So close and yet so far

For NDP supporters in Saskatchewan, last night's results were particularly painful as the party was once again shut out in its birthplace. But let's note exactly how that shutout happened.

By all accounts, the NDP had three main target ridings in the province: Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River.

And in all three, the NDP posted a higher vote count than ever before, topping both its previous bests and the Cons' winning vote totals from 2008. (Indeed, the NDP's totals in Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar would have beaten all comers in every election since the current ridings were drawn in 1996.)

What's more, the NDP's share of the vote increased from 25.5% to 32.3% province-wide and pulled to within striking distance in several new potential target ridings - even as the province's premier spent substantial political capital to echo the Cons' spin at two key points in the campaign.

So the issue for the NDP looks to have been based largely on the continued decline of the Libs which has eliminated sometimes-favourable vote splits, along with some failure to anticipate increased turnout generally - not any problem in identifying and pulling a significant amount of new support.

Of course, a different set of riding boundaries in 2015 will reset plenty of the electoral math. But for now, the NDP's Saskatchewan campaigns should be proud to have brought out as much new support as they did - and should be thinking about how to turn that into some long-awaited seats four years from now.

Tuesday Afternoon Links

Content goes here.

- Yes, the top story in EKOS' polling update is that the NDP's vote has stabilized in a solid second place nationally. But while not much has changed from the weekend's results, let's note that there is one interesting difference: the NDP managed to pick up even more ground in possible second-choice support, giving it a stunning 54.4% of voters rating the party as their first or second choice.

And based on the campaign so far, there's little reason to think that at least a few more of those potential supporters won't turn into actual ones by election day. (Needless to say, this includes the brouhaha over potentially revisiting Canada's constitution at some point in the future - which was apparently never seen as a big enough deal to interfere with Stephen Harper's path to power.)

- Meanwhile, Bruce Anderson explains why the NDP may have managed to catch its opponents by surprise:

(I)n my view a lot of people who aren't normally consumed with politics are looking at the NDP with fresh eyes, as it occupies centre stage in the last days of this election campaign. What do they perceive?

First, a leader with a passionate, friendly, easy manner. A guy who knows his way around a Tim Hortons and looks like he would draw a crowd to his table over a double-double.

They’d hear him say politics has too much mud-slinging and not enough progress on things that count for average folks. They’d listen to him go on about wanting to work with other people and parties, about hiring more doctors and nurses, “rewarding job creators,” “strengthening your pension” and “making your life a little more affordable.” The language is not that of class warfare, and the goals don’t sound weirdly utopian. These voters might compare Mr. Layton’s pitch with the urgings of Stephen Harper to avoid a coalition, to cut taxes, to strengthen law and order. Or the entreaties of Michael Ignatieff to rise up in defense of our democracy. The NDP themes might well compare favourably, as far as themes go.

- The Star rightly notes that a non-vote effectively serves as a vote for both the status quo and vote suppression, both of which play entirely into the Cons' hands:

This time, too, apathy is likely to amount to a vote by default for the Conservatives. That’s because large numbers of disengaged and alienated voters lean to Jack Layton’s New Democrats or to the Liberals. Those who opt not to vote risk becoming enablers of the Conservative victory that Harper claims is in the bag.

After five years of hyperpartisan, divisive minority government, the last thing Canadians need is to end up with a Tory majority by default because people couldn’t be bothered to turn out. As Harper himself observed on the weekend, “voters are never supposed to give absolute trust to anybody.”
...
The Conservatives don’t deserve to coast home again on a wave of voter apathy. Canadians should rouse themselves on Monday to cast judgment on Harper’s governance since 2006, and on the opposition parties’ competing visions. The country’s future is worth that much.

- But fortunately, there's little reason to think the Cons will get what they're after. And in the latest sign of desperation, Saskatchewan's Cons have followed up on their vacant house strategy with a short-lived attempt to use Saskatchewan's legislative buildings as a billboard.

Tuesday Morning Links

This and that for your Tuesday reading.

- While there's plenty of reason for optimism that the NDP can win enough seats to make change for the better, there should never be any illusion that politics as usual will go down without a fight. Today's sad examples: Dr. Dawg slams the Libs for outing star NDP candidate Francoise Boivin (in a move which will hopefully produce enough backlash to put Boivin over the top), while Rick points out that Bob Rae is once again serving as the Libs' designated spoiler in ridings where they'd apparently prefer to see Con incumbents hang on against strong NDP challengers.

