On progressive choices

It's good to see some additional commentary on one of the less-noticed Quebec by-elections (that in Roberval-Lac St. Jean). But I have to question two conclusions seemingly reached by Uncorrected Proofs: that there's a significant threat that the Cons will unseat the Bloc in the by-election, and that a vote for one of the federalist opposition parties won't have a substantial impact.

On the question of which party holds the advantage going into the by-election, it's indeed true that the Conscame surprisingly close to taking the seat in 2006, and have a significantly higher-profile candidate for the by-election. But it's worth remembering that they may have alienated a substantial part of their existing base to do so - with the candidate who managed to pull them within 8% of the Bloc talking about an independent run, and a substantial chunk of the Cons' riding association switching its allegiance to the Libs.

With the only party within striking distance of the Bloc facing an uphill battle just to make up for lost support, the Bloc figures to be fairly safe in retaining the seat...particularly if they do indeed place their by-election focus on retaining their current seats rather than challenging Outremont.

While the party on top thus doesn't figure to change, though, there's plenty of room for movement in the relative strength of the challenging parties. And there's far more room for the parties to gain or lose ground than it would seem based on the 2006 results.

In fact, in 2004 it was the Libs who came in second, with more than double the Cons' vote total. Based on their having nominated a relatively high-profile candidate (in addition to apparently winning over at least some disgruntled Cons), it's fairly clear that they're looking to take back that mantle - and have at least some reasonable chance of succeeding.

Moreover, Roberval-Lac St. Jean isn't entirely barren territory for either the NDP or the Greens, even if it's hardly a strong pickup opportunity at this point.

In the NDP's case, its 2006 vote total of 2,151 was the Dippers' second-best ever in the riding (behind only 1988). Particularly based on the party's obvious focus in Outremont, it's probably unrealistic to expect the NDP to boost its share of the Roberval-Lac St. Jean vote much in the upcoming by-election. But with the NDP well-positioned among current Bloc voters, it could plausibly challenge for the seat an election cycle or two down the road if the Bloc does crumble - as long as it doesn't fall too far behind the Libs and Cons now.

Meanwhile, the Greens put up a respectable showing with 1,689 votes in 2006 - placing them within 3 percentage points of third place. And while the Greens too will face challenges in gaining any ground, they'd surely very much like to beat out one or more of the NDP and Libs for the first time in Quebec.

In sum, while the Bloc seems fairly likely to hold onto the seat, Roberval-Lac St. Jean offers another important opportunity for the federal parties to jockey for position now and lay the groundwork for future gains. And any progressive voter concerned about which party will have a leg up in the long run should be sure to vote for his or her preferred party now - lest it lose ground that can't be made up later.