A couple of weeks back, I examined the role of endorsements in the federal NDP's leadership race. Now, I'll take a quick look at where the current fund-raising numbers and distribution stand - and how they figure to relate to the NDP's previous leadership campaigns.
The closest comparison to this campaign is of course the 2012 leadership race. There, the final fund-raising totals for the candidates who stayed in the race ranged from Niki Ashton's $86,806.70 (from 1,163 contributors) to Tom Mulcair's $522,788.00 (from 3,482 contributors). And the contributor numbers ranged from Ashton's 1,163 to Martin Singh's 7,965.
But of course, the final numbers weren't known when people actually voted. And there were some noteworthy changes over the home stretch of the campaign: Mulcair overtook Brian Topp as the top fund-raiser after trailing in the previous quarterly report, while Singh drastically increased his number of donors even while raising relatively little compared to the pre-convention numbers.
In general, total donations proved to be a strong indicator of voting support. (In contrast, donor numbers were far less reliable, with Singh's total serving as the obvious outlier.)
The connection between donations and votes was even stronger in the 2003 campaign: then, every candidate's vote share was within 1.5% of his or her fund-raising share. So there's certainly some precedent to suggest that NDP vote totals may closely track donations.
What's more, as I've noted, the connection between fund-raising and voting outcomes could be stronger this time out since there's far more room to convert an advantage in fund-raising capacity into campaign outcomes.
In 2012, it's possible that Mulcair in particular could have raised more than he did. But a $500,000 spending limit provided him with no particular incentive to raise substantially more than that amount.
In contrast, with the spending limit tripled this time around, the ability to raise more money can lead to a far stronger campaign operation. And with candidates needing to reach voters over multiple separate voting windows, a campaign's financial resources may be particularly crucial when members make their final decision.
So how much attention should we pay to fund-raising - particularly when it may conflict with some other normally-reliable indicators?
Since this time there actually is a meaningful difference in how the race projects based on various factors, I'd be surprised if the first ballot doesn't end up somewhere in the middle.
We certainly shouldn't look at the 2003 precedent and assume Jagmeet Singh's vote share will match his proportion of funds raised, particularly given the poll results released so far. But nor should we ignore either the importance of Singh's fund-raising lead as an indicator of support, or his ability to use donations to change the course of the campaign. And that advantage may be especially important if the race comes down to the wire.
Showing posts with label martin singh. Show all posts
Showing posts with label martin singh. Show all posts
Saturday, August 12, 2017
Sunday, January 27, 2013
On second choices
The next week should be a relatively quiet one for the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership candidates: the membership deadline has passed, while the finalized list of members won't necessarily be available until the end of the week ahead (per the leadership rules). But I'll use the opportunity to note one point to watch as the voting window approaches.
This weekend's Ontario Liberal leadership convention offered a stark example as to how candidates can direct their supporters' actions in a delegated vote. In contrast, the one member, one vote system used by the NDP limits the effectiveness of any late shows of support for another candidate - particularly as an increasing number of voters make use of the advance preferential voting option (with the encouragement of candidates who want to lock in their own support).
As a result, in order to maximize his influence in choosing the eventual leader, a candidate will need to make lower-ballot preferences known in advance as well. But most participants in similar races have chosen not to do so, based presumably on two risks: that a candidate's recognition that any outcome other than victory is acceptable might undermine his or her own support base, and that in naming a second choice a candidate might alienate potential down-ballot supporters who back other candidates.
Martin Singh's federal NDP leadership campaign serves as a rare exception where a candidate has offered a public show of second-choice support. But it also offers an example of the circumstances in which a lower-ranked candidate might see more advantage in making a preference known early.
With that background in mind, I'll be curious to see whether the coming weeks see any direct declarations (or indirect hints) as to how the candidates themselves see their fellow contestants. And given that few people will have gained as much insight into the candidates over the past few months as regularly as those who have shared the stage, it may well be worthwhile to push the question as to how the candidates see their competitors before it's time to start voting.
This weekend's Ontario Liberal leadership convention offered a stark example as to how candidates can direct their supporters' actions in a delegated vote. In contrast, the one member, one vote system used by the NDP limits the effectiveness of any late shows of support for another candidate - particularly as an increasing number of voters make use of the advance preferential voting option (with the encouragement of candidates who want to lock in their own support).
As a result, in order to maximize his influence in choosing the eventual leader, a candidate will need to make lower-ballot preferences known in advance as well. But most participants in similar races have chosen not to do so, based presumably on two risks: that a candidate's recognition that any outcome other than victory is acceptable might undermine his or her own support base, and that in naming a second choice a candidate might alienate potential down-ballot supporters who back other candidates.
Martin Singh's federal NDP leadership campaign serves as a rare exception where a candidate has offered a public show of second-choice support. But it also offers an example of the circumstances in which a lower-ranked candidate might see more advantage in making a preference known early.
With that background in mind, I'll be curious to see whether the coming weeks see any direct declarations (or indirect hints) as to how the candidates themselves see their fellow contestants. And given that few people will have gained as much insight into the candidates over the past few months as regularly as those who have shared the stage, it may well be worthwhile to push the question as to how the candidates see their competitors before it's time to start voting.
Monday, March 19, 2012
The decisive question
Following up on my candidate questionnaire and previous posts about party organization, I'll offer my own observations on the final two questions I posed to the leadership candidates.
I start from the premise that the primary goals of a leader are to serve as the party's public face and chief strategist. And while all of the candidates have shown at least some obvious ability in either or both of those areas, the biggest issue facing members this week will be to sort through the fact that there's such a wide range of strengths which may not all be applied under some scenarios.
It's fairly easy to see the strengths of the lower-tier candidates worked into the structure of whoever wins: surely nobody will want to undermine the enthusiasm Niki Ashton has built on the Prairies and among young members, or Martin Singh's inroads into the Sikh community.
As for the perceived upper tier, Brian Topp may not have caught fire as a candidate, but I don't see that affecting the general view that he's one of the country's top strategic minds (and someone who should remain part of the NDP's inner circle for a long time to come). Nathan Cullen stands out as the candidate with the highest upside as the face of the NDP outside of Quebec (and arguably within it as well). Paul Dewar's organizational plan would serve as a valuable blueprint for any of the candidates, but speaks particularly well to his own thought process as a leader. Peggy Nash has lots to offer on the party- and movement-building side as well, while also having plenty of ability to strengthen the party's economic credentials (as all candidates seem to agree we need to do). And Thomas Mulcair has displayed his massive strengths as both a spokesperson and strategist within Quebec, with potential to expand that appeal nationally.
Ideally, we'd see all of those talents put to good use. But there are still some reasons for concern as to whether or not they will be.
The obvious rivalry between Mulcair and Topp over the course of the leadership campaign leads to some worry that a Mulcair-led inner circle would have doubts about the NDP's long-time strategic team - and Mulcair's limited answers about his plans for the party don't help matters. Mulcair has also criticized Dewar's party-building plan, leading me to wonder whether he'll use what may be the best available organizational blueprint. And Cullen's rapport with voters may not achieve the greatest possible effect if it's being used to pursue an interparty strategy that doesn't find a willing partner or serve the purposes it's intended to achieve.
Of course, the members' means of trying to achieve that end is through a vote for a single leadership candidate. But that leads to what may be the key question in evaluating the candidates: who, if elected, would best recognize and apply the collective strengths of the leadership candidates, caucus and party at large? And my suspicion is that the answer to that question - viewing the candidates in terms of organizational leadership, rather than either personal profile alone or compromises among camps - should be our guiding principle in deciding which candidate to support.
I start from the premise that the primary goals of a leader are to serve as the party's public face and chief strategist. And while all of the candidates have shown at least some obvious ability in either or both of those areas, the biggest issue facing members this week will be to sort through the fact that there's such a wide range of strengths which may not all be applied under some scenarios.
It's fairly easy to see the strengths of the lower-tier candidates worked into the structure of whoever wins: surely nobody will want to undermine the enthusiasm Niki Ashton has built on the Prairies and among young members, or Martin Singh's inroads into the Sikh community.
As for the perceived upper tier, Brian Topp may not have caught fire as a candidate, but I don't see that affecting the general view that he's one of the country's top strategic minds (and someone who should remain part of the NDP's inner circle for a long time to come). Nathan Cullen stands out as the candidate with the highest upside as the face of the NDP outside of Quebec (and arguably within it as well). Paul Dewar's organizational plan would serve as a valuable blueprint for any of the candidates, but speaks particularly well to his own thought process as a leader. Peggy Nash has lots to offer on the party- and movement-building side as well, while also having plenty of ability to strengthen the party's economic credentials (as all candidates seem to agree we need to do). And Thomas Mulcair has displayed his massive strengths as both a spokesperson and strategist within Quebec, with potential to expand that appeal nationally.
Ideally, we'd see all of those talents put to good use. But there are still some reasons for concern as to whether or not they will be.
The obvious rivalry between Mulcair and Topp over the course of the leadership campaign leads to some worry that a Mulcair-led inner circle would have doubts about the NDP's long-time strategic team - and Mulcair's limited answers about his plans for the party don't help matters. Mulcair has also criticized Dewar's party-building plan, leading me to wonder whether he'll use what may be the best available organizational blueprint. And Cullen's rapport with voters may not achieve the greatest possible effect if it's being used to pursue an interparty strategy that doesn't find a willing partner or serve the purposes it's intended to achieve.
Of course, the members' means of trying to achieve that end is through a vote for a single leadership candidate. But that leads to what may be the key question in evaluating the candidates: who, if elected, would best recognize and apply the collective strengths of the leadership candidates, caucus and party at large? And my suspicion is that the answer to that question - viewing the candidates in terms of organizational leadership, rather than either personal profile alone or compromises among camps - should be our guiding principle in deciding which candidate to support.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - March 18, 2012
Since last week, we've seen the NDP's leadership campaign win plenty more attention in the media. But has any of the news managed to change the positioning of the candidates?
