#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Dru Oja Jay discusses how activist movements can maximize their impact in a second consecutive minority Parliament by demanding meaningful and lasting change as the price for NDP support. 

- Andrew Jackson notes that timidity in presenting a sharp progressive contrast to the Libs' platform may have led to the softening of NDP support when it mattered most. Olivia Stefanovich discusses a few perspectives on the strengths and weaknesses of the NDP's campaign. And Tyler Shipley writes about the limitations on pursuing a left agenda through electoral politics in their current form. 

- Meanwhile, John Michael McGrath points out the need for the Libs to engage in some reflection of their own - particularly as to the public's recognition that nothing mattered more to them than reinforcing their own power. 

- In a similar vein, Liam O'Connor and Sara Birrell discuss the frustrations of young voters with the prospect of having action to make housing available kicked down the road yet again. And Kai Nagata writes that the election ultimately left us right back where we started while exposing some of the obstacles to progress. 

- Finally, Colin Walmsley notes that a first-past-the-post electoral system exacerbates geographic divides, including an entrenched rural-urban divide in Parliament. 

Sunday Afternoon Links

This and that for your Sunday reading.

- Ian Austen takes Alberta's shame to the international stage by pointing out how the UCP's "best summer ever" has given rise to the fourth wave of COVID-19. Adam Hunter points out how similarly disastrous pandemic mismanagement hasn't yet produced the same political consequences for Scott Moe as for Jason Kenney, while Doug Cuthand calls out Moe for putting politics over public health. And Zak Vescera reports on the Moe government's decision to start withholding modeling information which has demonstrated how reckless it's been.

- Meanwhile, Mackenzie Read talks to Nazeem Muhajarine about the need for more public health steps to get Saskatchewan's fourth wave under control. Lynn Giesbrecht reports on the hundreds of cases already known to have arisen in two weeks following the return to schools this fall. Dan Jones reports on the responses to Moe's attempt to point fingers at other for his failure to get people vaccinated in Northern and rural areas. And Jaela Bernstein discusses how underpaid frontline workers are bearing the brunt of anti-vaxxer rage.

- Supriya Dwivedi writes that the recent federal election highlighted the Canadian media's lack of recognition of how to deal with far-right disinformation. And Michael Spratt notes that while a manufactured controversy over a question about discrimination was turned to the advantage of right-wing parties, it also served to confirm the distinct and ongoing problem of racism in Quebec.

- Aaron Saad discusses how Canada's governing political parties have prevented their bases from fully understanding and engaging with the climate crisis. And Chris Hatch comments on the climate implications of the federal election.

-Finally, Loren Balhorn writes about the continued importance of working-class political parties to provide voters with a plausible mechanism for social change.

Friday Morning Links

Assorted content to end your week.

- Katherine Wu, Ed Yong and Sarah Zhang set out six rules which will shape how we handle the next wave of COVID - including recognition that vaccination alone isn't going to be sufficient to avoid a tragic human toll.

- Yasmine Ghania reports on the Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation's rightful frustration with the lack of isolation for COVID-positive students. Zak Vescera reports on some of the patients who are missing out on needed care and treatment because the Moe government has allowed COVID to run rampant. And the Canadian Press reports on the suspension of organ donations as a particularly damaging outcome. 

- Linda McQuaig calls for the NDP to use the balance of power to pursue hearings on a wealth tax - though the more substantive option would seem to involve avoiding that step and pressing the demand directly. 

- Meanwhile, Sabrina Maddeaux writes that we shouldn't be surprised to see the Libs refusing reform of an electoral system which disproportionately benefits them at the expense of other parties and interests. 

- Finally, Wyatt Schierman writes about the lack of much for anybody to celebrate arising out of Monday's election. And Sonia Theroux notes that if Justin Trudeau were serious about wanting stability and a longer mandate, he'd be best served working on a formal agreement rather than continuing his pattern of repeated games of confidence-vote chicken. 

On echoes

Plenty of commentators have pointed out the symmetry between this year's election and that of 2008 in terms of low voter turnout and general dissatisfaction with the outcome on the part of all parties. But it's worth noting the similarities between the two campaigns and their aftermath on the part of the NDP in particular.

