On democratic decisions

Today looks to be a watershed moment for the future of the B.C. NDP, as its provincial council determines whether to follow a recommendation to disqualify Anjali Appadurai from its leadership race - and in the process effective disenfranchise the entire membership in favour of a coronation. 

But it's worth noting that the issue isn't an entirely new one. And the recommendation in the B.C. campaign seems to be applying drastically different standards and results than what Saskatchewan experienced in relatively recent memory. 

By way of background, in the 2009 Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign, a volunteer on behalf of Dwain Lingenfelter's campaign submitted and paid for 1100 membership applications in the names of members of two Saskatchewan First Nations without their knowledge or consent. (The volunteer would end up pleading guilty to the criminal charge of attempting to utter forged documents.) 

Lingenfelter's campaign manager had approved of payment for the memberships - without knowing they were being submitted without the putative members' knowledge, but also without following up to determine whether there was any financial need to justify the mass payment of membership fees. And when the mass signups without consent were discovered, both the campaign and the party had to determine how to respond. 

For Lingenfelter's part, he treated the matter as being one of an "overexuberant volunteer", while not imposing public consequences on the campaign manager or anybody else. 

The Saskatchewan NDP's response was to cancel the memberships that had been falsely submitted, and to commission an investigative report into how the problem arose and how to prevent it from happening again. And while there were some calls for Lingenfelter to withdraw from the race voluntarily, I don't recall any serious possibility that he would be disqualified, either for the initial violation or for his reaction. (Indeed, my view at the time was that it was best for him to remain in the race and let members decide how his handling of the issue weighed in evaluating his suitability as a leader.) 

Comparing that situation to the one now facing the B.C. NDP, there looks to be little reason why a more severe penalty would result in Appadurai's case. Any issue about the validity of new memberships would result solely from potential regulatory non-compliance in reaching people who wanted to become members, not outright forgery to bring people in unwittingly. The investigation was able to contact questioned members at a level of detail which allowed for the flagging of specific memberships based on existing membership in another party (if one presumes that should itself result in cancellation). And there isn't an obvious difference in Appadurai's response as compared to Lingenfelter's: both acknowledged some wrongdoing, while minimizing how it would be characterized and declining to punish members of their own campaign for less-than-perfect oversight. 

That leaves a strong perception that the difference in treatment arises largely from the question of deviation from expectations. Lingenfelter was the heavy favourite entering the campaign, meaning that his disqualification might have been seen as producing an unexpected result. And conversely, Appadurai's campaign is under particular scrutiny due to the perception that she might well have signed up enough members to change the previously-anticipated outcome. 

Hopefully it goes without saying that campaign rules shouldn't be made and applied with the goal of channeling the results toward predetermined outcomes. And if the B.C. NDP decides it would rather deny members any vote than find a mechanism to cancel only questionable memberships, that figures to have far-reaching effects within the party and beyond as to whether people see democratic change as a meaningful possibility. 

#SKNDPLDR Roundup

A brief roundup of news and coverage from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign as Sunday's convention approaches.

- There's been some more media coverage at a high level, including Adam Hunter offering an overview of the campaign; Global News interviewing Harvey; CKRM profiling both candidates; and Katia St. Jean offering profiles in French. 

- Meanwhile, those looking for somewhat deeper dives with the candidates will find them from Lenore Swystun's Civically Speaking, including an interview with Harvey going into her experience of racial divisions in Saskatchewan, and one with Beck with Beck which includes some discussion of her recognition of the effects of inequality and poverty based on her family's history. 

- Finally, the last interim financial disclosure statement before the vote has been released (if not reported on). And it looks to rule out any prospect of a shift in the race behind the scenes, as Beck raised roughly $13,000 in May to Harvey's approximately $2,500. 

For those who haven't yet voted, the deadline to do so is Sunday at 3 PM. And we'll find out shortly thereafter who will lead the NDP into the next election. 

#SKNDPLDR: On Traps

The final official debate of the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign was the first I had the opportunity to see, and I'd hoped that it would result in some meaningful and constructive contrast. But instead, the debate and its aftermath looked largely to push both candidates toward the key traps for their respective campaigns.

For Carla Beck, that trap was the tendency to retreat constantly into tiresome talking points and vague generalities. 

Beck was obviously comfortable with the debate stage, and appears to have stuck with the plan she brought to the debate. But the nature of that plan resulted in a frustrating experience for anybody hoping to find out much about what Beck would be interested in pursuing as leader. 

On the few occasions when she chose to address issues with any substance (normally only where that meant critiquing specific government policies), observers could see a hint of her capacity to challenge Scott Moe. 

