Sunday, May 31, 2009

Leadership 2009 Week in Review - May 31

Another week of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race has passed without any major changes in the candidates' directions. Dwain Lingenfelter's campaign continues to cruise despite some public questions, Ryan Meili has added to his existing support base with some creative outreach efforts, Deb Higgins has stayed off the radar and Yens Pedersen has kept working largely behind the scenes to build support.

Like last week, more of the same figures to work mostly to the advantage of the front-runner. But there are a couple of other shifts in the numbers below (which again are based purely on my guesswork rather than any statistical analysis).

First, the Meili campaign's public push combined with Higgins' lack of much obvious presence would seem likely to position Meili as the magnet for early-ballot support to counter Lingenfelter. That not only puts him in a stronger position in his chances of sticking around to a final ballot against Lingenfelter, but may increase the (still extremely long) odds that he can move into first-ballot territory if Lingenfelter proves to have been damaged more than seems to be the case.

At the same time, though, an early fall from the race for Higgins would also release the pool most likely to have Lingenfelter as a second choice earlier in the voting process than might happen otherwise. Which results in a slight boost to Lingenfelter's chances of coming away with a victory on a later ballot.

With that in mind, then, here's this week's chart:

Candidate 1st Ballot Win Final Ballot Final Ballot Win 4th on 1st Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter 46 (44) 39 (42) 10 (9) 0 (0) 56 (53)
Ryan Meili 4 (2) 35 (36) 23 (24) 3 (4) 27 (26)
Deb Higgins 0 (0) 21 (25) 15 (19) 6 (4) 15 (19)
Yens Pedersen 0 (0) 5 (5) 2 (2) 41 (46) 2 (2)

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