2008 was treated as a golden opportunity for Jack Layton and the NDP to improve their standing. But even with the most popular leader among the national parties, a well-run campaign, and seemingly uninspiring or downright self-destructive competitors, the NDP ended up with...a small increase in the percentage of the popular vote due to declining overall turnout; a slightly improved seat count which fell far short of the party's number of targeted ridings and left it in fourth place in the Parliamentary standings; and punditry which questioned Layton's strategy of running for the position of Prime Minister, and asked whether he might have hit his ceiling as the party's leader. 

Sound familiar?

Needless to say, it was for the best that Layton was able to continue applying his experience and popularity to the cause of building the NDP for another election cycle. And any attempt to treat the replacement of a generally popular and able leader as a cure-all is as misguided now as it would have been in 2008. 

Indeed, the next election cycle may well match 2011 as one in which a leader with strong recognition and approval is a particularly potent force. 

The Cons look to be deciding whether or not to push Erin O'Toole out the door for making even token efforts toward moderation. And any review process and leadership campaign on their end raises a real possibility of schisms within the party, an extreme shift to the right which could disqualify them as a perceived alternative government, or the Cons' version of Michael Ignatieff's saviour complex and lack of self-awareness. 

Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau's negative impressions figure to be thoroughly baked in at this point, meaning that voters may be primed for change by the next (hopefully non-pandemic) election. Yet unlike some commentators, I'd have to see it as unlikely that he'd be pushed without wanting to leave - or that he'll choose to leave government without pursing another shot at a majority as long as there's any hope of winning one. 

To be clear, there's plenty the NDP needs to reckon with as a result of the campaign. Among others, those include the need for clearer and more ambitious policy (an area where I'll again point out COVID response as an obvious lost opportunity), as well as concerns being raised about a centralized campaign which spent plenty in the pursuit of a relatively small number of ridings, yet had difficulty converting those into seats. 

But the fact that there's room to learn lessons doesn't mean it's time to throw out the work the NDP has already done. And it shouldn't come as any surprise if the path of slow progress leading to a breakthrough is one the NDP can navigate again. 

[Edit: fixed typo.]

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from the aftermath of Canada's federal election.

- Christo Aivalis is the latest to point out that nobody emerged from the election as a winner. And John Packer writes that there's an ever-stronger case for a coalition government given the low level of popular support for the party with a plurality of seats. 

- Katrina Miller notes that the idea of taxing the rich isn't about to disappear anytime soon, and that it makes sense for it to be one of the outcomes of Monday's election. 

- Karl Nerenberg writes about the multiple barriers to voting which limited turnout and affected the fairness of the election. And Ole Hendrickson argues that the low turnout also serves as evidence of discontent with an electoral system which fails to reflect the will of voters. 

- Pam Palmater highlights why we need to be worried about the PPC's increased number of votes as an indication of a dangerous far-right movement. 

- Finally, Nia Williams writes about the demand by Canadian fossil fuel workers to see the Libs make good on the promise of retraining as part of a just transition. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

Assorted reactions to a federal election which changed so little.

- The Canadian Labour Congress points out that we can't afford to be stuck with the status quo when there's an opportunity for parties to chart a more equitable and sustainable course for Canada. And Aaron Wherry wonders how the federal parties will adapt to another apparent run of minority Parliaments by working on systemic cooperation rather than turning every confidence vote into a game of chicken, while Alex Marland points out the range of outcomes in historical minority governments from generational change to complete gridlock. 

- Seth Klein writes that the new Parliament will hold Canada's climate future in its hands. And Morgan Sharp argues that young voters will be looking for the parties to work together on that front, while Vijay Tupper makes the case that Jagmeet Singh needs to serve to counterbalance the influence of the fossil fuel sector. 

- Justin Ling writes that the main factors driving the outcome proved to be fatigue and resignation. Cameron Holmstrom writes that there were ultimately no winners among Canada's political parties.  

- Meanwhile, PressProgress reports on the problems with ballot box access in a pandemic election, including unconscionably long lines in some areas and a complete lack of polls in others. 