But the bulk of the time, no matter how obvious the opportunity or need to offer some meaningful content, her responses led back to the "meet people where they're at" catchphrase which offers zero useful information - other than that she's more interested in being everything to everyone than putting forward a vision. That might seem like sound strategy as the favourite in a leadership campaign, but it stands to set Beck off on exactly the wrong course as the spotlight grows brighter and both party members and the general public get to know her better.

Unfortunately, Kaitlyn Harvey didn't match Beck's comfort with the format, struggling to fit answers into time limits and structure her answers even on friendly issues. (Of course, it didn't help that a few of the questions themselves were framed in ways that played far more to Beck's positioning than to Harvey's.)

That need for more focus was then exacerbated by Harvey's comments portraying herself as a target and linking the campaign back to the party's treatment of Ryan Meili. Which isn't to say those can't be fair areas of concern - but for a candidate trying desperately to get party members to focus on substantive issues, they serve primarily as distractions which make it hard for her policy message to get through. 

The end result was thus likely to strengthen Beck's position for all the wrong reasons. Voters open to considering both candidates may have seen enough inexperience to rule out Harvey, even as Beck did little to earn their confidence.

Once again, what happens from this point forward may well be academic: many votes have already been cast, and nothing has changed the basic dynamics of the campaign. But it is still worth watching and hoping the candidates will be able to extricate themselves from where they've ended up so far in the informal forums and convention to come.

#SKNDPLDR Roundup

Saskatchewan's NDP leadership race continues toward convention day on the 26th. And it's starting to get somewhat more attention outside of core party circles - though it's unfortunately too late for newly-interested people to sign up and vote. So let's take a quick look at the latest. 

- Tonight is the final leadership forum, with options to view in person or online. And for those concerned about ensuring there are events covering a range of prospective voters, there will be another Saskatoon forum on the 15th (the second organized by the Saskatoon Metro group), followed by one from the Southwest Region on the 20th. 

- Found in an earlier report on the campaign are these membership numbers from the party's president Sheila Whelan:

Since the launch of the leadership race, Whelan said the party signed up about 2,400 new members over the past two months for a total of 7,295.

During the contest between Meili and Trent Wotherspoon in 2018, the NDP had 13,414 members eligible to vote.

Note that the membership totals had similarly been in the 11,000-13,000 range for the party's other leadership campaigns since 2009. But it will be worth watching whether the lower number also reflects a more committed core of voters - which could lead to a countervailing increase in the percentage of people who end up casting a ballot (which has normally been around 80%). 

- Kaitlin Harvey has updated her platform with additional issues (presumably based at least in part on the policy survey which is no longer open), 

- Finally, Murray Mandryk has offered profiles of each of Carla Beck and Kaitlyn Harvey. And Global News interviewed Beck about her run. 

#SKNDPLDR Candidate Profile - Carla Beck

On paper, Carla Beck's track record covers nearly every group the NDP should be looking to attract into its fold. She's a well-respected veteran member of the Legislature, with prior experience as a school board trustee who can thus point to a history of collaborative government. And she can combine rural roots with a political base in one of the party's most important urban strongholds. 

Moreover, she was able to get organized from the outset of the NDP's leadership campaign, resulting in only one challenger entering the field. And it's no surprise that a front-running campaign has been able to assemble endorsements from within any group a leadership hopeful could want to attract - giving nearly any type of voter some validation to accept her as an option.

All of those factors mean that Beck has been in the driver's seat of the campaign from day one, and still looks like an overwhelming favourite to win the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership. But there are still a couple of crucial questions which are making her campaign positively painful for some of us to watch. 

The most basic question has been how Beck's experience and skill would translate to being the face of the party on a provincial level. And on that point, there don't look to be any strong answers in either direction: her work speaking to voters may not be the most comfortable yet, but there's no reason to think she isn't up for the job in an election campaign. 

More problematically, there's been uncertainty as to Beck's decision-making process in deciding what the NDP's messages and priorities should be. And while that may not affect the outcome of the leadership race, it raises alarming prospects for the party if Beck does cruise to victory. 

From the moment Beck's campaign launched in an oil and gas supplier's business, there's been reason for concern from the beginning that she's accepted a dangerous interpretation of the results of the 2020 provincial election. 

In that respect, it's worth another reminder that the Saskatchewan Party's spin about the NDP's platform has never borne even a remote resemblance to reality, particularly as it involves the oil and gas sector in the province. 

Under the leader regularly branded by the Moe government (and its media allies and puppets) as being opposed to oil-sector jobs, the NDP explicitly said (PDF) the "(o)il and gas is an will remain a strong pillar of our economy", announcing that its ambition was limited to "chang(ing) our energy mix" by moving to renewable and non-emitting electricity. And the NDP never put together the type of climate plan which would actually affect the fossil fuel sector's carbon pollution - a point which plenty of people within the party recognized as a weakness before the campaign. (After all, it's a lot easier for opposition spin about your positions to stick when you don't have a clear answer as to what you actually have planned.)