- In what should be a bigger story than it seems to have become so far, Marco Fortier points out that the Cons have tossed aside any requirement for experience or competence in order to permit religious-based charities to receive large amounts of federal money.

- There's plenty of good news in the vote mobs which are working to get students and other young Canadians voting. But Susan Delacourt points out that as per usual, there's plenty of work being done by less positive actors to suppress turnout as well:

Valeriote also says that people with Liberal signs on their lawns have been getting visits from volunteers identifying themselves as Conservative campaign workers, who are warning these would-be Liberal voters that voting for Michael Ignatieff will result in handing control of the country to Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe.

Like Volpe, Valeriote is saying that this is all part of a voter-suppression effort. Green Party leader Elizabeth May talked about this at the Star's editorial-board meeting a couple of weeks ago -- the nasty tactics may not drive any votes toward a particular party, but instead, disgust people enough about politics that they simply stay away from the ballot box on May 2. Much of the Liberals' whole campaign this time has been focused on boosting turnout, so these 12-year-old-kid pranks could be a real problem.

Then again, it all does give average citizens a glimpse of what's become business as usual in Ottawa in recent years.

- And finally, Alison clarifies what the Cons mean in saying they're "Here for Canada".

- Update: Also, what Rick Mercer said:



- Update II: I didn't liveblog last night's Palliser forum due to a lack of wireless reception. But I'll point out that one of the most impressive parts of Noah Evanchuk's perfomance was his consistent stand to the effect that all voices - including those opposing him - should be heard at the forum and elsewhere.

Unfortunately, this fact check misses the mark on the same point in suggesting that it's somehow a failing for a couple of Libs to have not removed critical comments from their Facebook pages.

Tuesday Morning Links

This and that for your Tuesday reading.

- The Cons are apparently looking to take the fun out of #spotasenator by making it no challenge whatsoever - using the thoroughly embarrassing Pamela Wallin to raise money in Palliser. For those looking to put people over patronage appointments, Noah Evanchuk's next Regina canvassing blitz happens Sunday.

- Meanwhile, the Cons' cone of silence extends to Canada's northern reaches, as Western Arctic candidate Sandy Lee (while enjoying her own #spotasenator moment with Mike Duffy) has refused interviews unless she receives a copy of the questions in advance.

- Martin Patriquin and Phillipe Gohier's discussion of the state of Quebec politics is well worth a look - particularly in noting how the NDP is appealing to voters who have previously backed the Bloc as a populist option.

- Linda McQuaig is right to note that positive results from a coalition may be well within reach. But it's worth also recognizing that one of the main obstacles is the Libs' continued insistence on undermining any effort to build multi-partisan hope for change.

- Finally, pogge annihilates Adam Radwanski's willingness to accept the Cons' spin about their track record even faintly resembling "competent government".

Tuesday Morning Riding Links

With #elxn41 in full swing, let's take a quick look at a few noteworthy developments at the riding level.

- First, the sudden retirement of Lib MP Raymonde Folco may result in a fascinating riding battle in Laval-Les Îles - a seat which was nearly won by the Bloc in 2006, and saw substantial improvements for the NDP and Cons in 2008. With the Libs starting from scratch in the middle of a campaign (and the Cons also apparently without a listed candidate), the Bloc might be a slight favourite to start - but it's not hard to envision a true four-way race which leaves all parties guessing until election day.

- There's much less doubt who's in contention in Palliser. And it's worth noting that Jack Layton's Regina and Moose Jaw stops yesterday were both in the riding - signalling that it's rightly at the top of the NDP's list of Con seats which can be won with a strong local effort.

- Meanwhile, the Cons' attempt to target Linda Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona has taken a turn for the embarrassing, as disgraced former staffer Sebastien Togneri is taking a break from being the subject of an RCMP investigation to lend his services to Ryan Hastman's campaign. I only hope we'll also get to see Hastman live-tweet about door-knocking with Bruce Carson.

- Finally, just in case we needed a reminder as to whose side the Cons are actually on, it shouldn't pass without comment that the Cons are apparently entirely happy to recruit a military procurement lobbyist to carry their banner against NDP MP Carol Hughes in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing.

Harper Holidays - By Their Own Account

Wouldn't it be nice if your job allowed you to do nothing your boss could discern for a period of over a month? Clearly Palliser MP Ray Boughen is just one of many Con MPs living the dream.

Ray Boughen: I'm Not Doing Much

Ray Boughen last month, explaining why we shouldn't worry that prorogation will mean that he's taking a vacation:

Although there won’t be any legislation passed until after all politicians head back to Ottawa in March, Boughen said the House is just one aspect of what an MP does on a regular basis.