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Well, we've certainly seen Thomas Mulcair under the microscope more than he's ever been. But while the week gave rise to a couple of points which may not help his cause (with controversy over his positions on marijuana decriminalization and Syria among the points which may lose him later-ballot support), he still looks likely to hold a significant first-ballot lead over the next tier of candidates. And with Martin Singh expressly directing second-choice support toward Mulcair, we should expect another 5-point bump beyond what Mulcair gets on the first ballot before the rest of the candidates' supporters sort through their options.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash still looks like the most likely of those options to emerge as leader. Until we see some more recent polling, the best operating assumption seems to be that she's still in the #2 position to start with, and she's positioned herself as a plausible choice for backers of all of the rest of the candidates.
3. Paul Dewar (3)
But I do see the gap between the #2 and #4 positions on this list tightening as the race draws to a close - and the most important question may be that of who ends up #2 on the first ballot. If Dewar can get the jump on Nash, then he figures to have a strong chance to draw in supporters from her and Topp to set up a final ballot challenge to Mulcair - and the more time members spend wondering about the front-runner, the less likely they'll be to focus on Dewar's French as a deciding factor.
4. Nathan Cullen (4)
Unlike the two candidates ahead of him, Cullen has been the beneficiary of plenty of pundit commentary over the past month or so - and it seems to have at least some basis in fund-raising numbers. But the issue for Cullen remains his ability to draw in down-ballot support, so merely starting off in second place may not be enough if a good number of Nash/Dewar/Topp supporters join forces.
5. Brian Topp (5)
While Ed Broadbent's public statements this week earned Topp some attention, they also hinted at the largest issue with Topp's campaign: less than a week from the leadership vote, he still hasn't developed enough of a profile to make a dent compared to his more storied supporters. And that combined with a backlash from other camps figures to severely limit Topp's likelihood of convincing anybody to offer down-ballot support.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
One of the less-discussed advantages any candidate has enjoyed in the leadership race has been the fact that the Harper Cons have been pushing a pipeline right through Nathan Cullen's riding, giving him a signature issue to point to throughout the race. Ashton's great "what if" may be the question of whether she could have turned earlier news about a Viterra buyout - fitting with both her prairie base and concern about foreign takeovers - into enough of a membership and profile boost to rank higher in the field.
7. Martin Singh (7)
He's maximized his possible impact on the race by offering his second-choice support to Mulcair. But I'm still less than convinced that he's done much for his standing within the party even if Mulcair wins.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Well, we've certainly seen Thomas Mulcair under the microscope more than he's ever been. But while the week gave rise to a couple of points which may not help his cause (with controversy over his positions on marijuana decriminalization and Syria among the points which may lose him later-ballot support), he still looks likely to hold a significant first-ballot lead over the next tier of candidates. And with Martin Singh expressly directing second-choice support toward Mulcair, we should expect another 5-point bump beyond what Mulcair gets on the first ballot before the rest of the candidates' supporters sort through their options.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash still looks like the most likely of those options to emerge as leader. Until we see some more recent polling, the best operating assumption seems to be that she's still in the #2 position to start with, and she's positioned herself as a plausible choice for backers of all of the rest of the candidates.
3. Paul Dewar (3)
But I do see the gap between the #2 and #4 positions on this list tightening as the race draws to a close - and the most important question may be that of who ends up #2 on the first ballot. If Dewar can get the jump on Nash, then he figures to have a strong chance to draw in supporters from her and Topp to set up a final ballot challenge to Mulcair - and the more time members spend wondering about the front-runner, the less likely they'll be to focus on Dewar's French as a deciding factor.
4. Nathan Cullen (4)
Unlike the two candidates ahead of him, Cullen has been the beneficiary of plenty of pundit commentary over the past month or so - and it seems to have at least some basis in fund-raising numbers. But the issue for Cullen remains his ability to draw in down-ballot support, so merely starting off in second place may not be enough if a good number of Nash/Dewar/Topp supporters join forces.
5. Brian Topp (5)
While Ed Broadbent's public statements this week earned Topp some attention, they also hinted at the largest issue with Topp's campaign: less than a week from the leadership vote, he still hasn't developed enough of a profile to make a dent compared to his more storied supporters. And that combined with a backlash from other camps figures to severely limit Topp's likelihood of convincing anybody to offer down-ballot support.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
One of the less-discussed advantages any candidate has enjoyed in the leadership race has been the fact that the Harper Cons have been pushing a pipeline right through Nathan Cullen's riding, giving him a signature issue to point to throughout the race. Ashton's great "what if" may be the question of whether she could have turned earlier news about a Viterra buyout - fitting with both her prairie base and concern about foreign takeovers - into enough of a membership and profile boost to rank higher in the field.
7. Martin Singh (7)
He's maximized his possible impact on the race by offering his second-choice support to Mulcair. But I'm still less than convinced that he's done much for his standing within the party even if Mulcair wins.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Leadership 2012 Roundup
The latest couple of days worth of news as the NDP's leadership campaign enters its final week - aside from multiple candidates including Niki Ashton, Paul Dewar and Peggy Nash all taking the opportunity to call for unity in the wake of the continued overreaction to Ed Broadbent's latest comments.
- Ashton made the case for the NDP to hold a prairie breakthrough conference.
- Cullen was profiled by Allan Woods, while earning endorsements from Stephen Elliott-Buckley and a noteworthy set of Saskatchewan stalwarts including Peter Prebble and Nettie Wiebe.
- Thomas Mulcair won a number of endorsements for himself, including a massive media push from the Star. But the show of support which best reflects what I'd hope for in a Mulcair-led NDP (albeit extended far beyond the acceptance speech) is Gerald Caplan's:
- Peggy Nash made the case that being from Quebec isn't a prerequisite to connecting with the NDP's new Quebec voter base, while also making an appeal for respect for Canada's democratic system:
- Martin Singh answered questions from Macleans' Gabriela Perdomo.
- Aaron Wherry rounded up some of the candidates' recent video clips. Smith reviewed the latest fund-raising numbers showing Cullen again performing well at the end of the campaign. And Justin Ling echoed Brian Topp's theme that the NDP can win with a social democratic message.
- Ashton made the case for the NDP to hold a prairie breakthrough conference.
- Cullen was profiled by Allan Woods, while earning endorsements from Stephen Elliott-Buckley and a noteworthy set of Saskatchewan stalwarts including Peter Prebble and Nettie Wiebe.
- Thomas Mulcair won a number of endorsements for himself, including a massive media push from the Star. But the show of support which best reflects what I'd hope for in a Mulcair-led NDP (albeit extended far beyond the acceptance speech) is Gerald Caplan's:
He can immediately reassure the entire party in two critical ways. He can in his acceptance speech give voice to those magnificent social democratic ideals and principles – equality, social justice, peace – for which the New Democratic Party has always existed. And he can show his magnanimity in victory and his understanding of the need for a strong, united, inclusive movement by embracing not only his worthy opponents but their talented and committed workers as well.Meanwhile, other voices weighed in on Mulcair including Joanna Smith, Chris Selley, Paul Wells and Barbara Yaffe.
My support explicitly assumes him doing exactly that.
- Peggy Nash made the case that being from Quebec isn't a prerequisite to connecting with the NDP's new Quebec voter base, while also making an appeal for respect for Canada's democratic system:
- Martin Singh answered questions from Macleans' Gabriela Perdomo.
- Aaron Wherry rounded up some of the candidates' recent video clips. Smith reviewed the latest fund-raising numbers showing Cullen again performing well at the end of the campaign. And Justin Ling echoed Brian Topp's theme that the NDP can win with a social democratic message.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Leadership 2012 Roundup
A couple more days' worth of developments in the NDP's leadership campaign...
- Niki Ashton argued that Canada's grain supply should be considered a strategic resource in evaluating takeover bids for Viterra, and earned a glowing profile from Carol Goar.
- Nathan Cullen unveiled another caucus endorsement from Bruce Hyer (who also listed Thomas Mulcair and Paul Dewar as his ballot choices), while earning some fund-raising support from former B.C. Premier Glen Clark. And as pointed out by Dan, he also clarified that joint nominations aren't the only possibility on the table to beat the Cons:
- Alice discussed Martin Singh's candidacy on Power Play:
Meanwhile, Singh himself released a denial which directly recommends that his supporters list Mulcair 2nd on their ballots - and I'm curious to find out whether that will stick out like a sore thumb for the balance of the campaign, or whether other candidates will follow suit in trying to shape how their supporters fill out their preferential ballots.
- Brian Topp unveiled a rare endorsement switch, as MP Sana Hassainia retracted her earlier endorsement of Mulcair to join Topp's backers.
- Tariq Jeeroburkhan graded the leadership candidates - though with a few seemingly questionable conclusions (does anybody else rate Cullen at the back of the pack for media presence?). John Doyle's belated debate analysis featured plenty of praise for Nash. Alice Klein suggested that voters list Cullen 1st and Mulcair 2nd, while Jeremy Richler made his case for Mulcair. And Joanna Smith reported on the candidates' social media attention, with Cullen leading the way.
- Niki Ashton argued that Canada's grain supply should be considered a strategic resource in evaluating takeover bids for Viterra, and earned a glowing profile from Carol Goar.
- Nathan Cullen unveiled another caucus endorsement from Bruce Hyer (who also listed Thomas Mulcair and Paul Dewar as his ballot choices), while earning some fund-raising support from former B.C. Premier Glen Clark. And as pointed out by Dan, he also clarified that joint nominations aren't the only possibility on the table to beat the Cons:
Yahoo!: Are strategic alliances the only way to beat Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the next election?- Thomas Mulcair won the support of Jack Harris. Bill Tierney profiled Thomas Mulcair as a successful political risk-taker, while Jooneed Khan suggested his Quebec establishment support should be seen as a kiss of death.
