On deep benches

Since I posted last week about Noah Evanchuk's intention to seek the NDP nomination for Palliser, there's been a flurry of discussion about impending nomination possibilities. So let's take a closer look at what we might see in Regina's other ridings.

To start with, it's worth noting that at least two of the three other local ridings have strong 2008 candidates who (to my knowledge at least) haven't ruled out running again. In Regina Qu'Appelle, Janice Bernier held onto the 32% share of the vote won by former MP Lorne Nystrom in the previous two elections, and won nothing but accolades as a committed and adept campaigner. And in my home riding of Wascana, Stephen Moore likewise earned nothing but praise personally in holding the NDP's share of the vote at 15% despite a fevered battle between the Libs and Cons over Ralph Goodale's riding.

I'll assume for the moment that Fred Kress won't take another shot at Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre after stepping in at the last minute for Moe Kovatch in 2008. But even there, his success in similarly holding the NDP's share of the vote - despite his starting late, and facing a Liberal star candidate who crashed and burned - should make him a strong possibility if he does want to run again.

From that starting point, the question is how much turnover there might be before the next set of nominations. And more than a few people are tossing out suggestions.

Yens Pedersen in Regina Qu'Appelle? Doubtful, as everything I've heard suggests that he'll stick to the provincial scene, and I'd expect him to want to run in either a riding with a strong prospect of success or one where coming up short won't be seen as a mark against him. (In that respect, in an ideal scenario where the NDP made the federal scene its sole priority, it might be interesting if Pedersen were to say "yes" to Wascana: would a high-profile three-way race finally push Goodale to his tipping point, or even open the door for him to be beaten without going voluntarily?)

"Meili folks" in Regina Qu'Appelle and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre? While I don't see Buckdog's post as actually making this suggestion, it could reenergize the party's Regina base in a hurry. That said, though, I wonder whether the Meili movement might be best focused on a couple of adjacent ridings rather than spreading itself into most or all of the ridings - allowing for the Meili supporters to put in a concentrated effort in the west or south of Regina, while freeing up the NDP's existing support base to work the other two ridings.

Putting all of the above together, the ideal scenario based on the names and ideas now in play might be something along the lines of Evanchuk in Palliser, another Meili stalwart in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, and Bernier and Moore each taking a second shot at their respective ridings. But there's every possibility that other top candidates might surface from among Dwain Lingenfelter's personal connections, or be brought in thanks to the federal party's increased organizing efforts.

The question then would be how to fit that kind of talent into an already-strong slate. Which, needless to say, is not a bad problem for the NDP to face going into the next federal campaign - and hopefully it's one that will only get more complicated next time out thanks to the addition of incumbencies to the mix.

(Edit: fixed wording.)