One could hardly imagine a more self-destructive choice for a political party than to fully buy into opponents' framing of the political debate. But Beck (if hardly alone) seems to have accepted the view that resistance to the complete domination of Saskatchewan's political scene by the oil sector is futile - and that there's nothing to be done other than to supplicate the party to its wishes, rather than hammering its own message about the difference in interests between oil workers and the billionaires simultaneously trying to exploit and eliminate them. 

It's from that starting point that subsequent events have looked particularly worrisome - including an oil show photo-op which did little but validate the fossil fuel barons who already have multiple fully-owned political parties at their disposal, and a distinct turn toward the austerian in answering questions as to whether there's any room to increase public revenue with the claim that it's possible to fund the change Saskatchewan needs merely by finding efficiencies (among other rhetoric that would more comfortably be found coming from the CTF than the NDP). 

Of course, there's no lack of outside voices who have been telling the NDP constantly that what it needs is to brand itself as the Sask Party Orange. But that's always been at best a dubious proposition even from the standpoint of trying to make the case for change - and a downright destructive one for anybody who actually wants to accomplish anything for the province's people in the process. And if Beck continues with that mindset, the risk isn't limited to the outcome of the leadership campaign, but extends to the prospect that people will conclude the NDP has given up on providing a meaningful progressive alternative. 

#SKNDPLDR Candidate Profile - Kaitlyn Harvey

The flip side of Carla Beck's position as the ultra-establishment candidate - backed by most of the NDP's existing organizational structure, and using that position to play to those with the most wealth and power within the province - has been an obvious opening for an outsider candidate. And Kaitlyn Harvey has taken up that mantle with at least some success so far.

It helps that Harvey has a solid background for her campaign message, raising the prospect of representation for long-neglected groups (including a personal stake in the Saskatchewan Party's politics of neglect) combined with a strong professional background which leaves no room for question as to her credentials. 

Unfortunately, Harvey started the campaign at a severe disadvantage in name recognition and internal support, and it's doubtful that she'll be able to close the gap in a way that will affect the outcome of the campaign. And that isn't entirely attributable to the structure of the campaign. 

Even for some period of time after she entered the race, Harvey's campaign had little apparent public impact, including the glaring lack of public endorsements within the province until recently. While she's now starting to hold frequent events and receive visible shows of support, there looks to be too small a time frame in which to transition from convincing her natural core of activists to reaching the full breadth of the party membership - particularly when the voting window is already open.

In addition, there's also some reason for question whether Harvey's choice of messaging is right for an effort to convince voters to support an insurgent alternative. 

From the standpoint of a completely neutral, dispassionate observer, a mindset of risk assessment and mitigation would represent a highly valuable asset in the leader of a government. But there's precious little evidence that the message will resonate with anybody who needs to be convinced of the need for change.

Instead, there's inevitably at least some gap between what makes for the most responsible decision-making in power, and what will convince voters to offer their support. On that front, Harvey's message seems to have all the possible down-sides of Ryan Meili's evidence-based approach (which precluded definitive statements about possibilities which seemed to merit study rather than immediate promises), without the overarching positive vision of a "healthy society" as the end goal to be pursued. And her presentation in person tends toward a higher level of frustration (and lower level of optimism) than would seem ideal for a candidate whose success depends on the promise of something better. 

That said, Harvey is doing plenty both to raise questions which deserve discussion within the leadership campaign, and to boost her own profile as somebody who can shape the direction of the NDP and the province. And even the party stalwarts who have thrown in their lot with Beck would do well to ensure that Harvey and her critiques play a major role in the NDP's future. 

#SKNDPLDR Roundup

The Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign has followed a highly unusual path, with very little official activity (and only a few unofficial events and announcements) preceding last month's membership deadline. And it's only in the last week or so that the pace has begun to pick up - even as members have already received their ballots and voting instructions, with social media now showing plenty of ballots already being cast. 

That combination of factors again looks to strongly favour the front-runner, and there's still little indication that Carla Beck will face any suspense in her campaign. But for those interested in what's still developing...

- While there have been a few candidate meetings conducted by other organizers, the first official leadership forum is scheduled to take place in Moose Jaw tonight, with three more to follow in the weeks ahead. As Phil Tank notes, this will be the first chance to see whether there will be much contrast between the candidates within the campaign - and there are some seemingly important difference in the candidates' policies and point of emphasis if they look to discuss them.  

- It took until last week for Kaitlin Harvey to unveil her first caucus endorsement (from Jennifer Bowes), clearing at least one of the obvious hurdles in establishing support within the party. She  followed that up this week by declaring her intention to run to succeed Ryan Meili in Saskatoon Meewasin, signaling that there may be no issue as to concerns about a leader outside of caucus. 