Cullen: No, it's just one of the better ways. It's a way that reflects progressive values and it reflects the NDP's experience.
- Alice discussed Martin Singh's candidacy on Power Play:
Meanwhile, Singh himself released a denial which directly recommends that his supporters list Mulcair 2nd on their ballots - and I'm curious to find out whether that will stick out like a sore thumb for the balance of the campaign, or whether other candidates will follow suit in trying to shape how their supporters fill out their preferential ballots.
- Brian Topp unveiled a rare endorsement switch, as MP Sana Hassainia retracted her earlier endorsement of Mulcair to join Topp's backers.
- Tariq Jeeroburkhan graded the leadership candidates - though with a few seemingly questionable conclusions (does anybody else rate Cullen at the back of the pack for media presence?). John Doyle's belated debate analysis featured plenty of praise for Nash. Alice Klein suggested that voters list Cullen 1st and Mulcair 2nd, while Jeremy Richler made his case for Mulcair. And Joanna Smith reported on the candidates' social media attention, with Cullen leading the way.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - March 11, 2012
Over the past couple of weeks, we've seen what look to be a couple of noteworthy efforts among the NDP's leadership candidates to reach out to other campaigns' supporters in order to win over the down-ballot support that will likely decide the outcome of the campaign. So how have those efforts changed my rankings as to who's most likely to emerge as the winner?
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Not much at the top, as Mulcair still looks like at least an even-odds candidate to win. He didn't offer a great deal in response to a series of direct questions as to his plans for the NDP's future, but he once again performed well otherwise.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
However, the recent shifts in campaign strategy play a significant role here. I probably would have moved Nash down the rankings this week if her campaign hadn't positioned her to benefit from Nathan Cullen's supporters with a focus on both proportional representation and co-operation short of joint nominations. But she now figures to have a much better chance than the other second-tier candidates of rallying enough of the combined 2-through-5 support to overcome Mulcair's lead - and Paul Dewar's debate effort to draw a contrast on the latter point may have helped Nash more than himself.
3. Paul Dewar (3)
Which isn't to say Dewar is lacking for some pluses of his own as the campaign winds down. He's conspicuously positioned himself as the leading defender of cooperation within the NDP, and looks to have a relatively direct path to a final-ballot photo-finish if he can get ahead of Nash early to win the votes of her supporters.
4. Nathan Cullen (5)
Cullen was the other candidate to make a smart appeal to an important source of potential down-ballot support - as his question to Martin Singh about his attacks on Brian Topp will likely make Topp's set of vocal defenders see him in a new and more positive light.
5. Brian Topp (4)
I agree with the view of many pundits that Topp performed very well in today's debate - as the punchlines which fell flat through much of the campaign suddenly seemed to land at every turn. But unfortunately for Topp, that success is more than offset by the fact that the media which so willingly listed him as a front-runner from the beginning seems to have concluded he's an afterthought. And I'm not sure he has another path to victory if he's indeed lost the media air war.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
Ashton delivered her best debate performance today as well - which was to be expected given the fit between the topics and her campaign themes. But even if she sneaks ahead of one of the second-tier candidates on the first ballot, it's not clear where she'd have room to grow enough to win.
7. Martin Singh (7)
Finally, Singh's late-campaign decisions may have gone past the point of being useless in the context of the leadership race to actually hurting his future within the NDP. While I'm skeptical about the Mulcair alliance theory, his refusal to back down from his attacks on Topp will make it difficult for a victorious Mulcair to give Singh a prominent role without raising questions and hackles - and Cullen's appalled reaction during the debate itself figures to nicely sum up how the other candidates and NDP members view his choice of targets and messages.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Not much at the top, as Mulcair still looks like at least an even-odds candidate to win. He didn't offer a great deal in response to a series of direct questions as to his plans for the NDP's future, but he once again performed well otherwise.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
However, the recent shifts in campaign strategy play a significant role here. I probably would have moved Nash down the rankings this week if her campaign hadn't positioned her to benefit from Nathan Cullen's supporters with a focus on both proportional representation and co-operation short of joint nominations. But she now figures to have a much better chance than the other second-tier candidates of rallying enough of the combined 2-through-5 support to overcome Mulcair's lead - and Paul Dewar's debate effort to draw a contrast on the latter point may have helped Nash more than himself.
3. Paul Dewar (3)
Which isn't to say Dewar is lacking for some pluses of his own as the campaign winds down. He's conspicuously positioned himself as the leading defender of cooperation within the NDP, and looks to have a relatively direct path to a final-ballot photo-finish if he can get ahead of Nash early to win the votes of her supporters.
4. Nathan Cullen (5)
Cullen was the other candidate to make a smart appeal to an important source of potential down-ballot support - as his question to Martin Singh about his attacks on Brian Topp will likely make Topp's set of vocal defenders see him in a new and more positive light.
5. Brian Topp (4)
I agree with the view of many pundits that Topp performed very well in today's debate - as the punchlines which fell flat through much of the campaign suddenly seemed to land at every turn. But unfortunately for Topp, that success is more than offset by the fact that the media which so willingly listed him as a front-runner from the beginning seems to have concluded he's an afterthought. And I'm not sure he has another path to victory if he's indeed lost the media air war.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
Ashton delivered her best debate performance today as well - which was to be expected given the fit between the topics and her campaign themes. But even if she sneaks ahead of one of the second-tier candidates on the first ballot, it's not clear where she'd have room to grow enough to win.
7. Martin Singh (7)
Finally, Singh's late-campaign decisions may have gone past the point of being useless in the context of the leadership race to actually hurting his future within the NDP. While I'm skeptical about the Mulcair alliance theory, his refusal to back down from his attacks on Topp will make it difficult for a victorious Mulcair to give Singh a prominent role without raising questions and hackles - and Cullen's appalled reaction during the debate itself figures to nicely sum up how the other candidates and NDP members view his choice of targets and messages.
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Leadership 2012 Roundup
As we enter the last few weeks of the NDP's leadership race, we're of course seeing loads of attention. But what from the flurry of activity might actually affect the results of the leadership race as well as the party's future development?
- Niki Ashton took questions at Rabble, including this on how to fight back against the Cons:
- Paul Dewar summarized his campaign by the numbers.
- Peggy Nash was profiled by John Geddes, with a focus on her tenacious work on labour and social justice issues. And Nash also unveiled an open letter of support from young NDP members.
- Chrystal offered up some musings from a well-informed party newcomer. John Ibbitson theorized that Cullen might wind up playing kingmaker for Thomas Mulcair. Duncan Cameron made the case for Nash, while Ottawa Life threw its support behind Dewar. And Tobi Cohen summarized the latest financial reports which showed a couple of noteworthy developments: Mulcair has pulled into the lead with a relatively small advantage over Topp, Dewar, Nash and Cullen, while Martin Singh's number of individual donations alone (upwards of 7,000) would make for a respectable first-ballot showing if it translates into votes.
- Niki Ashton took questions at Rabble, including this on how to fight back against the Cons:
I have dealt with the Conservative attack machine directly. In 2006 I was targeted because i was nominated and campaigned in support of same-sex marriage. In the 2011 election I was targeted by Conservative robocalls because I support trans-gendered rights. I have found the best way to fight the Conservative attack machine is to expose it and fight back on the issue itself.- Nathan Cullen has been all over the media this week, including interviews with the Huffington Post and The Current. And the latter appearance (at roughly 6:00) offered a particularly noteworthy development as Cullen proclaimed himself "not wedded to the details" of his specific joint nomination proposal as compared to a general desire to cooperate with progressives across party lines.
...
Canadians know that all of us rely on advisors. Stephen Harper relies on spin doctors and corporate lobbyists. For myself, I will make it clear that I intend to make decisions based on solid evidence about what works and what doesn't. And I will put forward a vision of a new kind of leadership-one where leaders have the confidence to allow others to show leadership, too.
- Paul Dewar summarized his campaign by the numbers.
- Peggy Nash was profiled by John Geddes, with a focus on her tenacious work on labour and social justice issues. And Nash also unveiled an open letter of support from young NDP members.
- Chrystal offered up some musings from a well-informed party newcomer. John Ibbitson theorized that Cullen might wind up playing kingmaker for Thomas Mulcair. Duncan Cameron made the case for Nash, while Ottawa Life threw its support behind Dewar. And Tobi Cohen summarized the latest financial reports which showed a couple of noteworthy developments: Mulcair has pulled into the lead with a relatively small advantage over Topp, Dewar, Nash and Cullen, while Martin Singh's number of individual donations alone (upwards of 7,000) would make for a respectable first-ballot showing if it translates into votes.
Sunday, March 04, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - March 4, 2012
With the voting window open and the second-last debate having just finished, we're into the home stretch of the NDP's leadership campaign. I've posted on the outcomes I'd like to see - but since that's a separate question entirely from how I think matters actually will play out, let's see if anything has changed since last week in my weekly ranking process.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Once again Mulcair ranks well ahead of the second tier of candidates following another week packed with endorsements and another strong debate performance. Unfortunately nobody seriously questioned what his plans are in structuring the opposition - which means that it's no surprise that he didn't bother to explain himself, but also leaves an obvious risk for his campaign if he can't escape the question next week.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Again, these rankings are based on who has the best chance of winning the leadership rather than my preferences as to who will. And while Nash showed a few of the same problems as usual in today's debate (again posing a question to Dewar about his planned deputies which echoed a previous questioner), she still seems to have by far the best positioning in trying to gather support within the second tier of candidates.
3. Paul Dewar (4)
At this point in the campaign, I'd think the candidates' own choice of targets says a lot about who they see as having the best chance to emerge as leader. And so it may be telling that Dewar was under fire throughout today's second question period, while nobody other than Martin Singh had much apparent interest in challenging Brian Topp.