- Finally, Armine Yalnizyan offers a reminder that the pandemic's disproportionate impact on women is far from over - and that countering its effects needs to be another top priority in the next Parliament.

#Elxn44 E-Day Links

News and notes as Canada's federal election draws to a close.

- David Moscrop discusses how a campaign nobody wanted is leaning toward grudging continuation of the status quo which the Libs tried to discard. And Ryan Maloney reports on the technical problems arising largely out of a snap pandemic election. 

- The Star offers its endorsement - which predictably supports the Libs, but recognizes both the contribution the NDP has made in responding to the pandemic so far and the need for it to be strengthened in pushing for progressive policy going forward. And Alex Ballingall reports on Jagmeet Singh's pursuit of tax fairness as the key to NDP support once voters have had our say. 

- PressProgress reports on the choice of multiple Con MPs to use a petition service which sends signatories' data to be used by far-right groups in Europe. And Caroline Orr writes about the connection between anti-vaxxers and the far-right PPC - and how the election doesn't figure to be the end of the story. 

- Meanwhile, Dave Cournoyer discusses Alberta's impact on the election - which now figures to be based primarily on the motivation of voters across Canada to avoid a Kenney-style catastrophe. 

- Finally, Olamide Olaniyan writes that systemic racism should be a major election issue - though it's worth noting that at least one party does actually take it seriously from a policy standpoint. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Victoria Nicolau reports on the Native Women's Association of Canada's campaign scorecard, showing the NDP well ahead of other parties in addressing the issues facing Indigenous women. And Omayra Issa and Theresa Kliem talk to young Indigenous people in Saskatchewan about what they want to see - and how the establishment parties are falling short.

- Katrina Miller and Jamie Kirkpatrick discuss how the Cons' refusal to even countenance a necessary transition to a clean economy stands to endanger the future of young Canadians both in polluting their planet and denying them a place in the global economy as it develops. 

- Toby Sanger writes that the Cons' economic plans predictably involve taking services away from people who need them in order to hand money to those who already have more than enough. And Patrick Brethour notes that the Libs' tenure in office has fallen short of Justin Trudeau's promises of economic growth.

- Catharine Tunney discusses why it may take several days to learn conclusive results from tomorrow's election. And John Brewin explores what we might expect in the Parliamentary session to follow.

- Finally, Nancy MacDonald examines what's new in the NDP's campaign. And Christian Paas-Lang wonders whether the 10th anniversary of the first Orange Wave in Quebec might see a resurgence - in part due to some familiar faces who have returned to the political fray.

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- D.T. Cochrane reviews the parties' platforms and finds the NDP's to be both the most progressive and the most fiscally responsible. And Martin Lukacs and Ben Cuthbert examine the voting records of the Libs and the Cons - finding a regular pattern of the two voting together to block progressive priorities. 

- John Woodside reports on the Climate Action Tracker's conclusion that the Trudeau Libs' climate policies rate as "highly insufficient" to avert climate breakdown.  

- PressProgress continues to offer plenty of important insight into Erin O'Toole and his party - this time pointing out both O'Toole's eagerness to make common cause with health care privatizers, and Brampton South candidate Ramandeep Brar's belief in an entitlement to silence a former worker who dared to raise issues of wage theft and abusive working conditions. 

- Meanwhile, Haseena Manek writes about Angella MacEwen's work to not only win a seat for herself, but build progressive capacity in Ottawa. 

- Finally, Joe Roberts traces the rise of the PPC to anger among Canadians, while noting the glaring need to ensure that people who recognize a need for change perceive a viable left-wing alternative to the politics of bigotry and hate. 

On politicization

There have been a couple of indications as to how Alberta's refusal to take basic health precautions in the face of COVID's fourth wave (and in all likelihood Saskatchewan's as well) can be traced to a willingness to govern based on the O'Toole Cons' campaign strategy rather than the health and well-being of citizens. But as long as we know Kenney is treating the issue solely as one of politics, there are a couple of implications worth raising. 

The first is that it's wrong to say that O'Toole is merely as bad as Kenney and other premiers in their pandemic response. Rather, O'Toole has been relying on them to be worse than they might have been otherwise if a refusal to protect public health didn't fit his political interests. And now, we've managed to reach the point where his valuation of the public interest is below even Kenney's.

