Leadership 2009 Week in Review - April 27

Following up on yesterday's series of Candidate Checkpoints, I'll take the prognostication up a notch and offer up my guesses as to the likelihood of the possible outcomes in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race. For those looking for a 538-style mathematical model, this is nothing of the sort - but it reflects my observations of what data is out there to assess candidate support.

I'll take a look at the following factors:

1st Ballot Win - the likelihood that a candidate will take 50%+ of the vote on the first ballot
Final Ballot - the likelihood that a candidate will appear on a final ballot after the first one
Final Ballot Win - the likelihood that a candidate will win on a ballot after the first one
4th on 1st - the likelihood that a candidate will be eliminated on the first ballot, shifting votes to that candidate's voters' next choice for the second ballot
Total Win - should be self-explanatory, the sum of a candidate's chances of winning on the first ballot and on a subsequent ballot

Note that for ease of comparison, the latter three columns will add up only to the likelihood that more than one ballot is required, since they don't figure to be relevant if the outcome is determined on the first ballot.

There's probably some room to toss in more guesswork as to the permutations and combinations possible on a second ballot as opposed to a third. But for now, it would seem to be largely the above factors that will determine the shape of the convention.

So without any further ado, my current projections as to the possible results of the leadership race:

Candidate	1st Ballot Win	Final Ballot	Final Ballot Win	4th on 1st	Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter	35	55	20	0	55
Deb Higgins	3	28	20	5	23
Ryan Meili	2	32	18	10	20
Yens Pedersen	0	5	2	45	2