#SKNDPLDR Roundup

A brief roundup of news and coverage from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign as Sunday's convention approaches.

- There's been some more media coverage at a high level, including Adam Hunter offering an overview of the campaign; Global News interviewing Harvey; CKRM profiling both candidates; and Katia St. Jean offering profiles in French. 

- Meanwhile, those looking for somewhat deeper dives with the candidates will find them from Lenore Swystun's Civically Speaking, including an interview with Harvey going into her experience of racial divisions in Saskatchewan, and one with Beck with Beck which includes some discussion of her recognition of the effects of inequality and poverty based on her family's history. 

- Finally, the last interim financial disclosure statement before the vote has been released (if not reported on). And it looks to rule out any prospect of a shift in the race behind the scenes, as Beck raised roughly $13,000 in May to Harvey's approximately $2,500. 

For those who haven't yet voted, the deadline to do so is Sunday at 3 PM. And we'll find out shortly thereafter who will lead the NDP into the next election. 

#SKNDPLDR: On Traps

The final official debate of the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign was the first I had the opportunity to see, and I'd hoped that it would result in some meaningful and constructive contrast. But instead, the debate and its aftermath looked largely to push both candidates toward the key traps for their respective campaigns.

For Carla Beck, that trap was the tendency to retreat constantly into tiresome talking points and vague generalities. 

Beck was obviously comfortable with the debate stage, and appears to have stuck with the plan she brought to the debate. But the nature of that plan resulted in a frustrating experience for anybody hoping to find out much about what Beck would be interested in pursuing as leader. 

On the few occasions when she chose to address issues with any substance (normally only where that meant critiquing specific government policies), observers could see a hint of her capacity to challenge Scott Moe. 

But the bulk of the time, no matter how obvious the opportunity or need to offer some meaningful content, her responses led back to the "meet people where they're at" catchphrase which offers zero useful information - other than that she's more interested in being everything to everyone than putting forward a vision. That might seem like sound strategy as the favourite in a leadership campaign, but it stands to set Beck off on exactly the wrong course as the spotlight grows brighter and both party members and the general public get to know her better.

Unfortunately, Kaitlyn Harvey didn't match Beck's comfort with the format, struggling to fit answers into time limits and structure her answers even on friendly issues. (Of course, it didn't help that a few of the questions themselves were framed in ways that played far more to Beck's positioning than to Harvey's.)

That need for more focus was then exacerbated by Harvey's comments portraying herself as a target and linking the campaign back to the party's treatment of Ryan Meili. Which isn't to say those can't be fair areas of concern - but for a candidate trying desperately to get party members to focus on substantive issues, they serve primarily as distractions which make it hard for her policy message to get through. 

The end result was thus likely to strengthen Beck's position for all the wrong reasons. Voters open to considering both candidates may have seen enough inexperience to rule out Harvey, even as Beck did little to earn their confidence.

Once again, what happens from this point forward may well be academic: many votes have already been cast, and nothing has changed the basic dynamics of the campaign. But it is still worth watching and hoping the candidates will be able to extricate themselves from where they've ended up so far in the informal forums and convention to come.

#SKNDPLDR Roundup

Saskatchewan's NDP leadership race continues toward convention day on the 26th. And it's starting to get somewhat more attention outside of core party circles - though it's unfortunately too late for newly-interested people to sign up and vote. So let's take a quick look at the latest. 

- Tonight is the final leadership forum, with options to view in person or online. And for those concerned about ensuring there are events covering a range of prospective voters, there will be another Saskatoon forum on the 15th (the second organized by the Saskatoon Metro group), followed by one from the Southwest Region on the 20th. 

- Found in an earlier report on the campaign are these membership numbers from the party's president Sheila Whelan:

Since the launch of the leadership race, Whelan said the party signed up about 2,400 new members over the past two months for a total of 7,295.

During the contest between Meili and Trent Wotherspoon in 2018, the NDP had 13,414 members eligible to vote.

Note that the membership totals had similarly been in the 11,000-13,000 range for the party's other leadership campaigns since 2009. But it will be worth watching whether the lower number also reflects a more committed core of voters - which could lead to a countervailing increase in the percentage of people who end up casting a ballot (which has normally been around 80%). 

- Kaitlin Harvey has updated her platform with additional issues (presumably based at least in part on the policy survey which is no longer open), 

- Finally, Murray Mandryk has offered profiles of each of Carla Beck and Kaitlyn Harvey. And Global News interviewed Beck about her run. 

#SKNDPLDR Candidate Profile - Kaitlyn Harvey

The flip side of Carla Beck's position as the ultra-establishment candidate - backed by most of the NDP's existing organizational structure, and using that position to play to those with the most wealth and power within the province - has been an obvious opening for an outsider candidate. And Kaitlyn Harvey has taken up that mantle with at least some success so far.

It helps that Harvey has a solid background for her campaign message, raising the prospect of representation for long-neglected groups (including a personal stake in the Saskatchewan Party's politics of neglect) combined with a strong professional background which leaves no room for question as to her credentials. 

Unfortunately, Harvey started the campaign at a severe disadvantage in name recognition and internal support, and it's doubtful that she'll be able to close the gap in a way that will affect the outcome of the campaign. And that isn't entirely attributable to the structure of the campaign. 