- Harvey is also making a direct appeal for policy input on her leadership site, which offers at least a nod toward a more participatory model for her campaign. But it also raises the concern of her platform being a moving target even as votes are being cast.

- Meanwhile, Beck has continued to announce significant endorsements, including prominent elected officials like Doyle Vermette and Eric Cline, along with a bevy of activists and substantial labour support. But aside from that, Beck's activity has mostly been in her capacity as an MLA rather than aimed at the leadership campaign. 

- And finally, it's possible to get some information about the standing of the campaigns from their financial disclosures - which unsurprisingly feature Beck well ahead by the end of the last reporting period in April, with over $57,000 in donations compared to just under $11,000 for Harvey. 

For now, we'll look to see how the candidates compare in the leadership forums - as well as who has both joined the voter pool, and waited to decide as the campaign continues. 

#SKNDPLDR: Membership Deadline

I'll be posting more about the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race in the days to come, including putting together candidate profiles and updating my campaign reference page.

For those interested in having a say, though, today is the last day to buy or renew a membership in order to have a say. So for those looking to influence the future course of the NDP and the province, now is the time to get involved. 

#SKNDPLDR Roundup

So far, the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign has been awfully quiet. And with a membership deadline looming for anybody who wants to be able to vote in the leadership election, time is running out for anybody looking to attract support from outside the party's existing membership base.

While it remains to be seen whether she'll success, Kaitlyn Harvey has taken a couple of steps which should pique some interest: announcing the endorsement of Seth Klein as one of the country's prominent voices for climate action, and unveiling a platform based on principles of sustainability and harm prevention, as well as a far more honest assessment of the costs of maintaining the status quo. 

There's some obvious potential for those messages both in establishing Harvey's bona fides within the climate justice movement, and for the party's future path as a part of that movement. But time is running short to convert that potential into memberships and votes. 

Meanwhile, Carla Beck's campaign has demurred from releasing a detailed platform. Instead, she's offered a list of priorities with a few policy proposals, along with an explanation for not going into much more detail than that. (And there's actually another reasonable argument on that point which she doesn't address, which is the effort underway to improve the NDP's internal policy development.) 

Not surprisingly, Beck has also added to her list of endorsements - though it's hard to see those as a novel development in a race where she's had establishment support lined up behind her from day one. 

We'll find out fairly soon whether there are any surprises in the membership numbers which may affect the balance of the race. In the meantime, though, a quiet campaign looks to favour Beck as the default favourite. 

Saskatchewan NDP Leadership 2022 Reference Page

A one-stop source for general information about the 2022 Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign.

General Information
Saskatchewan NDP Constitution 

Saskatchewan NDP Membership

Candidate Information

Candidate	Website	Twitter	Facebook	Profile
Carla Beck	CarlaForLeader.ca	@CarlaBeckSK	Carla Beck
Kaitlyn Harvey	ChangeStartsHere.ca	@KaitlynHarveySK	Kaitlyn Harvey

Upcoming Dates

May 6: Candidate Entry Deadline

May 13: Membership Deadline

June 26: Leadership Convention

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Twitter: #skndpldr

On negative reinforcement

While there have been some aspects of the Saskatchewan NDP's post-election review (PDF) which involved conflicting currents within the party, one of the few possibilities which seems to have been generally embraced is the development of a 24/7/365 campaign to counter the constant barrage of Saskatchewan Party spin.

That's well and good as a means of supporting messages worth sending. But if recent events make anything clear, it's that having a communications apparatus doesn't help much if you're not willing to use it to call out the government.

The last few weeks have seen a barrage of jaw-dropping positions and announcements from the Moe government - and far too much willingness from the official opposition to elect not to challenge them.

When the Saskatchewan Party announced that all kinds of regulatory enforcement were being assembled into a single police force (with obvious potential for abuse), the NDP's response was to raise no objection other than to complain that Legislative security shouldn't be included. (Presumably this would be the Murray Mandryk appeasement measure, under the false assumption that anything the NDP does will ever cause the province's corporate media pundit class to do anything other than attack it at every opportunity.) And this after the previous police force was the subject of a massive scandal involving the purchase of inappropriate and unnecessary firearms.

When the federal government made the already-sufficient decision that carbon capture and storage would receive gobs of public money as long as the captured emissions weren't used to produce more oil, the public response was to echo the fossil fuel industry's demand that it be subsidized to promote carbon pollution.

And most recently, the reaction to Scott Moe's repetition of blatantly false conservative talking points about a nonexistent truck tax has been...to take it at face value and offer meek agreement.

