On building pressure

The major news on the Saskatchewan political scene this week has involved the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association convention. But while there's been some reporting on the headlines as to what's taken place, it's worth noting the challenges this week's events may pose for both the Sask Party and the NDP.

To start with, it's of course noteworthy for what was undoubtedly a bad-news speech to be met with an unusually positive reception. But there may be more than one reason why delegates felt compelled to go along with a standing ovation for an announcement that they weren't going to receive promised funding:

The government also promised that a new, permanent revenue-sharing formula would begin this spring, so that communities would, on an annual basis, get the equivalent of a full one point of the PST. But instead of getting that full point — which would have equalled $221 million in the upcoming March budget — Wall confirmed revenue-sharing cash will likely be frozen.

Despite the news, SUMA delegates gave the premier a standing ovation, with the organization's president Allan Earle saying he's confident the government will fulfill its revenue-sharing promise in another year — especially since that will be the last budget before a provincial election.

"I am going to remain optimistic that that's the way things will play out," Earle told reporters.

"I think if for some reason the premier were to come back a year from now and say 'We're sorry but we're just not going to be able to do it,' we'd be extremely upset."

Regina Mayor Pat Fiacco said the freezing of municipal funding will have an impact on the city's plans, as officials involved in the budget process had been anticipating the increase promised last year.

"In Regina's case what it means is some of the projects that we wanted to put forward in the 2010 budget, and these projects are all based on managing growth, will be put on hold," Fiacco said.

But Fiacco, who publicly criticized the government late last year when Wall signaled he may not get to the full one-per cent revenue sharing formula as soon as planned, appeared conciliatory Monday.

"What we all heard from the premier today is that as a result of potash their budget has been compromised. As a result of potash, the municipal sector will see a freeze in their revenue sharing, but he also committed that in 2011 we will see the full one per cent of the PST to municipalities," said Fiacco.

Now, it's probably true that at least part of the delegates' motivation was to play nice this year in the hope that Wall would return the favour in next year's budget. But the statements from Earle and Fiacco - as well as others reported from the convention - would seem to fall short of justifying a standing ovation as opposed to a mere willingness to politely accept Wall's current position.

So why would SUMA's delegates act enthusiastic about Wall's latest position if delegates actually aren't that pleased with the Sask Party? I'd think there's a strong chance that at least some municipal leaders are acting out of self-preservation, figuring that they can't afford to be on Wall's bad side in the long term lest they be punished if he's still in power past the next provincial election.

Of course, it would seem on its face to represent a victory for Wall if he's sufficiently feared to be able to strongarm municipal leaders into feigning their support. But there would be an obvious downside as well: surely municipal politicians can't be happy to feel compelled to bow to the will of a premier even when he's announcing his intention to break promises to them. And that means that public shows of support for Wall may well be coupled with behind-the-scenes efforts to replace him - if municipal leaders see an opportunity to do so.

Needless to say, that's where both the risks and the opportunities for the NDP come in. It's of course a bad sign for now if municipal leaders see themselves as being under Wall's thumb to the point where they need to prove their fealty even while being told the government won't follow through on its commitments. And a significant part of the NDP's work in reaching out to will presumably have to involve demonstrating that efforts to work against Wall in an election either won't fail or won't be punished.

But the more the Sask Party keeps a lid on municipal anger at its government, the more pressure will build up out of its view. And if the NDP can combine a strong vision for municipalities with a realistic prospect of toppling Wall in 2011, then all the municipal frustration that's now being suppressed may serve as a major opportunity for the NDP to turn the political tide.