But the second is that there may be another political factor at play. The UCP has been considering its options for most of this week. And if it had acted quickly, there would still have been time for people to apply for special ballots - allowing them to vote by mail, or at relatively quiet and low-traffic returning offices.

The deadline to apply for a special ballot expired on September 14. The UCP made the announcement of a state of emergency on September 15. 

As a result, while Kenney's announcement yesterday may not have fit perfectly with the Cons' campaign plans, it might nonetheless have fit with a general desire to distort election results toward the right. 

O'Toole's main concern is surely that a vaccine mandate and health rules will drive voters to the PPC - and anybody starting from a position of pandemic denial is unlikely to hesitate about venturing out to vote. But if there's a risk of also affecting voters who care about responsible pandemic management, they'll face conflicting forces: while they may be less inclined to accept the Cons as good-faith actors, they'll also be less likely to vote at all. 

That might be slightly worse than a wash for O'Toole in the short term, but it's entirely compatible with the interests of the UCP and its movement allies who want to be able to point to some more extreme option as an excuse for their own refusal to listen to anybody to the left of Attila the Hun. And we'll have every reason for suspicion the timing was aimed at that effort if we see Kenney, Scott Moe and their apologists point to PPC results as a driving force in their own future actions. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Christo Aivalis discusses Jagmeet Singh's much-needed willingness to take on the power of the rich to fight for a country that works for everybody. And Shelly Hagan writes about the resulting possibility of greater social contributions being required of those who can most afford to make them.  

- In contrast, Luke Savage highlights how Justin Trudeau's promises - particularly those aimed at progressive voters - are made to be broken. And the Centre for Canadian Progress offers (PDF) takes a look at the options for left-oriented voters on the key priorities of housing, climate change and pharmacare. 

- Richard Saillant reviews the parties' housing policies and finds the NDP's to be the one best suited to meeting the needs of people in precarious situations. And Richard Cuthbertson and Alaina Luck report that the Libs' idea of an "affordable housing" plan is to provide private developers with preferential terms to build units which cost up to double double the average rent within a community. 

- Meanwhile, Jackie Brown, Amit Arya and Andrew Longhurst discuss how to reach the NDP's goal of ensuring that long-term care homes are focused on care rather than profit. 

- Finally, David Akin examines the state of the race and concludes that we're likely headed for another minority Parliament. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from Canada's election campaign.

- Mohy-Dean Tabbara and Garima Talwar Kapoor examine what the parties are offering to combat poverty, while noting the need for more ambition in the effort. 

- Alex Hemingway points out that while the NDP's platform offers a start, there's plenty of room to raise far more money by taxing the rich with somewhat more (if far from unlimited) zeal. 

- Zoe Yunker examines where the parties stand on renewable energy, noting in particular that the NDP is the only party committed to closing carbon pricing loopholes for fossil-fuel-fired power plants. 

- The Globe and Mail's editorial board contrasts the promise of actual child care spaces from each of the NDP and the Libs against the Cons' belated tax bauble. And Bill Blaikie writes that Erin O'Toole's weasel wording on health care is intended to distract from his plans for increased privatization. 

- Finally, David Beers interviews Chris Tenove about the often-toxic social media environment - and a few ways to try to move toward more positive and productive forms of discussion. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Khalden Dhatsenpa and Gavin Armitage-Ackerman write about the need to treat housing as a human right rather than a commodity. 

- PressProgress reports on an internal Health Canada report showing how the NDP's plan for dental coverage would remove crucial barriers to access to dental care while also reducing health costs.  

- Andrea Perrella and Brian Tanguay make the case to follow through on ending the first-past-the-post electoral system in favour of a proportional system. 

- Markham Hislop highlights the parties' positions on a just transition to a clean economy - with particular attention paid to the failure of either the Libs or the Cons to make anything of the sort a priority at what may be the best possible time to plan the transition. And David Climenhaga reports on the Alberta Oil War Room's apparent breaches of election financing requirements in demanding indefinite fossil fuel production and data mining for Conservative-connected groups. 

