Sunday, May 03, 2009

Leadership 2009 Week in Review - May 3

Last week, I offered my first assessment of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership candidates' chances of victory - and wondered whether much might happen to change the odds. Needless to say, though, the last week has offered plenty of indication that the direction of the race might be changing.

Whatever the outcome of the NDP's investigation into the allegations of improper membership lists coming from the Lingenfelter campaign, the issue seems likely to stop Link in his tracks.

Even in a best realistic case where only a few of the questioned memberships are pulled, the incident seriously undercuts the message of a campaign based on competence and inevitability. And at worst, if the problem goes beyond an isolated individual or two, the Lingenfelter campaign as a whole may end up operating under a cloud during the month when members will make up their minds as to who to support. Which may both shift top-line support in other directions, and cement Link's place at the bottom of the preferential ballot of those whose first-ballot support lies elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Lingenfelter's loss looks to be the other candidates' gain - turning an otherwise quiet week into a huge opportunity. And there may be one more prominent endorsement headed elsewhere as an immediate reaction to the membership list issue.

So with that in mind, here's the updated chart for now, with last week's estimated chances in parentheses.

Candidate 1st Ballot Win Final Ballot Final Ballot Win 4th on 1st Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter 30 (35) 52 (55) 18 (20) 0 (0) 48 (55)
Deb Higgins 5 (3) 32 (28) 21 (20) 5 (5) 26 (23)
Ryan Meili 3 (2) 34 (32) 20 (18) 10 (10) 23 (20)
Yens Pedersen 0 (0) 6 (5) 3 (2) 47 (45) 3 (2)

No comments:

Post a Comment