Each of those cases offered a prime opportunity to lay the groundwork for the next election campaign - establishing points of distinction from, and criticism of, a government which is both destructive and untrustworthy. But in each case, the current choice was instead to use whatever opportunity the NDP has to project its voice publicly to reinforce Saskatchewan Party frameworks and talking points.

Even applying the best possible excuse about trying not to prefer one set of voices within the party over another during a leadership campaign, that represents a failure both to hold an incompetent government to account, and to prime the public for any message that change is necessary. And the last thing an outgunned party can afford to do is spend its limited resources shooting itself in the foot.

[Edit: fixed typo.]

#SKNDPLDR22 - The Race is On

I've previously noted the danger that the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign - however unnecessary it should have been to begin with - might be particularly damaging to the party if it failed to produce some meaningful challenge to Carla Beck as the first entrant and front-runner. 

From that standpoint, it's great news that Kaitlyn Harvey is entering the race - and doubly so for the prospect that her entrance will highlight some of the most important issues which have been conspicuously absent both in Beck's campaign so far, and in the NDP's recent efforts in opposition. 

Just as Beck's campaign has focused on personality and endorsements rather than policy, Harvey's launch was exceedingly light on any specific policy proposals. But it may be understandable if the leadership campaign includes less policy specifics than usual in a context where the party's general policy-making apparatus is being revamped as a result of its post-election review. 

What Harvey has been willing to put front and centre, however, is her advocacy for climate justice and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples. Both reflect issues which should be touchstones for progressive activists and voters. But both have all too frequently been treated as taboo topics and obstacles to support rather than points of priority in the party's political decision-making. (And unfortunately, the otherwise justifiable focus on a 24/7/365 campaign has thus far led the party toward even more risk aversion and focus on headlines and news cycles, rather than any focus building deeper awareness and support on issues of principle.)

Presuming her campaign themes reflect that background, Harvey should thus at the very least ensure that the most important questions facing both the NDP and the province are subject to some meaningful thought in the course of the leadership race. And I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the opportunity to organize for climate justice through the leadership campaign helps propel Harvey to a far stronger result than would be expected based on the candidates' public profiles to date. 

#SKNDPLDR 2022 Overview - No Certainty, or No Contest?

I've posted previously about the loss for party and province that is Ryan Meili's resignation from the leadership of Saskatchewan's NDP. And as I'll discuss in this and posts to come, that factor will cast a long shadow over the new leadership campaign and beyond.

But with Meili stepping down - and with multiple top-tier candidates having ruled out runs or even declined movements to draft them into the race - the main question now is whether the leadership will be contested seriously (or at all).

Anybody else considering entering the race will need to have a plan to compete against a strong frontrunner. Carla Beck has started the campaign by assembling substantial support both within the current caucus and among prominent members. And she easily meets a basic checklist for the leadership position as a well-liked and effective MLA who can boast strong connections throughout the party, an urban base and rural roots, and the appealing prospect of finally breaking the gender barrier for the NDP's permanent leadership.

But then, there's the reminder of the shoes the new leader will have to fill:

I'll let this speak for itself. pic.twitter.com/3dxxqiMggC

— Steve Boots (@steve_boots) March 10, 2022

For all Beck's merits, it's a high bar for her - or anybody else - to approach Meili's principled opposition, especially when it comes to the fundamental building blocks of a healthy society. And it's unlikely we'll see Beck tested much under the type of safe, low-content campaign which she's run so far - and which she'll have every incentive to continue running as long as there isn't any serious competition. 

I'd thus think even Beck's own supporters would recognize the value in ensuring there's a contest rather than an acclamation. But who can plausibly make that happen?

Most obviously, the past two leadership campaigns have been marked by the success of Saskatoon MLAs against Regina competitors. And that may be in part due to a structural advantage for somebody who starts out with greater name recognition in Saskatchewan's largest city, while also spending enough time in Regina during legislative sessions to make connections. 

With Betty Nippi-Albright having already (if unfortunately) ruled out a run, that still leaves a few intriguing possibilities. I'd view an environmentally-focused campaign from Erika Ritchie as a particularly desirable counterweight to the unfortunate view of some within the party that the next leader should be even more deferential to the oil sector than is currently the normal practice. But any of Ritchie, Jennifer Bowes, Vicki Mowat or Matt Love could run a competitive campaign while offering a voice to people who want to expand the range of possibilities for the party. 

In contrast, any candidate running a campaign based primarily in Regina figures to face an uphill battle due to both Beck's own prominence locally, and the immediate boost to her campaign provided by much of the city's NDP establishment. With the stress on parents of younger children being a major them in both how the campaign was precipitated and who's ruled out a run so far, it may be too much to hope for Meara Conway to throw her hat in the ring - and it's hard to see who outside of caucus would pose much of a challenge. 