- The Care Economy offers a fact sheet on care issues in the election, as well as questions worth raising with candidates. 

- Finally, Leyland Cecco writes about Jagmeet Singh's growing appeal - along with the NDP's ability to influence policy in another likely minority Parliament. And Nick Taylor-Vaisey examines where the parties stand after last week's debate - with Singh emerging as the victor in public perceptions. 

On narrow targets

At this stage of the federal election campaign, the seemingly wide range of outcomes is entirely an artifice of a first-part-the-post system with multiple parties contending for seats. Barring a drastic change in the last week of the campaign (which will likely need to overcome votes already locked in as well as significant inertia), we figure to see the Libs and Cons relatively close to each other in the popular vote, with the NDP a relatively strong third in what would be a minority Parliament in all but the most extreme possible outcomes.

The most significant point of uncertainty looks to be the Bloc - which seemed to have fallen from its earlier support levels earlier in the campaign, only to have ticked upward more recently. And as the campaign has played out it's worth wondering whether the NDP may have limited its ability to capitalize on opportunities - in Quebec in particular, and to some extent across the country.

On the Quebec front, the NDP has been explicit about limiting its focus to 6-10 ridings. And while it might be understandable not to launch a high-resource offensive into all of the terrain included in the 2011 Orange Wave, it has to be a disappointment to treat even seats which the party held in 2015 as secondary considerations.

After all, the result is that voters who have supported the party under multiple past leaders will perceive the lack of attention even after party finances have stabilized. And even in the ridings which are specifically targeted, the sense of limited aspirations from a strategic standpoint is particularly dangerous for a campaign based on asking voters to dare to imagine more than the status quo. 

Moreover, there's reason for concern about the same phenomenon playing out across the country and setting a ceiling on party support which caps the plausible seat count in double digits (again lower than levels the NDP has already reached), and limits the prospects of pushing aside either of the Libs or the Cons.

There is reason for optimism that the NDP is back on its 2000s trajectory of building from one election cycle to the next, including by being able to close its campaign strongly in close seats. But if the NDP wants to be able to put its ambitious platform into effect, it needs to be no less daring in the seats it contests - and it will be a severe disappointment if an opportunity to make far larger gains is lost to an overly cautious campaign plan. 

[Edit: fixed typo, wording.]

On concealed motivations

Martin Lukacs worked for years documenting and explaining the Libs' concealed raison d'etre...

Whenever discontent builds up, the Liberals have always been there to safely channel it, like a political shock-absorber.

They’ll wink to the elite, and then pose as anti-establishment to the broader population.

And...Trudeau just...he blurted it out.

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Jeremiah Rodriguez reports on the omission of Canadians with disabilities from much of the election campaign, while pointing out the priorities which should be part of our discussion.

- Justin Ling brings the receipts as to what became of the Libs' promises of pharmacare and prescription drug affordability, and finds that industry lobbying has completely overridden any interest in ensuring Canadians have the medication they need.

- Jim Stanford discusses how the election will shape the future of Canadian labour and employment laws, particularly in determining whether gains which the Libs have reluctantly accepted under NDP pressure will last past the immediate moment. And Katrina Miller and Jamie Kirkpatrick write that the Cons' refusal to accept a just transition away from fossil fuel reliance would have dire consequences from a labour standpoint as well as an environmental one.

- Gregory Beatty calls out the Cons' attempt to portray themselves as moderate while assuring extremist supporters they'll get their way and ignoring some of the most important issues facing the country - along the willingness of far too much of Canada's media to repeat the lies.

- Finally, Ryan Patrick Jones reports on the NDP's costed platform which combines important investments in social priorities with a progressive tax system to keep the books healthy.

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- The Climate Emergency Alliance highlights the crucial climate change question which was left out of the federal debates - which is what parties will to do keep fossil fuel reserves in the ground when we manifestly can't afford to exploit them.

- Gordon Cleveland compares the Cons' tax bauble to the positive effects of an actual child care system which the Libs are promising and the NDP plans to deliver. Antony Hodgson looks at what's on offer for electoral reform, finding both the Greens and the NDP to have strong proposals. And PressProgress examines what the parties have on offer for workers and the labour movement.

