Free-fall

Chantal Hebert writes about the September 17 Quebec by-elections. And while I'm not sure what's behind some of the conclusions, it looks like the Libs may be in even bigger trouble in Quebec than most pundits would have thought:

Nine months into Stéphane Dion's leadership, the number of safe Liberal seats in Quebec is continuing to shrink.

With a set of by-elections only two weeks away, the Liberals are in a battle for third place with the NDP in two of the three ridings at play while they are fighting for their lives in a Montreal seat that they have held for most of the past century...

Outside Montreal, the low Liberal numbers have even become a concern for the sovereignist Bloc Québécois, whose strategists worry about a pooling of federalist votes behind the Conservative contenders.

Those fears are not totally exaggerated. In Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Liberal candidate Louise Boulanger spent last week scrambling to explain why she had become a paid-up member of the Conservative party on the occasion of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's visit to the riding in June.

So far, the battles for Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot are strictly two-way races between the incumbent Bloc and the Conservatives.

Now, I've noted before that the lower-party races in both Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean figured to be important ones for the longer term. But I'd expected the Libs to regain at least some of the support they lost in the Martin/Chretien feud to push their way into a fight for second with the Cons, rather than declining even further from single-digit results in 2006.

After all, the Libs were the strong second choice in both ridings as recently as 2004 - meaning that they should have a far larger pool of past support to draw from than the NDP. And in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean in particular, the Libs seemed to have a strong opportunity to capitalize on some serious discontent among previous Con supporters.

Instead, Hebert's column suggests that Boulanger, the Libs' star candidate of the two ridings, has somehow managed to turn a seeming strength (the transfer of herself and other former Con supporters to the Libs) into a weakness. And the Libs as a whole apparently haven't manage to muster anywhere near the organization to position themselves as a primary opponent to the Bloc.

Now, it may be that the Libs are simply focusing their resources on Outremont in order to try to fend off the NDP's challenge there. But the loss of Outremont would be far easier to spin as a single-riding/star candidate aberration if the Libs could show some broader-based party strength through gains in the current Bloc/Con battlegrounds.

Instead, it looks like the Libs may be headed for a worst-case scenario of both losing Outremont and continuing to bleed support - perhaps even falling behind the NDP - in the other two ridings up for grabs. And if that happens, then it wouldn't be surprising to see the Libs continue their decline in the next general election and beyond.

Listed

As noted by David Akin, Elections Canada has released the official list of candidates for the September 17 Quebec by-elections. And a few points seem worthy of mention.

First off, the Outremont race (which was already the most crowded in Quebec in 2006) is only getting more so. The by-election will feature five independent candidates - one more than in the last general election - to go with the seven party candidates in the race.

Next up, it's fairly clear which smaller parties are looking to make their mark in by-elections. The neo-Rhinos have pushed their way into the race ahead of the Rhinos proper, running candidates in both Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. (I knew something seemed a bit presumptuous about the Canada Votes 2008 results...) Likewise, the Canadian Action Party will also run in Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. Meanwhile, none of the other small parties is taking a run at any of the seats.

Finally, in contrast to the influx of independents in Outremont, the Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean race will lack any independent candidates...which is significant since the former Con candidate, Ghislain Lavoie, had been reported to be considering an indy bid depending on the timing of the by-election. While Lavoie is sitting this race out, though, he may well have enough influence to tip the balance between the Cons and the Libs - and it'll be interesting to see if he takes any sides before the vote.

The other battle

Most of the talk about Quebec' impending by-elections has focused on Outremont based on how competitive the riding looks to be. But with Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot also going to the polls, there's another opportunity for each party to try to show that it's improved its standing since the 2006 general election. So let's take a look at where the parties now stand, and what they may hope to accomplish.

In 2006, the Bloc's Yvan Loubier won the riding with 56.02% of the vote, with the Cons' Huguette Guilhaumon ranking second at 24.8%. Stephane Deschenes of the Libs came in third at 9.83% of the vote, followed by the NDP's Joelle Chevrier at 5.48% and the Greens' Jacques Tetrault at 3.87%.

The riding doesn't seem to have been a target of much investment from any of the parties: the Bloc spent roughly $41,000 defending it, and the only other expenditures reported so far were those of the Libs who spent less than $15,000.

From the above, it's easy to see why nobody seems to expect the riding to change hands. Not only did the Bloc win it handily last time with a candidate whose personal appeal wasn't enough to win him a provincial seat, but they also left plenty of room for added spending if they need to invest more to hold the seat. But that doesn't mean the other parties don't all have some potential to make a statement in either direction depending on the byelection results.

As focused as the Cons are on short-term political calculations, they surely have to have at least some interest in improving their long-term chances as well...which could be boosted immensely if they can get within striking distance of the Bloc in seats like this one.

In contrast, the Libs will surely be looking to reclaim their mantle as the main alternative to the Bloc. And since the Libs managed to double the Cons' vote total in 2004 (with the vote percentages roughly flipping in 2006), it's far from impossible that the Libs could push their way back into second place.

Yet they can hardly be sure of holding their ground either. The NDP in turn would surely see an opportunity to make up the few points now separating it from the Libs, and perhaps eat into the Bloc's left-wing support to position itself as a longer-term option in the riding.

And finally, the Greens could see a chance to capitalize on the attention paid to other ridings by seeing if a concerted push can get them past any of the other federalist parties.

What'll be most interesting to see is how the parties choose to allocate their resources - and whether it leads to unexpected results in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot. Might the Bloc pay so much attention to defending Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean as to put its lead in jeopardy, or at least let another party within striking distance? Will the Cons hold their vote, or the 2006 result this an example of some of the Libs' election machine having put its weight behind Harper solely out of spite against PMPM? And if the Libs and/or NDP put their focus almost entirely on Outremont, do the Greens have a realistic chance of passing one or the other in Quebec for the first time?

Based on the lack of attention paid to Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot so far, I don't expect these stories to be the subject of much media attention. But they may certainly lead to at least some party bragging rights. And even if none of the parties puts its full effort into Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot based on the outcome seeming to be preordained, that may in turn only make the riding a key barometer of the parties' baseline support in Quebec.

Answering the call

I'm not sure if I'm the only one who half expected the Cons to defy their own leaks and set the latest date possible for the impending Outremont by-election in order to delay another shellacking in the riding, particularly based on Deceivin' Stephen's procrastination in actually calling the by-election.

But now that the date for Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot is set for September 17, it won't be long before we find out whether the Cons have managed to use their stay in power to improve their standing in Quebec. And from this angle, it doesn't seem likely that Harper will enjoy the answer.