4. Brian Topp (3)
Mind you, Topp did perform better today than he has most of the way through most of the debates, combining his usual policy substance with a much better effort to connect with the audience. But while he still has a plausible path to pick up down-ballot support, that won't do much good if he's clearly behind Nash and Dewar early on - which is looking like an increasingly likely outcome.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Once again Cullen performed well in today's debate, particularly in response to pointed questions from Mulcair about his support for the Sherbrooke Declaration. But in another running theme, his limited prospect of down-ballot support leaves him at the back of the pack for now.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
As in most of the debates Ashton had some strong moments today, but also struggled with a number of responses. And the opportunities to wow debate audiences to make up for limited organizational resources are running out quickly.
7. Martin Singh (7)
I'm not sure what Singh hoped to accomplish by attacking a select group of opponents as much as he did in today's debate - and indeed I wonder whether the intention is to be seen paving the way for a Mulcair victory by signalling how he'd like his supporters to vote as a second choice. But I have to figure that in the long run all the candidates will be best off not going as far over the top as Singh did.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Once again Mulcair ranks well ahead of the second tier of candidates following another week packed with endorsements and another strong debate performance. Unfortunately nobody seriously questioned what his plans are in structuring the opposition - which means that it's no surprise that he didn't bother to explain himself, but also leaves an obvious risk for his campaign if he can't escape the question next week.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Again, these rankings are based on who has the best chance of winning the leadership rather than my preferences as to who will. And while Nash showed a few of the same problems as usual in today's debate (again posing a question to Dewar about his planned deputies which echoed a previous questioner), she still seems to have by far the best positioning in trying to gather support within the second tier of candidates.
3. Paul Dewar (4)
At this point in the campaign, I'd think the candidates' own choice of targets says a lot about who they see as having the best chance to emerge as leader. And so it may be telling that Dewar was under fire throughout today's second question period, while nobody other than Martin Singh had much apparent interest in challenging Brian Topp.
4. Brian Topp (3)
Mind you, Topp did perform better today than he has most of the way through most of the debates, combining his usual policy substance with a much better effort to connect with the audience. But while he still has a plausible path to pick up down-ballot support, that won't do much good if he's clearly behind Nash and Dewar early on - which is looking like an increasingly likely outcome.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Once again Cullen performed well in today's debate, particularly in response to pointed questions from Mulcair about his support for the Sherbrooke Declaration. But in another running theme, his limited prospect of down-ballot support leaves him at the back of the pack for now.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
As in most of the debates Ashton had some strong moments today, but also struggled with a number of responses. And the opportunities to wow debate audiences to make up for limited organizational resources are running out quickly.
7. Martin Singh (7)
I'm not sure what Singh hoped to accomplish by attacking a select group of opponents as much as he did in today's debate - and indeed I wonder whether the intention is to be seen paving the way for a Mulcair victory by signalling how he'd like his supporters to vote as a second choice. But I have to figure that in the long run all the candidates will be best off not going as far over the top as Singh did.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Analysis - Martin Singh
Let's turn to the second candidate to be reviewed as a contender for the NDP's leadership. Martin Singh still looks to trail most of his competitors in the leadership campaign, but has undoubtedly raised his profile both inside and outside the party. So what would we expect if he were leader?
1. What direction will he set for the NDP?
Singh hasn't had to answer many questions about his organizational philosophy. And so the main information we have on this point comes from his platform and debate messaging.
On that front, Singh has been quite clear that he's concerned about appealing to business with a particular focus on entrepreneurship, while building those interests into his other platform planks on health care and the environment. Which means that he ranks further to the right than any other candidate in his core message.
2. How will he respond when pushed off course?
And how we've heard that core message throughout the campaign. Singh gets credit for knowing what he wants to say and repeating it, but he's taken even the most basic questions on unrelated issues as an invitation to launch into his platform. Which means that we don't much know how he'd respond in substance to a serious challenge to position.
3. How do his personal traits affect his ability to reach the destination implied by the answer to question 1?
Singh has impressed some by holding his own in debates against far more experienced politicians, and his claimed membership numbers certainly look impressive as a measure of his ability to win over first-choice followers. But he hasn't stood out as a performer among the field of contenders, and wouldn't figure to have any particular advantage under this question either.
Conclusion
Singh has nicely laid out the groundwork for a future as a relatively centrist NDP MP. But based on his inexperience and the limited scope of his leadership campaign, it's likely for the best that he's in the lower tier of candidates for now.
1. What direction will he set for the NDP?
Singh hasn't had to answer many questions about his organizational philosophy. And so the main information we have on this point comes from his platform and debate messaging.
On that front, Singh has been quite clear that he's concerned about appealing to business with a particular focus on entrepreneurship, while building those interests into his other platform planks on health care and the environment. Which means that he ranks further to the right than any other candidate in his core message.
2. How will he respond when pushed off course?
And how we've heard that core message throughout the campaign. Singh gets credit for knowing what he wants to say and repeating it, but he's taken even the most basic questions on unrelated issues as an invitation to launch into his platform. Which means that we don't much know how he'd respond in substance to a serious challenge to position.
3. How do his personal traits affect his ability to reach the destination implied by the answer to question 1?
Singh has impressed some by holding his own in debates against far more experienced politicians, and his claimed membership numbers certainly look impressive as a measure of his ability to win over first-choice followers. But he hasn't stood out as a performer among the field of contenders, and wouldn't figure to have any particular advantage under this question either.
Conclusion
Singh has nicely laid out the groundwork for a future as a relatively centrist NDP MP. But based on his inexperience and the limited scope of his leadership campaign, it's likely for the best that he's in the lower tier of candidates for now.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - February 26, 2012
Today's debate didn't do much to resolve the continued uncertainty surrounding the NDP's leadership campaign, particularly among the candidates I've had ranked between 2nd and 5th for the bulk of the race. But let's see if the last week has changed any of the rankings...
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Mulcair still ranks well ahead of the pack, and indeed is largely rising above the most contentious exchanges as the candidates below jockey for position. But his new "strong, structured opposition" catchphrase rather cries out for explanation - and I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of NDP members have serious concerns about the prospect of top-down organization and message control if that's what he has in mind.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
I count myself in the crowd that's long expected a Mulcair vs. Nash final ballot. But I'm becoming less and less convinced that Nash will indeed be the final candidate left to challenge Mulcair - and she holds this place on the list for another week mostly for lack of a clear indication who's set to step into the position.
3. Brian Topp (4)
Topp could well be that candidate, as he once again showed his ability to drive the narrative this week, first seeing his camp join Mulcair's in suggesting the next leader has to come from Quebec before launching a strong challenge to Mulcair. But at least from my observations of the debates so far, Topp has all too often conveyed a much higher personal opinion of his performance than the audience has offered - and it's hard to see that being a recipe for down-ballot success.
4. Paul Dewar (3)
Meanwhile, Dewar had a good week on a couple of fronts, winning over key support from Romeo Saganash's former camp while sounding convincing on the party-building front in today's debate. But his French is still at best borderline for a serious contender, and it'll be tough to place him higher then Nash or Topp in the long run without either showing a similarly fundamental weakness.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Today offered a first indication as to how Cullen will respond to being seen as a serious threat to the rest of the upper-tier candidates. And while he wasn't able to play the jokester to quite the same extent as a result, he generally held up well under the pressure.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
Once again Ashton had her moments in today's debate, particularly in a rousing warning to Stephen Harper at the end of her closing statement. But she was somewhat inconsistent as well, starting the same address sounding somewhat flustered and uncertain - and she's running out of time to show she can stay consistently effective throughout a debate.
7. Martin Singh (7)
Singh took a couple of steps beyond his core campaign messages today, and with one key exception that generally served him well. But his repeated challenges to Brian Topp look to have been utterly misplaced: the last thing the NDP can afford in trying to promote a progressive economic message is to have prominent figures promoting generous tax regimes for the wealthy in order to fund the charitable sector, and Singh's one-note questioning on that front did more to call his own judgment into question than Topp's
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Mulcair still ranks well ahead of the pack, and indeed is largely rising above the most contentious exchanges as the candidates below jockey for position. But his new "strong, structured opposition" catchphrase rather cries out for explanation - and I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of NDP members have serious concerns about the prospect of top-down organization and message control if that's what he has in mind.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
I count myself in the crowd that's long expected a Mulcair vs. Nash final ballot. But I'm becoming less and less convinced that Nash will indeed be the final candidate left to challenge Mulcair - and she holds this place on the list for another week mostly for lack of a clear indication who's set to step into the position.
3. Brian Topp (4)
Topp could well be that candidate, as he once again showed his ability to drive the narrative this week, first seeing his camp join Mulcair's in suggesting the next leader has to come from Quebec before launching a strong challenge to Mulcair. But at least from my observations of the debates so far, Topp has all too often conveyed a much higher personal opinion of his performance than the audience has offered - and it's hard to see that being a recipe for down-ballot success.
4. Paul Dewar (3)
Meanwhile, Dewar had a good week on a couple of fronts, winning over key support from Romeo Saganash's former camp while sounding convincing on the party-building front in today's debate. But his French is still at best borderline for a serious contender, and it'll be tough to place him higher then Nash or Topp in the long run without either showing a similarly fundamental weakness.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Today offered a first indication as to how Cullen will respond to being seen as a serious threat to the rest of the upper-tier candidates. And while he wasn't able to play the jokester to quite the same extent as a result, he generally held up well under the pressure.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
Once again Ashton had her moments in today's debate, particularly in a rousing warning to Stephen Harper at the end of her closing statement. But she was somewhat inconsistent as well, starting the same address sounding somewhat flustered and uncertain - and she's running out of time to show she can stay consistently effective throughout a debate.