Outside of geographic considerations, there's also the question of policy positioning. Beck herself is roughly in the middle of the road within the NDP, and it's hard to see much of a push coming from the neoliberal centre in the absence of a clear path to power. But the progressive wing which helped build behind Meili will surely be looking for somebody to challenge Beck while also building a profile for battles to come. 

There's also the prospect of some generational considerations coming into play. With the party apparatus largely in the hands of an older generation and Beck having taken on the status of the establishment candidate, there's a prospect that younger supporters and voters might work on providing an alternative while carving out their own places within the party. 

Of course, all the arguments for a competitor run into the realities of a campaign in which Beck already has a head start - and where there will be little time in which to try to sign up new members to make up the gap. 

For now, the above leaves more questions than answers as to who else might join the race. But the hope for now has to be that the election of a new leader doesn't devolve into an acclamation - and that both Beck and the party are strengthened for it regardless of how the campaign turns out.

On unhealthy outcomes

Not surprisingly, Ryan Meili's announcement that he'll be stepping down as leader of Saskatchewan's NDP comes as a major disappointment.

To be clear, the decision is understandable both from a personal standpoint given the demands placed on a party leader (particularly with a young family living in Saskatoon), and a political standpoint in light of the backbiting Meili has all too often faced from within the NDP.

But as many of us involved in the party's election review process pointed out, much of the NDP's difficulty in finding its footing over the past decade-plus has been traceable to a complete lack of continuity in leadership. And the election review itself was based on the hope that for once, it would be possible to work on organizational growth and renewal without putting party-building on hold to fight as to who would be charting the party's course.

Sadly, that hope is now gone. Instead, we'll find ourselves at the midway point between provincial elections before choosing another leader, and then once again have to scramble to get a political machine in working order as the election approaches. And this time, that's the result of a self-inflicted wound. 

Meanwhile, from the standpoint of the province as a whole, Meili's message in resigning seems to be misplaced. 

Scott Moe's most recent shift in themes - treating the pandemic as over and any talk of further public health protection as divisive - has never represented anything short of sociopathic dishonesty. There's little meaningful evidence that anything more than a small fraction of the public actually wants to sacrifice public health on the altar of "freedumb!"; there's even less evidence that the results of doing so will be anything but avoidable deaths and severe disabilities, particularly for vulnerable populations including young children and immunocompromised people.

Now, I'd expect Meili will keep up the fight to keep people protected in his continued role as interim leader. But the choice to reinforce the "pandemic is ending!" theme - combined with the fact that Meili will be ceding his pary's leadership - only ensures Moe will perceive no possible political cost to giving full expression to his utter contempt for the lives of his constituents. And political risk of course been the only factor that's ever driven him to deviate from the hardest of hard-right governance.

That imbalance in political will in the face of a COVID wave cresting (and a more dangerous one developing) is particularly jarring in contrast to the start of the pandemic, which sadly looks in retrospect like the highlight of Meili's leadership. While Moe slammed the door on any consultation and his party laughed about COVID-19, Meili's response was simply to call publicly for basic steps to protect people's health - and out of self-preservation if nothing else, Moe fell into a pattern of implementing most of Meili's proposals in a matter of days. 

Now, Moe has emerged emboldened in his determination to treat COVID with absolute denial and disdain. And however understandable the motivations for Meili's choice, it's hard to see the result as anything but yet another blow to Saskatchewan's political and social health.

Better late than never

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the running joke in Saskatchewan politics was that whatever NDP leader Ryan Meili pushed for, Scott Moe's Saskatchewan Party government could be counted on to implement three days later.

This of course came after Moe's party had laughed at the concept of both the idea of a pandemic generally, and any attempt at cooperation in responding to it. So it hardly reflects any great measure of respect for the wisdom of an opposition leader operating in an area of professional expertise. 

But nearly two years later, even the "belatedly and grudgingly follow good advice" level of consideration for non-government voices has come to be nothing more than a halcyon memory. 

It took only a little over a month for Moe to start focusing on undoing public health measures rather than implementing them. And in the time since, he's constantly framed Saskatchewan's COVID response in terms more associated with anti-regulation rhetoric than public health - with the effect of legitimizing the people trying to undermine any response at all in the face of all scientific evidence and compassion for their fellow human beings, while also creating substantial confusion for anybody expecting a consistent or coherent message from a government in a time of crisis.

And tragically, political messaging designed to drive home points in the short term has proven to have grave longer-term implications. 

A campaign promise never to return to lockdown not only signaled Moe's refusal to accept that public health could come first under any circumstances, but also served as a disincentive against the implementation of even more modest steps no matter how desperately they were needed. 

