So close and yet so far

For NDP supporters in Saskatchewan, last night's results were particularly painful as the party was once again shut out in its birthplace. But let's note exactly how that shutout happened.

By all accounts, the NDP had three main target ridings in the province: Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River.

And in all three, the NDP posted a higher vote count than ever before, topping both its previous bests and the Cons' winning vote totals from 2008. (Indeed, the NDP's totals in Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar would have beaten all comers in every election since the current ridings were drawn in 1996.)

What's more, the NDP's share of the vote increased from 25.5% to 32.3% province-wide and pulled to within striking distance in several new potential target ridings - even as the province's premier spent substantial political capital to echo the Cons' spin at two key points in the campaign.

So the issue for the NDP looks to have been based largely on the continued decline of the Libs which has eliminated sometimes-favourable vote splits, along with some failure to anticipate increased turnout generally - not any problem in identifying and pulling a significant amount of new support.

Of course, a different set of riding boundaries in 2015 will reset plenty of the electoral math. But for now, the NDP's Saskatchewan campaigns should be proud to have brought out as much new support as they did - and should be thinking about how to turn that into some long-awaited seats four years from now.

Saskatchewan NDP Convention 2010 - Day 1 Wrapup

One of most interesting developments at this year's convention is the inclusion of an "internet cafe" encouraging conventiongoers to keep in touch with the party on Facebook and Twitter. Expect some updates through that tomorrow - but for tonight, I'll stick to a brief end-of-day wrapup.

The main provincial activity for the afternoon consisted of the resolution panels. I attended the panel on agriculture, the environment and the economy, which roared through 28 resolutions despite some lively debates on both resolution wording and the underlying policies. As expected, most of the resolutions passed with at most minor amendments - but of particular note, two parallel resolutions from the Swift Current riding to phase out coal and uranium mining (EN13 and EN14 for those following along) were tabled rather than being approved for discussion in the plenary session.

That was followed by two federal policy panels: one on First Nations issues featuring Jean Crowder and Lawrence Joseph, and one on rural issues with presentations from Nathan Cullen, Ian McCreary and Nettie Wiebe. The speech of the afternoon was undoubtedly Joseph's, as the NDP's newly-nominated candidate for Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River mixed wit with a strong message on the need to recognize and understand First Nations rights and interests. Joseph's message in turn meshed nicely with Jack Layton's subsequent speech, which included a focus on the NDP's efforts to build links with First Nations across the country (and the star candidates who are emerging as a result).

The day will wrap up with a Pub Night (which I'll be headed to shortly), with tomorrow's events including several provincial policy panels, the leader's address, a caucus bear pit and the first plenary session. So stay tuned, as there's plenty yet to come.

On resolutions

With a New Year set to dawn in the wake of the latest Con abuse of power, now would be a good time both to get some donations in to your friendly neighbourhood opposition party before the end of 2009, and to resolve to make sure the Cons' competitors are well-equipped in 2010 and beyond. So here are a few donation links to keep in mind.

- The Cons know well that prorogation will both make opposition research more difficult since Parliament's accountability mechanisms are shut down, and give the government an easier time controlling the public message. A one-time or monthly donation to the NDP can help balance out the Cons' use of public resources for their own purposes. (I'll suggest a one-time donation of $63 - making for a dollar each day the Cons have locked the NDP out of Parliament.)

- Equally importantly, NDP riding associations need funding in order to keep pace with the Cons in the next election campaign (whenever that happens). In order to help elect Saskatchewan NDP MPs in Parliament to replace Cons as soon as possible, a donation to Nettie Wiebe in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar or Noah Evanchuk in Palliser can help to flip a seat that's well within reach. Or if you'd like to help build the NDP's longer-term efforts in other Saskatchewan seats where it already holds a solid second place, you can donate to John Parry in Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Denise Kouri in Saskatoon-Humboldt, Valerie Mushinski in Prince Albert, and/or Darien Moore in Blackstrap.

Nettie returns

After posting about possible Regina nominations this morning, I'd planned to deal with the situation in Saskatoon over the next few days. And the latest set of nomination notes from the Pundits' Guide include one excellent piece of news for the NDP on that front, as Nettie Wiebe is planning to take another shot at Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar:

A reader writes to say that three-time NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe is set to give it one more try in the forthcoming election. The former president of the National Farmers' Union had increased her vote share from 26% to 44% between 2004 and 2008, and came within just 262 votes (the 12th closest race of the last election) of winning the seat...

On validation

With the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race nearing its conclusion - and with at least three of the camps making regular media appearances as a result - I've fallen out of the habit of trying to document every endorsement or policy announcement. But it's worth noting one fairly striking pattern that's emerged in the policy releases from the respective camps.

