussi affirmé que M. Lebel, son adversaire conservateur, est membre du Parti libéral. «Il a sa carte de membre du Parti libéral et je peux vous le prouver», a-t-elle dit. Mais chez les conservateurs, on a indiqué hier que M. Lebel n'a jamais renouvelé sa carte de membre, échue depuis 2005.

The article goes off on a couple of other interesting tangents, including an attempt by Boulanger to minimize her Con involvement, as well as an inexplicably anonymous statement of Con spin which blissfully ignores the Con-to-Lib conversions of both Boulanger and Bernard Potvin (who apparently wanted to challenge for the Con nomination until Lebel's candidacy was announced). But while the Libs fight a losing battle arguing about timing and reasons and the Cons try to spin the game of musical supporters as proof of their own momentum, the more important lesson lies elsewhere.

Namely, there's little enough principled distinction between the two parties that high-profile backers see no problem in jumping back and forth without an apparent second thought. And when the actions of the parties' own supporters show so little difference between the two, there's all the more reason to doubt that voting for one will do anything to avoid the problems with the other.

On progressive choices

It's good to see some additional commentary on one of the less-noticed Quebec by-elections (that in Roberval-Lac St. Jean). But I have to question two conclusions seemingly reached by Uncorrected Proofs: that there's a significant threat that the Cons will unseat the Bloc in the by-election, and that a vote for one of the federalist opposition parties won't have a substantial impact.

On the question of which party holds the advantage going into the by-election, it's indeed true that the Conscame surprisingly close to taking the seat in 2006, and have a significantly higher-profile candidate for the by-election. But it's worth remembering that they may have alienated a substantial part of their existing base to do so - with the candidate who managed to pull them within 8% of the Bloc talking about an independent run, and a substantial chunk of the Cons' riding association switching its allegiance to the Libs.

With the only party within striking distance of the Bloc facing an uphill battle just to make up for lost support, the Bloc figures to be fairly safe in retaining the seat...particularly if they do indeed place their by-election focus on retaining their current seats rather than challenging Outremont.

While the party on top thus doesn't figure to change, though, there's plenty of room for movement in the relative strength of the challenging parties. And there's far more room for the parties to gain or lose ground than it would seem based on the 2006 results.

In fact, in 2004 it was the Libs who came in second, with more than double the Cons' vote total. Based on their having nominated a relatively high-profile candidate (in addition to apparently winning over at least some disgruntled Cons), it's fairly clear that they're looking to take back that mantle - and have at least some reasonable chance of succeeding.

Moreover, Roberval-Lac St. Jean isn't entirely barren territory for either the NDP or the Greens, even if it's hardly a strong pickup opportunity at this point.

In the NDP's case, its 2006 vote total of 2,151 was the Dippers' second-best ever in the riding (behind only 1988). Particularly based on the party's obvious focus in Outremont, it's probably unrealistic to expect the NDP to boost its share of the Roberval-Lac St. Jean vote much in the upcoming by-election. But with the NDP well-positioned among current Bloc voters, it could plausibly challenge for the seat an election cycle or two down the road if the Bloc does crumble - as long as it doesn't fall too far behind the Libs and Cons now.

Meanwhile, the Greens put up a respectable showing with 1,689 votes in 2006 - placing them within 3 percentage points of third place. And while the Greens too will face challenges in gaining any ground, they'd surely very much like to beat out one or more of the NDP and Libs for the first time in Quebec.

In sum, while the Bloc seems fairly likely to hold onto the seat, Roberval-Lac St. Jean offers another important opportunity for the federal parties to jockey for position now and lay the groundwork for future gains. And any progressive voter concerned about which party will have a leg up in the long run should be sure to vote for his or her preferred party now - lest it lose ground that can't be made up later.

Top to bottom

Just so we're clear that the Libs aren't alone in making their own life more difficult through a top-down approach to politics, CfSR has a great find on the Cons' attempt to impose a star candidate and Harper-friendly riding association in the Quebec riding of Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean.

As the Cons' reward for taking control of the riding out of the hands of the existing supporters, previous members of the riding association are now flirting with the Libs, while the Cons' candidate from the last two elections (who ran a close second at 37% of the vote in 2006) is looking to make a run as an independent. Which figures to split the Cons' previous support three ways - and it's far from clear where they can make up any losses.

The riding seemed to be one of the Cons' better Quebec pickup opportunities otherwise. But the extra ground they'll have to make up just to get back to their 2006 level of support could give the Bloc the break it needs to hold on - and offer yet another example of the dangers of assuming that leader knows best.