On protest initiatives

In case anybody thought the HST was finished as an issue, a couple of recent developments have helped to push the Harper-funded tax hike on individual consumers back into the headlines. But it's worth noting that the effort which may seem more quixotic at first glance is easily the one with the best chance of changing the direction of the province involved.

In B.C., the big news is that the HST may become the first citizen-driven issue ever to be voted on in a province-wide referendum if HST opponents can gather enough signatures before April 6 on a petition initiated by Bill Vander Zalm. And it's true as Jeff notes that the number of signatures which needs to be gathered in support of a referendum vote will make for a daunting task.

But the requirement for 10% of the electors in each riding seems somewhat less problematic when one remembers that the public is generally 80% opposed to the HST to start with - meaning that there's a large pool of discontent to tap into, as well as a larger pool of citizens with reason to work toward the cause than would normally be the case for any issue up for political debate. And based on those polling numbers, there can't be much room for doubt that the No HST side will be the heavy favourite in any referendum that follows - which can only help efforts to get individuals working toward the cause.

Moreover, the petition drive may well serve as a serious warning to the Campbell government even if it falls short of the 10% standard in a few ridings. So far, Campbell has generally tried to ignore opposition through polls, rallies, Facebook groups and the like - which has been easy enough to do given the lack of a direct connection between those groups and electoral lists.

But Liberal MLAs who see voters representing more than their margin of victory putting pen to paper to oppose the HST may have reason to think twice about their willingness to go along with the imposition of the tax. Which means that the indirect effects of the petition drive may be able to turn the tide even if the direct ones don't turn out as planned.

Meanwhile, the latest news out of Ontario seems to signal that there's far less chance of the HST being repealed or even altered there. And that's not just because the NDP came in only a close second in the Toronto Centre by-election where the HST was a key issue in its effort to topple the McGuinty Libs.

Instead, the biggest problem in Ontario is that public debate seems to have turned toward the concept of reducing a blended tax rather than deciding whether or not to implement it at all. Which looks to be a mistake since (as I've pointed out before) the agreement signed between the federal and provincial governments actually requires the province to keep the HST rate at its planned 13% until at least 2012.

As a result, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business or anybody else looking for a reduced HST rate doesn't just have to convince the McGuinty government to back off of its plans, but also has to lobby the Harper government to allow the change. But if any change in the rate will involve effectively shredding the deal signed by Deficit Jim Flaherty and Dwight Duncan, then there's little reason to aim low in merely seeking a reduced rate (and thereby alienating those who oppose the tax altogether), rather than working to stop the implementation of the HST as a whole.

In sum, then, the more ambitious effort in B.C. looks to be the one with a significantly better chance of actually putting the brakes on the government's HST plans. And it'll be a fascinating few months as the petition drive develops.