“I plan to be here (in Palliser) every day from now until we go back to the House,” he told the Times-Herald on Wednesday, adding an MP facilitates between his or her riding and the various ministries, doing such things as campaigning for federal funding.

Ray Boughen today, explaining why he's doing nothing to stop the federal government from pulling its funding for First Nations University of Canada:

Conservative MP Ray Boughen, who represents Palliser, said he didn't have much to say on the decision taken by the federal government.

"Backbenchers aren't involved in a lot of these decisions," he said.

Now might be a good time to stop by Noah's site to help make sure Palliser gets a representative who actually has something to say about issues that matter in the riding.

On new beginnings

While there's still a bit of work yet to be done to close off the last great battle in Saskatchewan politics, the next ones are also coming into view. And Noah Evanchuk's newly-unveiled website and campaign launch should offer up some useful ideas for anybody wondering what comes next.

Here's Noah on his reasons for running:

As a lawyer, I am no stranger to uphill fights. I frequently defend those who have no voice, who society has no time for. Throughout my career, I have seen successive Liberal and Conservative governments import American Republican policies. I have seen our court system swamped by a caseload where poor people, First Nations and Métis people, those suffering from mental illness are over-represented. I have seen the presumption of innocence, the cornerstone of our justice system, systematically eroded.

I have had enough.

In a democratic system, it is up to the people to effect change. In Canada today, only the New Democratic Party is fighting for the change we need. Only New Democrats are fighting for real justice.

Of course, there's some work to be done within the NDP as well in the broader political system to try to work on a criminal justice system focused on real outcomes rather than manufactured outrage. But Noah's prominent role in an underdog provincial campaign should leave little room for doubt that he'll be a strong voice both inside and outside of the party - so stop by and get involved in the effort to win him a place in Parliament.

On advancement

A couple of notes worth mentioning in Saskatchewan's NDP circles...

First, the Saskatchewan NDP's provincial caucus has named Stephen Moore as its new chief of staff. And aside from congratulating Stephen on the hiring, I'll note that the move has some interesting ramifications both provincially and federally.

On the provincial level, the hiring looks to be an astute one, as Moore's party commitment, progressive bona fides and base of knowledge and skills figure to be major assets for the provincial caucus as it charts its next course. But of course, that comes at the apparent cost of someone who I'd hoped would continue to carry the party banner in my home riding of Wascana - opening up another Regina-area seat for potential new contenders.

Speaking of which, one prospective campaign in the most promising of those ridings looks to be off to a good start. Noah Evanchuk hasn't yet unveiled an official website, but he's already working on fund-raising in advance of a formal launch.

Of course, Evanchuk was already doing well in his Facebook support at over 300 and counting. But it's the more the merrier for both public endorsements and fund-raising to support his campaign as it develops - so feel free to stop by and show some support for what looks to be the best chance of pulling Palliser out of Con hands and into those of the NDP.

This here Facebook thingamabob may just be a keeper

Not surprisingly, Noah Evanchuk's campaign for the federal NDP's nomination in Palliser is looking to build on the online support mechanisms used effectively by the Meili and Pedersen campaigns in the provincial leadership race. And all signs are positive so far - as a page which just went live last night already boasts 120 supporters and counting.

Meanwhile, the Saskatchewan NDP as a whole has also unveiled a new page in the last month. And for those keeping track, the NDP has accumulated 396 supporters so far - compared to only 172 for the Saskatchewan Party caucus page which has been around for months.

Update: Jason rightly points out another Saskatchewan Party group with just under 600 members - which oddly seems to be in a state of disuse compared to the caucus page with a third as many followers. But nonetheless, let's take this as a challenge: how long will it take the NDP's new page to overtake that number?

On deep benches

Since I posted last week about Noah Evanchuk's intention to seek the NDP nomination for Palliser, there's been a flurry of discussion about impending nomination possibilities. So let's take a closer look at what we might see in Regina's other ridings.

To start with, it's worth noting that at least two of the three other local ridings have strong 2008 candidates who (to my knowledge at least) haven't ruled out running again. In Regina Qu'Appelle, Janice Bernier held onto the 32% share of the vote won by former MP Lorne Nystrom in the previous two elections, and won nothing but accolades as a committed and adept campaigner. And in my home riding of Wascana, Stephen Moore likewise earned nothing but praise personally in holding the NDP's share of the vote at 15% despite a fevered battle between the Libs and Cons over Ralph Goodale's riding.