7. Martin Singh (7)
Singh took a couple of steps beyond his core campaign messages today, and with one key exception that generally served him well. But his repeated challenges to Brian Topp look to have been utterly misplaced: the last thing the NDP can afford in trying to promote a progressive economic message is to have prominent figures promoting generous tax regimes for the wealthy in order to fund the charitable sector, and Singh's one-note questioning on that front did more to call his own judgment into question than Topp's
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - February 19, 2012
We'll get plenty more information about where the leadership campaign stands once we see how membership sales have turned out. But there's been enough news in the past week to make one change to the rankings for now.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
When I started these rankings, I clarified that being ranked at the top of the list (and thus having a seemingly greater likelihood of winning than any other candidate) didn't necessarily mean Mulcair was more likely than not to emerge as the NDP's leader. Now, I'll at least temporarily revisit that clarification: while the principles behind the rankings haven't changed, I'd currently place Mulcair's chances of victory somewhere slightly north of 50%.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Meanwhile, the identity of his top challenger remains the same as well. But I'll be curious to see whether there's been any positive/negative impression polling to show if Nash actually enjoys enough enthusiasm to actually gather momentum, or whether inertia is the most important factor operating in her favour.
3. Paul Dewar (4)
I don't think the poll results released this week change the relative positioning of the candidates as spun by Dewar's camp. But his latest set of endorsements gives him a far stronger answer to the question of "can he win support in Quebec?" than he could offer so far, and that's enough to vault him narrowly ahead of...
4. Brian Topp (3)
The other part of the reason for the change in this week's rankings is that one of Topp's weaknesses from day one only seems to have been exacerbated as the campaign has progressed. The more Topp turns off supporters of other candidates, the less likely he is to earn enough down-ballot votes to win - and while I'm not entirely unsympathetic to the need for clash in the leadership campaign, Topp seems to have provoked more of a negative response than any other candidate which severely limits his chances of emerging as a compromise choice.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Cullen had a great week in the media thanks to shows of support from key outside groups. But while he looks like a strong bet to finish third or fourth on the first ballot, it's still questionable whether enough of the NDP's base will provide him with any down-ballot support to permit any growth from there.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
A quiet week may signal that Ashton is looking to the debates to make or break her campaign from here on in - which may well make for her best hope, especially if her fund-raising hasn't picked up.
7. Martin Singh (7)
Finally, it's been another quiet week from Singh's camp as well - and again, no news isn't good news for a candidate already stuck at the back of the pack.
[Edit: added labels; fixed wording.]
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
When I started these rankings, I clarified that being ranked at the top of the list (and thus having a seemingly greater likelihood of winning than any other candidate) didn't necessarily mean Mulcair was more likely than not to emerge as the NDP's leader. Now, I'll at least temporarily revisit that clarification: while the principles behind the rankings haven't changed, I'd currently place Mulcair's chances of victory somewhere slightly north of 50%.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Meanwhile, the identity of his top challenger remains the same as well. But I'll be curious to see whether there's been any positive/negative impression polling to show if Nash actually enjoys enough enthusiasm to actually gather momentum, or whether inertia is the most important factor operating in her favour.
3. Paul Dewar (4)
I don't think the poll results released this week change the relative positioning of the candidates as spun by Dewar's camp. But his latest set of endorsements gives him a far stronger answer to the question of "can he win support in Quebec?" than he could offer so far, and that's enough to vault him narrowly ahead of...
4. Brian Topp (3)
The other part of the reason for the change in this week's rankings is that one of Topp's weaknesses from day one only seems to have been exacerbated as the campaign has progressed. The more Topp turns off supporters of other candidates, the less likely he is to earn enough down-ballot votes to win - and while I'm not entirely unsympathetic to the need for clash in the leadership campaign, Topp seems to have provoked more of a negative response than any other candidate which severely limits his chances of emerging as a compromise choice.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Cullen had a great week in the media thanks to shows of support from key outside groups. But while he looks like a strong bet to finish third or fourth on the first ballot, it's still questionable whether enough of the NDP's base will provide him with any down-ballot support to permit any growth from there.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
A quiet week may signal that Ashton is looking to the debates to make or break her campaign from here on in - which may well make for her best hope, especially if her fund-raising hasn't picked up.
7. Martin Singh (7)
Finally, it's been another quiet week from Singh's camp as well - and again, no news isn't good news for a candidate already stuck at the back of the pack.
[Edit: added labels; fixed wording.]
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - February 12, 2012
It's undoubtedly been an eventful seven days in the NDP's leadership campaign - and one of the most important weeks of the race is just around the corner as the membership deadline approaches. But does any of the activity change this week's rankings?
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Certainly not at the top. And in fact Mulcair may be breathing a sign of relief after today: a contentious discussion about the Middle East might have been one of the most obvious sources of possible trouble for him, but nothing of the sort materialized in the foreign policy debate.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
I didn't see today's performance as one of her better ones, but it was still more than enough to position her as the primary alternative to Mulcair. And the Quebec MPs she's adding to her endorsement list may go a long way in holding off Topp as the campaign progresses.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Meanwhile, nobody looks to have missed more opportunities to try to shake up the race than Topp. But he did deliver a solid all-around performance - and it could be that he's reasonably concluded that it's time to start building up general down-ballot support rather than serving as the campaign's agitator.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
The French-language debate had potential to send Dewar's ranking in either direction. But instead, he held his own without hugely impressing - meaning that he'll stay in the top tier, but still figure to have trouble standing out as the campaign progresses.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Another effective debate performance can't push Cullen up the rankings this week. And indeed I have to wonder whether some media perception of momentum will ultimately backfire: it seems to me that the biggest weakness of his co-operation plan is less the Libs' progressive bona fides in government than their actions to keep the Cons in power while in opposition (raising issues about their trustworthiness in recognizing any "clear and present danger" from Stephen Harper or acting to address it), and I have to figure Cullen will face some largely unanswerable questions on that point before long.
6. Niki Ashton (7)
She did extremely well in today's debate, expanding on her previous themes and holding her own on foreign policy issues. But this time the rest of the field mostly matched that performance - and she needs to start recovering ground quickly to have much of a chance of emerging ahead of the field.
7. Martin Singh (8)
Meanwhile, Singh was clearly a cut below the rest of the candidates today, generally failing to stick to the topics presented and having some trouble making an impact even on his choice of replacement topics. But the good news for him is that at the current pace, enough candidates will drop out to leave him alone in first by about mid-2013.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Certainly not at the top. And in fact Mulcair may be breathing a sign of relief after today: a contentious discussion about the Middle East might have been one of the most obvious sources of possible trouble for him, but nothing of the sort materialized in the foreign policy debate.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
I didn't see today's performance as one of her better ones, but it was still more than enough to position her as the primary alternative to Mulcair. And the Quebec MPs she's adding to her endorsement list may go a long way in holding off Topp as the campaign progresses.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Meanwhile, nobody looks to have missed more opportunities to try to shake up the race than Topp. But he did deliver a solid all-around performance - and it could be that he's reasonably concluded that it's time to start building up general down-ballot support rather than serving as the campaign's agitator.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
The French-language debate had potential to send Dewar's ranking in either direction. But instead, he held his own without hugely impressing - meaning that he'll stay in the top tier, but still figure to have trouble standing out as the campaign progresses.
5. Nathan Cullen (5)
Another effective debate performance can't push Cullen up the rankings this week. And indeed I have to wonder whether some media perception of momentum will ultimately backfire: it seems to me that the biggest weakness of his co-operation plan is less the Libs' progressive bona fides in government than their actions to keep the Cons in power while in opposition (raising issues about their trustworthiness in recognizing any "clear and present danger" from Stephen Harper or acting to address it), and I have to figure Cullen will face some largely unanswerable questions on that point before long.
6. Niki Ashton (7)
She did extremely well in today's debate, expanding on her previous themes and holding her own on foreign policy issues. But this time the rest of the field mostly matched that performance - and she needs to start recovering ground quickly to have much of a chance of emerging ahead of the field.
7. Martin Singh (8)
Meanwhile, Singh was clearly a cut below the rest of the candidates today, generally failing to stick to the topics presented and having some trouble making an impact even on his choice of replacement topics. But the good news for him is that at the current pace, enough candidates will drop out to leave him alone in first by about mid-2013.
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - February 5, 2012
Since it's been a little while, I'll offer another of my periodic caveats that these rankings are intended to reflect my perception as to how likely a particular candidate is to win the NDP's leadership rather than my own preferences. So has anything changed on that front since last week?
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Well, the top of the rankings hasn't changed at all as long as I've been putting together these rankings. And with Mulcair starting to build a national labour base to rival that of any other contender, it may take either a serious scandal shockingly disappointing Quebec membership numbers to drop him from the top position at any point in the campaign.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
And similarly, two smooth policy launches and a strong video release keep Nash comfortably in second place.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Here's where it starts getting somewhat more interesting. I'll leave Topp in the #3 position thanks to a combination of impressive fund-raising numbers and what's continued to be a mostly solid campaign. But the controversy around a campaign worker misrepresenting Romeo Saganash's ability to speak French might offer the start of a dangerous narrative for a candidate whose appeal is based largely on organizational ability.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
By all accounts Dewar has continued to impress over the past couple of weeks. But I'll need to either see him hold his own in French or conclude that Topp is running into an equally significant obstacle in order to move Dewar up.
5. Nathan Cullen (6)
So here's the change for this week. Cullen's organization has matched up nicely with the top tier of candidates from the start of the race in terms of fund-raising, and he's starting to pull in a substantial amount of earned media attention.
6. Romeo Saganash (5)
Meanwhile, Saganash's weak fund-raising numbers look to offer a definitive "no" to the question of whether he had some initial organization strength that wasn't showing up in traditional political channels. And while I still think he has a path to victory, it's getting late to start making up ground compared to his competitors.
7. Niki Ashton (7)
And in fact, Ashton may not be far from eclipsing Saganash - particularly if she has any more MP endorsements left to follow Carol Hughes' nod this week.