And more recently, the choice to spent the fall of this year politicizing and attacking the concept of even vaccine mandates as recommended by medical health officers has taken one obvious and important mechanism to protect against the spread of a new variant off the table. 

Now, expectations for Moe seem to have plummeted to the point that even making booster shots available to the all-too-small share of adults who want them (with little apparent planning to make that work logistically) is being treated as grounds for worship - even when paired with Moe's willingness to play footsie with anti-vaxxers while refusing to listen to health care providers and experts, along with the use of precisely zero public health measures while other provinces approach the impending wave on a wartime footing. 

For Moe and the Saskatchewan Party, political battles still look to be the only consideration at play - resulting in his refusing to follow the recommendations of better-informed people (including Meili) under any circumstances. And it doesn't figure to be long before another wave of Saskatchewan citizens pays the ultimate price. 

Saturday Afternoon Links

Assorted content for your weekend reading.

- Emma Jackson highlights why we shouldn't treat carbon pricing as anything more than a tiny piece of a plan to avert a climate breakdown. Hadrian Metrins-Kirkwood writes about the importance of passing an ambitious Just Transition Act into law at the federal leve. And Noah Smith discusses how the U.S. (and other wealthier countries) can help to lead the technological side of a just transition, while Lara Fominoff reports on Ryan Meili's call to create green jobs and technology in Saskatchewan. 

- Meanwhile, Oliver Milman reports on the oil companies who have collected massive amounts of public subsidies linked to COVID relief while still laying off workers. And Loren Steffy discusses how abandoned oil infrastructure is posing an environmental and economic menace in Texas just like in Canada's petroprovinces. 

- Rebecca Solnit writes about the air pollution epidemic which kills millions every year - but which is largely ignored due to the limited wealth and power of the people who suffer from it.

- Yasmine Ghania reports on the passage through committee of a bill to effectively implement a global treaty against plastic waste - with the Libs filibustering and voting it against based on their desire to include a loophole allowing waste to be exported through the U.S.

- Finally, Tess McClure reports on New Zealand's new steps to increase taxes on the rich and enact a liveable minimum wage.

Friday Morning Links

Assorted content to end your week.

- Shannon Vanraes reports that Manitoba has become the latest jurisdiction reduced to triaging patients in their cars due to a lack of resources to respond to the coronavirus. Mickey Djuric reports on new modeling showing that Saskatchewan is on the verge of a severe COVID-19 outbreak, even as Paul Merriman plans to do nothing until it's too late to improve matters. But it's worth noting - as already pointed out - that even the best-case scenario (involving cases leveling off at their current number) would need to have involved substantial action a month ago.

- Zak Vescera reports on Alex Wong's observation that we need immediate action to save lives. And the Saskatchewan NDP is calling for a three-week "circuit breaker" of non-essential services to prevent both catastrophic spread and more severe lockdowns later on. 

- Owen Jones argues that since any COVID-19 vaccine will be the result of publicly-funded research for the benefit of all humanity, it makes no sense to hand over patents rights allowing big pharma to limit access to it.

- Janyce McGregor and Peter Zimonjic reports on the federal NDP's push for a national pharmacare program. And while the Cons try to throw out jurisdictional arguments, it's worth noting how private health interests are lining up at the trough to turn health care needs into profits thanks to their Alberta cousins.

- Finally, Hadrian Metrins-Kirkwood writes that the Libs' much-ballyhooed climate change legislation doesn't actually promise to generate much other than a lot of paperwork, while Adam Radwanski likewise finds the bill wanting compared to its international counterparts. And Robert Devine argues that we can't count on the market to save us from the calamitous consequences of an impending climate breakdown.

On missed opportunities

There has been plenty of commentary and analysis about the results of Saskatchewan's provincial election - including some discussion on the theme of an overly risk-averse NDP campaign. But I'll follow up with one specific example of what may have been missing from the party's message.

One of the key ideas promoted by Ryan Meili over nearly a decade as a leadership candidate and public figure has been the concept of SaskPharm, giving effect to the familiar and already-mooted idea that there should be public ownership of a supplier capable of meeting the need for medicine where the private sector fails to deliver (whether within reasonable price parameters or at all). 

And as recently as June of this year, the NDP's caucus included the concept in its COVID recovery plan (PDF). But come election time, the NDP's platform omitted any mention of SaskPharm. 

Unfortunately, that fit into a broader pattern of only tinkering around the edges when it came to economic issues. 

The NDP was willing to direct substantial amounts of money toward an SGI rebate and the removal of the PST on construction labour. And it planned to reinstate a number of lost entities such as STC, and industries such as the film sector. But very little in its economic message even hinted at any plans beyond restoring the province to its economic mix circa 2007.

