The hope factor

I've previously discussed how the Cons' constant coalition talk may only serve to legitimize any coalition following the next federal election campaign. But it's worth noting as well what impact the talk should have on the campaign itself, even if the Libs thus far seem determined not to let it happen.

By way of comparison, it's worth remembering the mood of the opposition parties and their supporters around the time of the 2008 election campaign.

With Stephane Dion rejecting the possibility of a coalition even as his poll numbers tanked, with the Libs pulling back their national spending while putting in just enough effort to try to stave off the NDP, with Gilles Duceppe publicly stating that nobody but Stephen Harper could be prime minister after the election, the overall mood was broadly one of frustration and resignation. At best, the questions to be decided on election day seemed to involve whether the Cons would win a minority or a majority, and how the opposition parties would be positioned as against each other.

Needless to say, that range of outcomes didn't generate any great amount of hope that even the best election-day effort would produce much worth celebrating on the part of the opposition parties - while the Cons were energized by the prospect of pushing ahead to majority government status. And that combination of a resigned opposition and a galvanized Con majority push figures to have made the end results worse than they had to be.

Now, there's little reason to think that the next campaign will be any different if the opposition parties don't do more to positively portray the possibility of a coalition. Even with the Libs slightly above their historic lows of earlier this year, the normal campaign swing toward the Cons would leave little prospect that any one opposition party will be able to win a plurality of seats. So if that or worse is the standard for a change in government, then the Cons figure to once again enjoy an enthusiasm gap in their favour.

But what if the opposition parties run with the idea that a change in government is possible - or even inevitable - if the Cons fall short of majority status, with the election results then serving to define the relative power within a Lib/NDP coalition (supported by the Bloc only if need be)?

At that point, all opposition parties would have added reason to fight for every seat they can, with a particular focus on flipping Con seats into other parties' columns. There would be every reason to hope that a plausible election outcome could produce an end to the Harper regime, meaning that the campaign for each party could be based at least as much on the realistic prospect of a better government to follow as on frustration with the current one.

And it's not as if taking the step would substantially influence the Cons' enthusiasm level. The Cons have telegraphed that they'll be motivating their base by pitching the need for a majority to stop a coalition - so the only real question is whether the opposition will match that sense of urgency.

Of course, that's where the catch lies so far. The Libs' strategy of pretending that they alone are the opposition coalition might slightly increase the prospect of that actually becoming true. But it also provides ample reason for NDP, Bloc and Green supporters to be suspicious that the Libs will happily keep propping up a Harper minority as long as they have to in order to form the next government on their own. And the resulting need for the opposition parties to spend more time attacking each other only figures to add to the enthusiasm gap in giving the Cons their best possible shot at a majority.

In sum, then, it's ultimately Michael Ignatieff's call as to whether he wants to lead a cooperative effort to form an alternative governemnt, or whether he's willing to torpedo that effort based on a desire to stoke the Libs' belief that they're above their competitors. And internal pressure from the Libs will surely be a major factor in determining whether there's much to hope for next time Canada goes to the polls.