- Tanya Talaga discusses how the Libs have utterly missed the point of reconciliation. And Kristy Kirkup and Bill Curry report on Justin Trudeau's unfathomable hesitancy to ensure fire safety for First Nations.

- Ben Cohen reports on Oshawa Lib candidate Afroza Hossain's pay-for-access policy for community appearances.

- Finally, Matthew Green offers his vision for a just recovery:

"There are still some people who would prefer to return back to the status quo, to the way things were, when what we're presenting in this #Elxn44 is a compelling vision for the way things could be and should be."

Join us for a #JustRecovery https://t.co/gF6333ymUz #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/eIdXYP35qW

— Matthew Green 🍊📈✊🏾 (@MatthewGreenNDP) September 10, 2021

#Elxn44 Roundup

Assorted content from Canada's federal election campaign. 

- Seth Klein examines the considerations to take into account in casting a ballot for real climate action. And Michelle Gamage compares the parties' positions on fossil fuel subsidies. 

- Andre Picard asks whether voters will actually be motivated by health care - a key question given the NDP's commitment to head-to-toe health care while the other parties try to keep their plans as vague as possible. And Ken Dryden theorizes that the key issue for voters should be child care. 

- Linda McQuaig calls out Erin O'Toole's blatant bullshitting as a means of smuggling anti-social policy into the halls of power. And the Canadian Labour Congress points out his dishonesty on pensions in particular. 

- Meanwhile, PressProgress fact-checks Justin Trudeau's indignant refusal to accept he's engaged in litigation against Indigenous children against his track record. And Kristy Kirkup reports on the increased risk of fire-related deaths on reserve as one more area in which Indigenous people are facing unnecessary dangers due to a lack of policy action. 

- Samantha Reusch writes about the importance of engaging young voters - even as Elections Canada has made their participation more difficult by eliminating its campus voting program. And Menaka Raman-Wilms reports on Jagmeet Singh's work in meeting younger voters on their platforms of choice. 

- Finally, Alex Marland laments the tendency of voters to cast ballots based on party affiliations rather than local candidates. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- David Miller discusses the steps Canada needs to take to help avert climate disaster - as well as the differences in the federal parties' plans to achieve them (or not). And Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood writes about some crucial climate myths, with the overall message that we can't pretend we're doing enough or on the right track already. 

- David McLaren rightly criticizes the Cons' attempt to entrench precarious gig work as a permanent trap for workers. 

- Elise Stolte discusses how the financialization of the housing market has made it impossible for many people to find affordable and acceptable rental homes. And Patrick Condon highlights the need for far more ambition in ensuring the right to housing is met, while also noting the crucial differences among the parties. 

- Christine Dobby takes a look at voters' choices on telecommunications, with particular attention to the Libs' broken promises to make connections to the world more affordable. 

- Brett Forester examines the parties' platforms on issues facing Indigenous people. 

- PressProgress contrasts the well-known answers to the opioid crisis (including ensuring a safe supply) against Erin O'Toole's insistence on pushing only access to private institutional rehab facilities. 

- Finally, Our Politics offers a slick (if necessarily simplified) look at the policies on offer from the major federal parties. And the Courage Coalition provides its take on the choices facing progressive voters and activists. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- PressProgress offers some background on the agitators disrupting Justin Trudeau's campaign events, while Max Fawcett points out why there's no reason for us to lend any undeserved credence to anti-vaxxers. But Meshall Awan notes that we also shouldn't allow posturing over fringe views to distract us from fundamental issues including the climate crisis.  

- Gillian Steward is rightly appalled at Erin O'Toole's willingness to follow the Kenney/Moe road to disaster in responding to COVID-19 and handling our Medicare system. 

- Adam Radwanski takes note of the seemingly unanimous agreement on the need for a rapid transition to electric vehicles. 

- Camellia Wong criticizes Elections Canada's refusal to allow for on-campus voting as a failure for democracy - which is particularly unacceptable when concentrated within a population which is about to set habits defining its level of participation for decades to come. 

- Finally, Luke Savage discusses why Justin Trudeau's attempt to manufacture a majority for himself is backfiring as voters decide they're ready for change.