That then caused problems in responding to the Saskatchewan Party's constant demand of slavish devotion to the oil sector. When it came time to answer as to what sources of jobs and economic development might be available for Saskatchewan once the rest of the planet wised up to the imperative to shift away from fossil fuels, the NDP unfortunately left ready-made possibilities off the table. And that made it far too easy for voters to accept they should stay on an unsustainable path, for lack of any specifics as to what alternatives might be available.

What's worse, the omission of SaskPharm from the election came at a time when we've become acutely aware of the dangers of relying on foreign and corporate suppliers for the medication and other supplies we need to stay healthy in the midst of a pandemic.

It's not clear that the next election will offer quite the same natural intersection between an immediate need, and an already-developed policy proposal which can serve as the focal point for Saskatchewan's economic development. But I'd argue that the NDP needs to put in the effort laying the groundwork for an economic vision which offers a clear choice of something better - lest voters wrongly believe their only option is more of the same.

On asymmetrical warfare

In the wake of this week's U.S. elections - featuring a closer-than-expected contest for the presidency, and down-ballot results which look to disappointingly leave substantial power in Republican hands - there's been an outpouring of commentary criticizing the money that was put into campaigns which ultimately lost.

If there's a lesson we can draw from a broader set of political results, though, it's about the need for all-of-the-above politics - rather than an assumption that a single form of winning support can be counted on to make up for a lack of others.

In the U.S., the division between the air war and the ground war was stark. In the presidential race as well as major congressional battles, Democrats were able to pour loads of money into ads. 

But Biden's initial reluctance to pursue door-knocking at all, combined with a lack of effort to reach communities where it appears particularly important to win and turn out support, looks to have been a major factor behind some of the most disappointing results. And the assumption that text alerts and phoning would make up for a lack of in-person contact looks to have been thoroughly flawed.

That's particularly so since the Democrats' greatest successes look to have come in areas where ad blitzes from above (boosting voters' motivation) were paired with grassroots canvassing (which converted that motivation into turnout).

It appears that a similar dynamic also may have applied in Saskatchewan's provincial election - though the problem for the NDP arose on the former front.

Here, the prospect of an opportunistic snap spring election call in the midst of a pandemic always seemed particularly egregious given the Saskatchewan Party's reserves of corporate donations. The prospect of the government locking everybody indoors, then using its cash reserves to drown out all competing voices through electronic media, looked like about the most unfair and self-serving starting point one could imagine.

The election eventually took place on schedule, and COVID receded somewhat over the summer. As a result, the opposition parties were eventually able to get out door-knocking - albeit with some restrictions which did make communication more difficult. And on election day, the NDP was in its familiar situation of being able to reach target voters with a thorough ground game in priority ridings. 

But by that point, the party was fishing in a depleted and uninterested pool. Large numbers of mail-in ballots and advance voters proved to be more the result of a shift in turnout rather than an increase. For citizens who had seen far more government messaging than contrasting perspectives in the course of the campaign (particularly with what should have been major news going unreported through mainstream outlets in that time), it figures to have been relatively easy to decide that the pandemic offered a valid excuse to stay home. And the result was that the NDP's support on election day fell well short of what the polls suggested.

In sum, neither an air-war approach without a well-thought-out plan to engage with voters in their communities, nor a strong ground game in the face of a massive advertising disadvantage, is likely to represent a recipe for victory. But by the same token, the answer isn't to criticize the people who have built up one or the other, but to ensure the causes we support have enough of both to succeed.

[Edit: fixed & added wording.]

Sunday Afternoon #skvotes Links

The latest from Saskatchewan's provincial election campaign as election day approaches tomorrow.

- A new poll shows the race tightening significantly, including with the NDP holding a significant lead in Regina. But in case anybody thought the coverage of polling would be equal depending on what's being found, this one is being reported accompanied by the Sask Party's spin - while the first public poll which was relatively close to its findings has apparently been disappeared entirely. 

- Meanwhile, Morgan Modjeski reports on the voters who are losing the ability to participate due to a lack of preparation for the continuing COVID-19 pandemic. 

- The Globe and Mail's editorial board offers its take on the election, with a notable perspective as to the relatively small differences in promises between the two main parties (though the assumptions and values behind the platforms still represent major differences).

- Jen Quesnel, Winter Fedyk and Tammy Robert offer their latest take on the campaign. And Robert also discusses the failings of both Scott Moe and the media to deal with the aftermath of his fatal vehicle collision, particularly as the family affected searches for answers.

- Finally, Doug Cuthand rightly argues that we need our political leaders to deal with the continued blight of racism in Saskatchewan.

Update: Another poll shows the race tightening. PressProgress points out the corporate elites and lobbyists funding the Sask Party. And Jason Hammond offers ten of the many reasons why the Sask Party shouldn't be kept in power.