For both Dwain Lingenfelter and Yens Pedersen, policy announcements have consisted entirely of a statement of the candidate's position. Lingenfelter has released more detailed written policy statements which sometimes feature examples from abroad or Saskatchewan's history (along with liberal doses of criticism of the Wall government), while Pedersen has mostly worked through news conferences where he's looked to inject a soundbite or two into the public consciousness on his preferred issues. But neither has given any indication of third-party endorsements for their plans.

Meanwhile, as I've noted before, Deb Higgins' policies tend to be ones which find outside validation either in their current use elsewhere, or in previous reports within the Saskatchewan NDP such as Warren McCall's on post-secondary education and Peter Prebble's on the environment.

In contrast, Ryan Meili's last few announcements have included an added feature. Rather than merely announcing his SaskPharm idea on its own, Meili's press release also featured direct endorsements of the policy itself from two Saskatchewan professors, including former Deputy Minister to the Premier and Executive Director of the Romanow Commission Dr. Greg Marchildon. Likewise, the launch of his rural and agricultural policy featured Nettie Wiebe endorsing not only Meili personally, but his plan as well. (And even his news release on the use of social networking - though not related to a specific policy - was paired with a statement from an Alberta political scientist praising Meili's strategy.)

Based on that trend, Meili's campaign seems to have taken a subtle but important step past any of his competitors. And notwithstanding Meili's talk about evidence-based policy, it's not one that I would necessarily have seen coming from a candidate whose first, second and third priority throughout the campaign has simply been to get his name known.

But apparently Meili has found time to work some successful outside policy consultation into his agenda. Which means that while all of the candidates have put forward a set of ideas and argued in favour of them throughout the campaign, Meili looks to be the only one actively consulting outside experts about his policies - and is apparently receiving a positive response in the process. And that in turn both signals his commitment to seeing the policies through to implementation, and gives him a potential head start in actually doing so.

Nettie results

One more interesting note from tonight's Saskatchewan NDP leadership debate: while it hasn't yet shown up in the media, another major endorsement looks to have fallen into place with Nettie Wiebe offering her support to Ryan Meili. Which looks to be a particularly interesting development for two reasons.

First, with Lorne Calvert figuring to stay neutral and Chris Axworthy long gone from the party, Wiebe is the top finisher in the 2001 leadership race who figures to endorse anybody in this year's contest. And to the extent her base is still in place (which seems entirely likely considering her involvement in federal politics in recent years), it would seem to have the potential to radically reshape the first ballot results if Wiebe's supporters follow her endorsement.

Second, from an outside perspective Wiebe seemed like the most likely prominent figure to send an endorsement Yens Pedersen's way due to their common involvement in the National Farmers Union. (Indeed, the Google tells me there's at least one endorsement from Pedersen's site for the 2007 election which was based on NFU involvement - though sadly the Wayback Machine hasn't preserved the name of the speaker.) Which means that in addition to offering another boost to Meili's momentum, Wiebe's endorsement may effectively close the door on Pedersen's likelihood of building a similar trend.

On sore losers

Others have pointed out Rahim Jaffer's refusal to accept defeat in Edmonton-Strathcona. But it's worth noting that he's not the only Con trying to kick and scream his way out of unfavourable election results, as the Cons' Manitoba president is trying to attack Jim Maloway's 1,700-vote victory in Elmwood-Transcona with a laundry list of complaints which wouldn't have any realistic chance of affecting a substantial number of votes.

From that starting point, I'll be curious to see how many more challenges emerge - and particularly how many of those originate with the party which would seem to have the least reason to want to undermine the election results.

While one would think a remotely competent government would have more important matters to deal with, I wouldn't be surprised if there are indeed more attacks on the election to come. After all, the Elmwood-Transcona challenge in particular seems to be aimed at developing a Republican-style culture of belief that the Cons are entitled to whatever seats they target, such that any loss makes for irrefutable proof of somebody else's wrongdoing. Which would in turn provide the Cons with both an excuse to clamp down even more on access to the polls to try to lower opposition turnout, and a way to motivate their base by claiming to have lost unfairly.

And if the cost is to undermine not only the perception of fairness in Canada's elections, but also the reality of it as Elections Canada is drawn into more and more political attacks - well, the Cons have shown over the past couple of years just how much concern they have for that.

In contrast, for those looking for an example of how to accept defeat graciously, here's Nettie Wiebe's reaction to her painfully close loss in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar:

"I'm afraid I won't have the great privilege of representing this great constituency in Ottawa," said Wiebe, who also ran a tight race in the 2006 election, but came up short to Conservative Carol Skelton.

"We ran a proud and vigorous campaign (but) it looks like it was not quite enough."

While NDP supporters nibbled on fingernails and cheered at every incoming poll that gave Wiebe the edge, the candidate herself said she calmly watched the numbers come across the television screen.

"I am a deeply committed democrat and on election day I give that decision over to the people," Wiebe said. "That doesn't mean I think it's the right result."