I'll assume for the moment that Fred Kress won't take another shot at Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre after stepping in at the last minute for Moe Kovatch in 2008. But even there, his success in similarly holding the NDP's share of the vote - despite his starting late, and facing a Liberal star candidate who crashed and burned - should make him a strong possibility if he does want to run again.

From that starting point, the question is how much turnover there might be before the next set of nominations. And more than a few people are tossing out suggestions.

Yens Pedersen in Regina Qu'Appelle? Doubtful, as everything I've heard suggests that he'll stick to the provincial scene, and I'd expect him to want to run in either a riding with a strong prospect of success or one where coming up short won't be seen as a mark against him. (In that respect, in an ideal scenario where the NDP made the federal scene its sole priority, it might be interesting if Pedersen were to say "yes" to Wascana: would a high-profile three-way race finally push Goodale to his tipping point, or even open the door for him to be beaten without going voluntarily?)

"Meili folks" in Regina Qu'Appelle and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre? While I don't see Buckdog's post as actually making this suggestion, it could reenergize the party's Regina base in a hurry. That said, though, I wonder whether the Meili movement might be best focused on a couple of adjacent ridings rather than spreading itself into most or all of the ridings - allowing for the Meili supporters to put in a concentrated effort in the west or south of Regina, while freeing up the NDP's existing support base to work the other two ridings.

Putting all of the above together, the ideal scenario based on the names and ideas now in play might be something along the lines of Evanchuk in Palliser, another Meili stalwart in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, and Bernier and Moore each taking a second shot at their respective ridings. But there's every possibility that other top candidates might surface from among Dwain Lingenfelter's personal connections, or be brought in thanks to the federal party's increased organizing efforts.

The question then would be how to fit that kind of talent into an already-strong slate. Which, needless to say, is not a bad problem for the NDP to face going into the next federal campaign - and hopefully it's one that will only get more complicated next time out thanks to the addition of incumbencies to the mix.

(Edit: fixed wording.)

Noah Evanchuk to Seek Palliser NDP Nomination

One of the main questions coming out of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign was how much of the movement behind Ryan Meili and Yens Pedersen would keep up its momentum once the leadership race was over. And there's some good news to report on that front: Noah Evanchuk, one of Meili's key Regina organizers, is planning to seek the NDP's nomination in the Palliser riding.

I'm not aware of a date being set for a nomination contest, and it could be that others will also come forward to contest a seat where Don Mitchell and Jo-Anne Dusel both put up strong second-place finishes in the last two elections following Dick Proctor's painfully close loss in 2004. But all indications are that Evanchuk is looking to build on Meili's model to take back Palliser for the federal party - and based on the structure that's already in place, there's plenty of reason to like his chances.

(Edit: Fixed typo.)

Striking distance

While it shouldn't come as much surprise that the race in Palliser looks to be a close two-way race between the Cons' Ray Boughen and the New Democrats' Don Mitchell, the appointment of Cal Johnston as the Libs' candidate had seemed to make for slightly more danger of a three-way race. But the release of a poll showing Mitchell within 6 points of Boughen among all voters - with Johnston a distant third, and nearly 19 per cent of voters undecided - should leave no doubt who's in the best position to move the riding out of Conservative hands.

On explanations

I'm not sure if the Libs will necessarily see it as good news. But word comes out today that at least one of the candidates whose withdrawal was claimed by some to be a reaction to Dion's policies had entirely different reasons to step down.

Update: Now if only Oledzki were a Con, he'd be up for a patronage appointment by now.

Update II: Count on the National Post editorial board to keep up their earlier spin on Oledzki's departure - complete with an attempt to inflate his individual significance - even after there's better information available.

On openings

Kady O'Malley is likely right in pointing out that there's no reason to read too much into the latest couple of Lib candidate departures. But while any national impact may be doubtful, it's worth highlighting that Garry Oledzki's decision to step down may have a significant effect at the riding level in Palliser.

Previously, the riding looked like one with three fairly strong and well-organized contenders, a combination which in the past has resulted in vote splits favouring Con incumbent Dave Batters. But with Batters on medical leave and Oledzki out of the race, the door looks to be wide open for NDP candidate and former Moose Jaw mayor Don Mitchell to get a significant jump on his competition. And it figures to be awfully tough for a new Lib candidate or a recovering Batters to make up that ground before an election this fall - potentially pushing Palliser from somewhat of a second-tier pickup opportunity to one of the NDP's best chances in Saskatchewan.