Even for some period of time after she entered the race, Harvey's campaign had little apparent public impact, including the glaring lack of public endorsements within the province until recently. While she's now starting to hold frequent events and receive visible shows of support, there looks to be too small a time frame in which to transition from convincing her natural core of activists to reaching the full breadth of the party membership - particularly when the voting window is already open.

In addition, there's also some reason for question whether Harvey's choice of messaging is right for an effort to convince voters to support an insurgent alternative. 

From the standpoint of a completely neutral, dispassionate observer, a mindset of risk assessment and mitigation would represent a highly valuable asset in the leader of a government. But there's precious little evidence that the message will resonate with anybody who needs to be convinced of the need for change.

Instead, there's inevitably at least some gap between what makes for the most responsible decision-making in power, and what will convince voters to offer their support. On that front, Harvey's message seems to have all the possible down-sides of Ryan Meili's evidence-based approach (which precluded definitive statements about possibilities which seemed to merit study rather than immediate promises), without the overarching positive vision of a "healthy society" as the end goal to be pursued. And her presentation in person tends toward a higher level of frustration (and lower level of optimism) than would seem ideal for a candidate whose success depends on the promise of something better. 

That said, Harvey is doing plenty both to raise questions which deserve discussion within the leadership campaign, and to boost her own profile as somebody who can shape the direction of the NDP and the province. And even the party stalwarts who have thrown in their lot with Beck would do well to ensure that Harvey and her critiques play a major role in the NDP's future. 

#SKNDPLDR: Membership Deadline

I'll be posting more about the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race in the days to come, including putting together candidate profiles and updating my campaign reference page.

For those interested in having a say, though, today is the last day to buy or renew a membership in order to have a say. So for those looking to influence the future course of the NDP and the province, now is the time to get involved. 

#SKNDPLDR Roundup

So far, the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign has been awfully quiet. And with a membership deadline looming for anybody who wants to be able to vote in the leadership election, time is running out for anybody looking to attract support from outside the party's existing membership base.

While it remains to be seen whether she'll success, Kaitlyn Harvey has taken a couple of steps which should pique some interest: announcing the endorsement of Seth Klein as one of the country's prominent voices for climate action, and unveiling a platform based on principles of sustainability and harm prevention, as well as a far more honest assessment of the costs of maintaining the status quo. 

There's some obvious potential for those messages both in establishing Harvey's bona fides within the climate justice movement, and for the party's future path as a part of that movement. But time is running short to convert that potential into memberships and votes. 

Meanwhile, Carla Beck's campaign has demurred from releasing a detailed platform. Instead, she's offered a list of priorities with a few policy proposals, along with an explanation for not going into much more detail than that. (And there's actually another reasonable argument on that point which she doesn't address, which is the effort underway to improve the NDP's internal policy development.) 

Not surprisingly, Beck has also added to her list of endorsements - though it's hard to see those as a novel development in a race where she's had establishment support lined up behind her from day one. 

We'll find out fairly soon whether there are any surprises in the membership numbers which may affect the balance of the race. In the meantime, though, a quiet campaign looks to favour Beck as the default favourite. 

Saskatchewan NDP Leadership 2022 Reference Page

A one-stop source for general information about the 2022 Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign.

General Information
Saskatchewan NDP Constitution 

Saskatchewan NDP Membership

Candidate Information

Candidate	Website	Twitter	Facebook	Profile
Carla Beck	CarlaForLeader.ca	@CarlaBeckSK	Carla Beck
Kaitlyn Harvey	ChangeStartsHere.ca	@KaitlynHarveySK	Kaitlyn Harvey

Upcoming Dates

May 6: Candidate Entry Deadline

May 13: Membership Deadline

June 26: Leadership Convention

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#SKNDPLDR22 - The Race is On

I've previously noted the danger that the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign - however unnecessary it should have been to begin with - might be particularly damaging to the party if it failed to produce some meaningful challenge to Carla Beck as the first entrant and front-runner. 

From that standpoint, it's great news that Kaitlyn Harvey is entering the race - and doubly so for the prospect that her entrance will highlight some of the most important issues which have been conspicuously absent both in Beck's campaign so far, and in the NDP's recent efforts in opposition. 

Just as Beck's campaign has focused on personality and endorsements rather than policy, Harvey's launch was exceedingly light on any specific policy proposals. But it may be understandable if the leadership campaign includes less policy specifics than usual in a context where the party's general policy-making apparatus is being revamped as a result of its post-election review. 

What Harvey has been willing to put front and centre, however, is her advocacy for climate justice and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples. Both reflect issues which should be touchstones for progressive activists and voters. But both have all too frequently been treated as taboo topics and obstacles to support rather than points of priority in the party's political decision-making. (And unfortunately, the otherwise justifiable focus on a 24/7/365 campaign has thus far led the party toward even more risk aversion and focus on headlines and news cycles, rather than any focus building deeper awareness and support on issues of principle.)

Presuming her campaign themes reflect that background, Harvey should thus at the very least ensure that the most important questions facing both the NDP and the province are subject to some meaningful thought in the course of the leadership race. And I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the opportunity to organize for climate justice through the leadership campaign helps propel Harvey to a far stronger result than would be expected based on the candidates' public profiles to date.