There isn't anything new in the candidate rankings for this week, as the latest developments have generally left the NDP's leadership contenders in substantially the same position they've occupied for some time. But there may be some major changes in the works over the next little while - so let's look at how those might come to pass.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
While Mulcair's western swing this week was by all accounts a productive one, it also featured only a couple of relatively small endorsements for a candidate who looms as a favourite at this stage of the race. And it'll be worth watching whether Mulcair can add more and bigger names to his current support base in a region with a disproportionately high number of NDP members - lest he otherwise fall behind...
2. Peggy Nash (2)
The good news for Nash is that she seems to have earned a place as the leading challenger to Mulcair. The bad news, though, is that she's now facing the extra scrutiny that comes from a front-runner's role - and after holding the #2 position in these rankings from day one, she could soon move in either direction depending on her performance under that increased pressure.
3. Brian Topp (3)
His campaign still looks to be based more on insider support and media savvy than much of a grassroots presence, and his appearance in Saskatoon this week only seems to have reinforced that impression. But Topp more than anybody may be at the mercy of his competitors: a major stumble for Nash may offer his lone path into a top-two position, while a strong showing in French by Dewar in the weeks to come could drop Topp further.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
Dewar has looked strong on the organizational front from day one, and that sense has only been strengthened with an ad release and plenty of other effective connection-building over the last few weeks. But the lack of any debate since early December has prevented Dewar from answering the key question members figure to have about his campaign.
5. Niki Ashton (5)
Ashton stays ahead of Saganash thanks to a well-placed media response to Sylvia Bashevkin's commentary on the NDP's female candidates. But it's still not clear whether she'll have much of a chance to prove herself as capable of offering s substantive alternative to the extent members end up seeing the race mostly through soundbites and press releases.
6. Romeo Saganash (6)
Saganash's increased Twitter activity makes for a potentially significant sign of life in a campaign which has been far quieter than any other than Singh's. But how much of that broadcast messaging can translate into the support Saganash will need to stay on the leadership ballot?
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
From the point when Cullen first introduced his co-operation strategy, I've figured he wouldn't have any choice but to see through the idea. But I have to wonder whether at least a subtle retrenchment - for example, suggesting that he'd allow the NDP to vote as a national party at a future convention before following through with it - might be in order before the next set of debates. Because for now, the sense that a vote for Cullen is also a vote for embracing the Liberals looks to be the crucial limiting factor for a candidate who has plenty going for him.
8. Martin Singh (8)
After going quiet for a month, Singh looks to have made some strong efforts to win over urban support this past week. But he hasn't introduced anything new by way of policy or vision, and it still remains to be seen whether he'll present a message broad enough to win over later-ballot support.
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