8. Martin Singh (8)
This was actually a very positive week for Singh, as he not only released his first policy plank in ages, but also showed that he's doing better than both Saganash and Ashton on the fund-raising front. But while I'd probably take an even-money bet that Singh won't be in last place on the first ballot, these rankings are still based on the likelihood of victory - and there seems to be little chance of Singh assembling enough down-ballot support to come out on top.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Well, the top of the rankings hasn't changed at all as long as I've been putting together these rankings. And with Mulcair starting to build a national labour base to rival that of any other contender, it may take either a serious scandal shockingly disappointing Quebec membership numbers to drop him from the top position at any point in the campaign.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
And similarly, two smooth policy launches and a strong video release keep Nash comfortably in second place.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Here's where it starts getting somewhat more interesting. I'll leave Topp in the #3 position thanks to a combination of impressive fund-raising numbers and what's continued to be a mostly solid campaign. But the controversy around a campaign worker misrepresenting Romeo Saganash's ability to speak French might offer the start of a dangerous narrative for a candidate whose appeal is based largely on organizational ability.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
By all accounts Dewar has continued to impress over the past couple of weeks. But I'll need to either see him hold his own in French or conclude that Topp is running into an equally significant obstacle in order to move Dewar up.
5. Nathan Cullen (6)
So here's the change for this week. Cullen's organization has matched up nicely with the top tier of candidates from the start of the race in terms of fund-raising, and he's starting to pull in a substantial amount of earned media attention.
6. Romeo Saganash (5)
Meanwhile, Saganash's weak fund-raising numbers look to offer a definitive "no" to the question of whether he had some initial organization strength that wasn't showing up in traditional political channels. And while I still think he has a path to victory, it's getting late to start making up ground compared to his competitors.
7. Niki Ashton (7)
And in fact, Ashton may not be far from eclipsing Saganash - particularly if she has any more MP endorsements left to follow Carol Hughes' nod this week.
8. Martin Singh (8)
This was actually a very positive week for Singh, as he not only released his first policy plank in ages, but also showed that he's doing better than both Saganash and Ashton on the fund-raising front. But while I'd probably take an even-money bet that Singh won't be in last place on the first ballot, these rankings are still based on the likelihood of victory - and there seems to be little chance of Singh assembling enough down-ballot support to come out on top.
Leadership 2012 Roundup
Thanks to an end-of-week conference it's been a few days since I've done a general roundup on the NDP leadership race. And based on the pace of activity, it looks like we're into the home stretch as candidates enter the last couple of weeks in which to sign up new members.
- Niki Ashton unveiled the support of MP Carol Hughes before participating in the National Student Day of Action.
- Nathan Cullen earned a column's worth of discussion from Chris Selley, albeit with the conclusion that his electoral co-operation plan likely won't fly.
- Paul Dewar unveiled a plan for women's equality, then used the profile of the leadership campaign to host a fund-raiser for locked-out Caterpillar workers in London just before the plant's closure was announced.
- Thomas Mulcair won endorsements from UFCW Canada and Howard Hampton.
- Peggy Nash released policies on post-secondary education (featuring both dedicated transfer payments and reduced interest on student loans) and northern issues. And she also launched a slick video to boot.
- Romeo Saganash set out his plan to work toward peace in the Middle East - earning plenty of points for ambition in the process.
- Martin Singh released his environmental policy, featuring a noteworthy choice to implement a carbon-pricing system without offsets.
- And finally, Brian Topp unveiled his plan to build the NDP (with a particular focus on increasing participation at all levels of the party), while also warning against trying to outshout the Cons.
[Edit: added second Topp link.]
- Niki Ashton unveiled the support of MP Carol Hughes before participating in the National Student Day of Action.
- Nathan Cullen earned a column's worth of discussion from Chris Selley, albeit with the conclusion that his electoral co-operation plan likely won't fly.
- Paul Dewar unveiled a plan for women's equality, then used the profile of the leadership campaign to host a fund-raiser for locked-out Caterpillar workers in London just before the plant's closure was announced.
- Thomas Mulcair won endorsements from UFCW Canada and Howard Hampton.
- Peggy Nash released policies on post-secondary education (featuring both dedicated transfer payments and reduced interest on student loans) and northern issues. And she also launched a slick video to boot.
- Romeo Saganash set out his plan to work toward peace in the Middle East - earning plenty of points for ambition in the process.
- Martin Singh released his environmental policy, featuring a noteworthy choice to implement a carbon-pricing system without offsets.
- And finally, Brian Topp unveiled his plan to build the NDP (with a particular focus on increasing participation at all levels of the party), while also warning against trying to outshout the Cons.
[Edit: added second Topp link.]
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - January 29, 2012
With one exception, the NDP's Halifax leadership debate looks largely to have largely reinforced the previous positions of its leadership candidates. But there could be plenty more changes in store if a few developments from the debate hold up in the weeks to come.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
As the front-runner, Mulcair naturally took the most fire in the question-period format (which incidentally made for a highly worthwhile addition to the debate). And Mulcair's response to Paul Dewar - featuring both righteous indignation and substance without going over the top - offered a nice hint as to what we can expect when he faces outside challenges.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
The one problem for Nash in today's debate was that she followed up Mulcair's question to Nathan Cullen with a less-effective version of the same concern about his non-competition plan. But otherwise she again more than held her own on both content and style.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Topp has eliminated a few of the tics that made for difficult viewing in the first official debate, signalling some positive progress throughout the campaign. But perhaps the best gift he received today was Romeo Saganash's question about income taxes: where Saganash had positioned himself to Topp's left on a number of issues, the comparison between Saganash worrying what the Cons would say about income tax increases and Topp's response as to the need to win the argument in the general public made for an ideal moment to highlight Topp's central message.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
In the absence of any stumbles ahead of him Dewar doesn't move up the rankings this week. But he delivered a far more passionate English performance than we've seen from him in previous debates - and if he can keep that up in debates to come, he'll have a much better chance of convincing members the party can allow some time for him to develop his skill in French.
5. Romeo Saganash (5)
The flip side of the above comment on Topp is that Saganash may have missed out on a path which held out plenty of promise for him. And while I still see at least some available path for Saganash to emerge victorious, it figures to a much more complex route if he can't rely on "go left" to make room for himself.
6. Nathan Cullen (7)
Yes, Cullen once again showed far more humour than any of the other candidates in today's debate to go with at worst a draw in commanding the crowd. But the outside factor which may actually help him most is that his central proposal is becoming less and less plausible.
With plenty of (however inaccurate) headlines trumpeting a Lib revival, there doesn't seem to be much reason for leadership voters to see a willing partner for non-competition. And that may make it easier for members to evaluate Cullen on his personality and other policy proposals.
7. Niki Ashton (6)
Her drop in the rankings is more the result of another strong performance by Cullen than any problem with Ashton. But it's not clear she'll have much chance to move up if the rest of the campaign is largely framed around a debate format where she seems to be having trouble standing out from the crowd.
8. Martin Singh (8)
Once again, the big question for Singh is whether he's willing to move past his few areas of policy specialization toward more general discussions. And while he was plenty comfortable in front of a hometown crowd, he still stuck more to his areas of familiarity than he can afford to if he wants to overtake any of his competitors.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
As the front-runner, Mulcair naturally took the most fire in the question-period format (which incidentally made for a highly worthwhile addition to the debate). And Mulcair's response to Paul Dewar - featuring both righteous indignation and substance without going over the top - offered a nice hint as to what we can expect when he faces outside challenges.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
The one problem for Nash in today's debate was that she followed up Mulcair's question to Nathan Cullen with a less-effective version of the same concern about his non-competition plan. But otherwise she again more than held her own on both content and style.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Topp has eliminated a few of the tics that made for difficult viewing in the first official debate, signalling some positive progress throughout the campaign. But perhaps the best gift he received today was Romeo Saganash's question about income taxes: where Saganash had positioned himself to Topp's left on a number of issues, the comparison between Saganash worrying what the Cons would say about income tax increases and Topp's response as to the need to win the argument in the general public made for an ideal moment to highlight Topp's central message.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
In the absence of any stumbles ahead of him Dewar doesn't move up the rankings this week. But he delivered a far more passionate English performance than we've seen from him in previous debates - and if he can keep that up in debates to come, he'll have a much better chance of convincing members the party can allow some time for him to develop his skill in French.
5. Romeo Saganash (5)
The flip side of the above comment on Topp is that Saganash may have missed out on a path which held out plenty of promise for him. And while I still see at least some available path for Saganash to emerge victorious, it figures to a much more complex route if he can't rely on "go left" to make room for himself.
6. Nathan Cullen (7)
Yes, Cullen once again showed far more humour than any of the other candidates in today's debate to go with at worst a draw in commanding the crowd. But the outside factor which may actually help him most is that his central proposal is becoming less and less plausible.
With plenty of (however inaccurate) headlines trumpeting a Lib revival, there doesn't seem to be much reason for leadership voters to see a willing partner for non-competition. And that may make it easier for members to evaluate Cullen on his personality and other policy proposals.
7. Niki Ashton (6)
Her drop in the rankings is more the result of another strong performance by Cullen than any problem with Ashton. But it's not clear she'll have much chance to move up if the rest of the campaign is largely framed around a debate format where she seems to be having trouble standing out from the crowd.
8. Martin Singh (8)
Once again, the big question for Singh is whether he's willing to move past his few areas of policy specialization toward more general discussions. And while he was plenty comfortable in front of a hometown crowd, he still stuck more to his areas of familiarity than he can afford to if he wants to overtake any of his competitors.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - January 22, 2012
For all that's happened over the past week, the ultimate result has been largely to confirm the relative placement that the NDP's leadership candidates have faced all along. And in cutting through the increasing volume of activity, this week's rankings look to be drifting back toward the first set of candidate perceptions from November - with the exception of one key development that seems to have been confirmed over the last week.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Lest there be any doubt, an outburst of media kvetching over Mulcair's dual citizenship doesn't figure to affect his standing within the leadership race - and indeed, the prospect of outside attacks may be just what he needs to get other candidates' supporters working in his defence. But it's somewhat more worrisome for Mulcair that at least one competitor has somewhat validated the concern for NDP members by echoing the theme.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Because of the need to discount for her home-field advantage, I couldn't see Nash's debate performance as hugely improving her position. But she did more than enough to maintain her position as the most likely challenger to Mulcair on a final ballot.
