So close and yet so far

For NDP supporters in Saskatchewan, last night's results were particularly painful as the party was once again shut out in its birthplace. But let's note exactly how that shutout happened.

By all accounts, the NDP had three main target ridings in the province: Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River.

And in all three, the NDP posted a higher vote count than ever before, topping both its previous bests and the Cons' winning vote totals from 2008. (Indeed, the NDP's totals in Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar would have beaten all comers in every election since the current ridings were drawn in 1996.)

What's more, the NDP's share of the vote increased from 25.5% to 32.3% province-wide and pulled to within striking distance in several new potential target ridings - even as the province's premier spent substantial political capital to echo the Cons' spin at two key points in the campaign.

So the issue for the NDP looks to have been based largely on the continued decline of the Libs which has eliminated sometimes-favourable vote splits, along with some failure to anticipate increased turnout generally - not any problem in identifying and pulling a significant amount of new support.

Of course, a different set of riding boundaries in 2015 will reset plenty of the electoral math. But for now, the NDP's Saskatchewan campaigns should be proud to have brought out as much new support as they did - and should be thinking about how to turn that into some long-awaited seats four years from now.

Nettie returns

After posting about possible Regina nominations this morning, I'd planned to deal with the situation in Saskatoon over the next few days. And the latest set of nomination notes from the Pundits' Guide include one excellent piece of news for the NDP on that front, as Nettie Wiebe is planning to take another shot at Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar:

A reader writes to say that three-time NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe is set to give it one more try in the forthcoming election. The former president of the National Farmers' Union had increased her vote share from 26% to 44% between 2004 and 2008, and came within just 262 votes (the 12th closest race of the last election) of winning the seat...