3. Brian Topp (4)
This week nicely encapsulated the entire campaign for Topp. His debate performance was strong in substance but lacking in audience engagement; he pulled off an effective policy release that doesn't seem likely to advance his cause all that much; and he unveiled a couple of big-name endorsements, but in the process raised questions as to whether he's reached anybody beyond his pool of immediate colleagues. But he does still climb in the rankings thanks to...
4. Paul Dewar (3)
The main question for Dewar remains his ability to communicate in French. And his Toronto forum performance wasn't a positive sign on that front, as the outcome of what was supposed to have been a concerted effort to improve in his second language over the holiday break came up wanting. At best, one might theorize that more frequent debates will ultimately help Dewar find his sea legs - but it has to be worrisome for a candidate's best hope to involve getting comfortable in a language during the home stretch of a leadership campaign.
5. Romeo Saganash (6)
In terms of visible organization, Saganash would rank a couple of spots below this. But he's put in some highly visible work to get in front of audiences beyond his core supporters - and as long as he's within shouting distance of the candidates below him for organizational strength, Saganash's resume and personal story still figure to give him the upper hand.
6. Niki Ashton (5)
Ashton didn't stand out from the crowd this past week as she did in the first official debate. And at this stage of the campaign, she can't afford to blend into the background.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
Yes, his new caucus endorsements help. But it's still an open question as to where Cullen can possibly accumulate later-ballot support - and the Toronto response to his cooperation proposal signals that there's still plenty of concern about his primary message.
8. Martin Singh (8)
One final note that I didn't include about the Toronto forum was that Singh's performance was much improved from the first official debate: rather than sticking as carefully to his chosen themes he engaged with the other candidates on a variety of issues, and he seems to have received a positive response in doing so. Which still leaves him a long way from contention, but raises the possibility that he could assemble enough later-ballot support to play a major role at the convention.
[Edit: fixed formatting.]
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Lest there be any doubt, an outburst of media kvetching over Mulcair's dual citizenship doesn't figure to affect his standing within the leadership race - and indeed, the prospect of outside attacks may be just what he needs to get other candidates' supporters working in his defence. But it's somewhat more worrisome for Mulcair that at least one competitor has somewhat validated the concern for NDP members by echoing the theme.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Because of the need to discount for her home-field advantage, I couldn't see Nash's debate performance as hugely improving her position. But she did more than enough to maintain her position as the most likely challenger to Mulcair on a final ballot.
3. Brian Topp (4)
This week nicely encapsulated the entire campaign for Topp. His debate performance was strong in substance but lacking in audience engagement; he pulled off an effective policy release that doesn't seem likely to advance his cause all that much; and he unveiled a couple of big-name endorsements, but in the process raised questions as to whether he's reached anybody beyond his pool of immediate colleagues. But he does still climb in the rankings thanks to...
4. Paul Dewar (3)
The main question for Dewar remains his ability to communicate in French. And his Toronto forum performance wasn't a positive sign on that front, as the outcome of what was supposed to have been a concerted effort to improve in his second language over the holiday break came up wanting. At best, one might theorize that more frequent debates will ultimately help Dewar find his sea legs - but it has to be worrisome for a candidate's best hope to involve getting comfortable in a language during the home stretch of a leadership campaign.
5. Romeo Saganash (6)
In terms of visible organization, Saganash would rank a couple of spots below this. But he's put in some highly visible work to get in front of audiences beyond his core supporters - and as long as he's within shouting distance of the candidates below him for organizational strength, Saganash's resume and personal story still figure to give him the upper hand.
6. Niki Ashton (5)
Ashton didn't stand out from the crowd this past week as she did in the first official debate. And at this stage of the campaign, she can't afford to blend into the background.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
Yes, his new caucus endorsements help. But it's still an open question as to where Cullen can possibly accumulate later-ballot support - and the Toronto response to his cooperation proposal signals that there's still plenty of concern about his primary message.
8. Martin Singh (8)
One final note that I didn't include about the Toronto forum was that Singh's performance was much improved from the first official debate: rather than sticking as carefully to his chosen themes he engaged with the other candidates on a variety of issues, and he seems to have received a positive response in doing so. Which still leaves him a long way from contention, but raises the possibility that he could assemble enough later-ballot support to play a major role at the convention.
[Edit: fixed formatting.]
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - January 15, 2012
At the outset of this week's rankings, I'll offer a reminder that the below is intended to reflect my analysis as to how likely any given candidate is to win the NDP's leadership race, rather than my own personal ballot or any other endorsement of one candidate over another. And yes, the reasons for that disclaimer will soon become apparent.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
To the extent Mulcair was once seen as pulling away from the field, that impression looks to have evaporated. But relatively little news is good news for a favourite - and Mulcair has at worst lived up to expectations since emerging as the front-runner.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
No, her pot-luck event last weekend didn't radically transform the race. But Nash too has presented a solid mix of policy proposals and endorsements while avoiding any damage based on the increased scrutiny that comes with a top-tier position. And while I don't entirely buy the theory that she would be the favourite to win if a vote were held today, she'd definitely have a fighting chance.
3. Paul Dewar (4)
Dewar made what figures to be his big move in the race this week, unveiling the endorsements of Linda Duncan and Charlie Angus. And the effect is to give him what may be the most impressive geographic footprint of any candidate in the race at the moment: Duncan and Angus are the party's leading figures from urban Alberta and rural Ontario respectively, and if they can add a substantial amount of their regional support to Dewar's existing base in B.C., Manitoba and urban Ontario then Dewar may be able to find his way onto the final ballot.
4. Brian Topp (3)
I attended Topp's Regina meet-and-greet this week, making for the main piece of personal observation factored into this week's rankings. And contrary to what the drop would suggest for those who didn't read the disclaimer at the beginning of this post, Topp's strong admonition to ensure that an NDP government focuses on a more equal Canada and strategic acumen as to how to get there likely pushed him up among my own personal preferences.
But the problem for Topp is that it's not clear he's reaching as many members as he needs to. The turnout for the meet-and-greet was respectable in pure numbers, but was also about as elderly and MLA-heavy as any I've seen at an NDP event in quite some time. And while there may be some excuse in the fact that Niki Ashton was holding an event the same evening, it can't be a good sign for Topp's campaign if his insider appeal is failing to extend far beyond his pool of former colleagues.
5. Niki Ashton (5)
By all accounts Ashton had another successful Saskatchewan swing this week. But the big question will be whether she can add some additional support from Ontario and Quebec to what's looking like a very west-heavy campaign.
6. Romeo Saganash (6)
His campaign has still been on the quiet side, but Saganash is making the rounds in Ontario - which should at least help make sure he has some path available for an increasingly steep climb.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
While the main issue for Cullen is still the question of whether members will accept his plan for electoral cooperation, Dewar's endorsements this week also raise the question of whether Cullen has much support from outside British Columbia to highlight. And the problems may be related, since a perception that nobody else dares to sign on to the cooperation plan may well make it more of a liability than it might have been otherwise.
8. Martin Singh (8)
There against doesn't seem to be much to report from Singh's campaign this week - and while we can never rule out some progress under the radar, that doesn't look like a great sign for the candidate with the most to prove.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
To the extent Mulcair was once seen as pulling away from the field, that impression looks to have evaporated. But relatively little news is good news for a favourite - and Mulcair has at worst lived up to expectations since emerging as the front-runner.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
No, her pot-luck event last weekend didn't radically transform the race. But Nash too has presented a solid mix of policy proposals and endorsements while avoiding any damage based on the increased scrutiny that comes with a top-tier position. And while I don't entirely buy the theory that she would be the favourite to win if a vote were held today, she'd definitely have a fighting chance.
3. Paul Dewar (4)
Dewar made what figures to be his big move in the race this week, unveiling the endorsements of Linda Duncan and Charlie Angus. And the effect is to give him what may be the most impressive geographic footprint of any candidate in the race at the moment: Duncan and Angus are the party's leading figures from urban Alberta and rural Ontario respectively, and if they can add a substantial amount of their regional support to Dewar's existing base in B.C., Manitoba and urban Ontario then Dewar may be able to find his way onto the final ballot.
4. Brian Topp (3)
I attended Topp's Regina meet-and-greet this week, making for the main piece of personal observation factored into this week's rankings. And contrary to what the drop would suggest for those who didn't read the disclaimer at the beginning of this post, Topp's strong admonition to ensure that an NDP government focuses on a more equal Canada and strategic acumen as to how to get there likely pushed him up among my own personal preferences.
But the problem for Topp is that it's not clear he's reaching as many members as he needs to. The turnout for the meet-and-greet was respectable in pure numbers, but was also about as elderly and MLA-heavy as any I've seen at an NDP event in quite some time. And while there may be some excuse in the fact that Niki Ashton was holding an event the same evening, it can't be a good sign for Topp's campaign if his insider appeal is failing to extend far beyond his pool of former colleagues.
5. Niki Ashton (5)
By all accounts Ashton had another successful Saskatchewan swing this week. But the big question will be whether she can add some additional support from Ontario and Quebec to what's looking like a very west-heavy campaign.
6. Romeo Saganash (6)
His campaign has still been on the quiet side, but Saganash is making the rounds in Ontario - which should at least help make sure he has some path available for an increasingly steep climb.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
While the main issue for Cullen is still the question of whether members will accept his plan for electoral cooperation, Dewar's endorsements this week also raise the question of whether Cullen has much support from outside British Columbia to highlight. And the problems may be related, since a perception that nobody else dares to sign on to the cooperation plan may well make it more of a liability than it might have been otherwise.
8. Martin Singh (8)
There against doesn't seem to be much to report from Singh's campaign this week - and while we can never rule out some progress under the radar, that doesn't look like a great sign for the candidate with the most to prove.
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - January 8, 2012
There isn't anything new in the candidate rankings for this week, as the latest developments have generally left the NDP's leadership contenders in substantially the same position they've occupied for some time. But there may be some major changes in the works over the next little while - so let's look at how those might come to pass.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
While Mulcair's western swing this week was by all accounts a productive one, it also featured only a couple of relatively small endorsements for a candidate who looms as a favourite at this stage of the race. And it'll be worth watching whether Mulcair can add more and bigger names to his current support base in a region with a disproportionately high number of NDP members - lest he otherwise fall behind...
2. Peggy Nash (2)
The good news for Nash is that she seems to have earned a place as the leading challenger to Mulcair. The bad news, though, is that she's now facing the extra scrutiny that comes from a front-runner's role - and after holding the #2 position in these rankings from day one, she could soon move in either direction depending on her performance under that increased pressure.
3. Brian Topp (3)
His campaign still looks to be based more on insider support and media savvy than much of a grassroots presence, and his appearance in Saskatoon this week only seems to have reinforced that impression. But Topp more than anybody may be at the mercy of his competitors: a major stumble for Nash may offer his lone path into a top-two position, while a strong showing in French by Dewar in the weeks to come could drop Topp further.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
Dewar has looked strong on the organizational front from day one, and that sense has only been strengthened with an ad release and plenty of other effective connection-building over the last few weeks. But the lack of any debate since early December has prevented Dewar from answering the key question members figure to have about his campaign.
5. Niki Ashton (5)
Ashton stays ahead of Saganash thanks to a well-placed media response to Sylvia Bashevkin's commentary on the NDP's female candidates. But it's still not clear whether she'll have much of a chance to prove herself as capable of offering s substantive alternative to the extent members end up seeing the race mostly through soundbites and press releases.
6. Romeo Saganash (6)
Saganash's increased Twitter activity makes for a potentially significant sign of life in a campaign which has been far quieter than any other than Singh's. But how much of that broadcast messaging can translate into the support Saganash will need to stay on the leadership ballot?
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
From the point when Cullen first introduced his co-operation strategy, I've figured he wouldn't have any choice but to see through the idea. But I have to wonder whether at least a subtle retrenchment - for example, suggesting that he'd allow the NDP to vote as a national party at a future convention before following through with it - might be in order before the next set of debates. Because for now, the sense that a vote for Cullen is also a vote for embracing the Liberals looks to be the crucial limiting factor for a candidate who has plenty going for him.
8. Martin Singh (8)
After going quiet for a month, Singh looks to have made some strong efforts to win over urban support this past week. But he hasn't introduced anything new by way of policy or vision, and it still remains to be seen whether he'll present a message broad enough to win over later-ballot support.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
While Mulcair's western swing this week was by all accounts a productive one, it also featured only a couple of relatively small endorsements for a candidate who looms as a favourite at this stage of the race. And it'll be worth watching whether Mulcair can add more and bigger names to his current support base in a region with a disproportionately high number of NDP members - lest he otherwise fall behind...
2. Peggy Nash (2)
The good news for Nash is that she seems to have earned a place as the leading challenger to Mulcair. The bad news, though, is that she's now facing the extra scrutiny that comes from a front-runner's role - and after holding the #2 position in these rankings from day one, she could soon move in either direction depending on her performance under that increased pressure.
3. Brian Topp (3)
His campaign still looks to be based more on insider support and media savvy than much of a grassroots presence, and his appearance in Saskatoon this week only seems to have reinforced that impression. But Topp more than anybody may be at the mercy of his competitors: a major stumble for Nash may offer his lone path into a top-two position, while a strong showing in French by Dewar in the weeks to come could drop Topp further.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
Dewar has looked strong on the organizational front from day one, and that sense has only been strengthened with an ad release and plenty of other effective connection-building over the last few weeks. But the lack of any debate since early December has prevented Dewar from answering the key question members figure to have about his campaign.
5. Niki Ashton (5)
Ashton stays ahead of Saganash thanks to a well-placed media response to Sylvia Bashevkin's commentary on the NDP's female candidates. But it's still not clear whether she'll have much of a chance to prove herself as capable of offering s substantive alternative to the extent members end up seeing the race mostly through soundbites and press releases.
6. Romeo Saganash (6)
Saganash's increased Twitter activity makes for a potentially significant sign of life in a campaign which has been far quieter than any other than Singh's. But how much of that broadcast messaging can translate into the support Saganash will need to stay on the leadership ballot?
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
From the point when Cullen first introduced his co-operation strategy, I've figured he wouldn't have any choice but to see through the idea. But I have to wonder whether at least a subtle retrenchment - for example, suggesting that he'd allow the NDP to vote as a national party at a future convention before following through with it - might be in order before the next set of debates. Because for now, the sense that a vote for Cullen is also a vote for embracing the Liberals looks to be the crucial limiting factor for a candidate who has plenty going for him.
8. Martin Singh (8)
After going quiet for a month, Singh looks to have made some strong efforts to win over urban support this past week. But he hasn't introduced anything new by way of policy or vision, and it still remains to be seen whether he'll present a message broad enough to win over later-ballot support.
Saturday, January 07, 2012
Leadership 2012 Roundup
Not surprisingly, the last week has seen the NDP's leadership candidates push their campaigns into high gear for the last couple of months of the race. So let's take a quick look at what's developed in the first week of 2012.
- Niki Ashton spoke to Andy Radia about her definition of "new politics" - noting in particular that it means building on the NDP's existing principles rather than discarding them:
- Paul Dewar rolled out the endorsements of NUPGE National President James Clancy and BC MLA Mable Elmore.
- Thomas Mulcair made an Alberta swing through Calgary, Red Deer and Edmonton, unveiling the endorsement of former AFL president Reg Baskin and earning positive reviews from David Climenhaga. And he then added BC MLA Leonard Krog's endorsement today.
- Peggy Nash won the endorsements of Sarah Polley and MP Dany Morin in advance of what she's touting as a major national event tomorrow.
- Romeo Saganash unveiled a blog post focusing on how the NDP can do better for families than the Harper Cons, while also seeing a flurry of Twitter activity on CETA and the economy.
- Martin Singh earned a Hill Times article pointing out that his base looks to be concentrated in the Sikh community across Canada rather than in the Atlantic region.
- And rounding out the candidate activity review, Brian Topp unveiled another big Saskatchewan endorsement, this time from former premier Lorne Calvert. But his efforts to win over the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix look to have been at best a modest success, as one has to wonder how proud his supporters can be of Les MacPherson's column in particular (featuring such prominent messages as "almost bearable" and "I probably will never vote for the federal NDP") along with an editorial that doesn't say much about Topp personally.
Meanwhile, plenty of candidates made news appearances or noise of their own on the economy, particularly when it came to the Electro-Motive lockout.
On the pundit side, Sylvia Bashevkin commented on the need for Ashton and Nash to offer some substantive difference from their competitors. [Update: And Ashton justly responded by pointing out the need for substance applies equally to all candidates.] John Ibbitson is the latest pundit to frame his own lack of knowledge about what's going on as a criticism of the NDP and its leadership process. And Justin Ling reviews the policies unveiled so far in the leadership campaign.
- Niki Ashton spoke to Andy Radia about her definition of "new politics" - noting in particular that it means building on the NDP's existing principles rather than discarding them:
I believe the [NDP] needs to use its principles as a guide; principles that led us to the historic success that we have today as official opposition.- Nathan Cullen questioned the ethics of the Cons' shilling for the oil industry when climate change poses a threat to people around the world.
[In the last election] we saw a record number of Canadians that haven't voted NDP before or hadn't gotten involved in politics before come out and respond to Jack Layton's message and our message.
And I think that's a sign—if we continue to build on who we are as a party and really reach out to regions where we have grown tremendously, like Quebec and Western Canada, we will continue to grow.
- Paul Dewar rolled out the endorsements of NUPGE National President James Clancy and BC MLA Mable Elmore.
- Thomas Mulcair made an Alberta swing through Calgary, Red Deer and Edmonton, unveiling the endorsement of former AFL president Reg Baskin and earning positive reviews from David Climenhaga. And he then added BC MLA Leonard Krog's endorsement today.
- Peggy Nash won the endorsements of Sarah Polley and MP Dany Morin in advance of what she's touting as a major national event tomorrow.
- Romeo Saganash unveiled a blog post focusing on how the NDP can do better for families than the Harper Cons, while also seeing a flurry of Twitter activity on CETA and the economy.
- Martin Singh earned a Hill Times article pointing out that his base looks to be concentrated in the Sikh community across Canada rather than in the Atlantic region.
- And rounding out the candidate activity review, Brian Topp unveiled another big Saskatchewan endorsement, this time from former premier Lorne Calvert. But his efforts to win over the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix look to have been at best a modest success, as one has to wonder how proud his supporters can be of Les MacPherson's column in particular (featuring such prominent messages as "almost bearable" and "I probably will never vote for the federal NDP") along with an editorial that doesn't say much about Topp personally.
Meanwhile, plenty of candidates made news appearances or noise of their own on the economy, particularly when it came to the Electro-Motive lockout.
On the pundit side, Sylvia Bashevkin commented on the need for Ashton and Nash to offer some substantive difference from their competitors. [Update: And Ashton justly responded by pointing out the need for substance applies equally to all candidates.] John Ibbitson is the latest pundit to frame his own lack of knowledge about what's going on as a criticism of the NDP and its leadership process. And Justin Ling reviews the policies unveiled so far in the leadership campaign.
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