Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - February 12, 2012

It's undoubtedly been an eventful seven days in the NDP's leadership campaign - and one of the most important weeks of the race is just around the corner as the membership deadline approaches. But does any of the activity change this week's rankings?

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Certainly not at the top. And in fact Mulcair may be breathing a sign of relief after today: a contentious discussion about the Middle East might have been one of the most obvious sources of possible trouble for him, but nothing of the sort materialized in the foreign policy debate.

2. Peggy Nash (2)

I didn't see today's performance as one of her better ones, but it was still more than enough to position her as the primary alternative to Mulcair. And the Quebec MPs she's adding to her endorsement list may go a long way in holding off Topp as the campaign progresses.

3. Brian Topp (3)

Meanwhile, nobody looks to have missed more opportunities to try to shake up the race than Topp. But he did deliver a solid all-around performance - and it could be that he's reasonably concluded that it's time to start building up general down-ballot support rather than serving as the campaign's agitator.

4. Paul Dewar (4)

The French-language debate had potential to send Dewar's ranking in either direction. But instead, he held his own without hugely impressing - meaning that he'll stay in the top tier, but still figure to have trouble standing out as the campaign progresses.

5. Nathan Cullen (5)

Another effective debate performance can't push Cullen up the rankings this week. And indeed I have to wonder whether some media perception of momentum will ultimately backfire: it seems to me that the biggest weakness of his co-operation plan is less the Libs' progressive bona fides in government than their actions to keep the Cons in power while in opposition (raising issues about their trustworthiness in recognizing any "clear and present danger" from Stephen Harper or acting to address it), and I have to figure Cullen will face some largely unanswerable questions on that point before long.

6. Niki Ashton (7)

She did extremely well in today's debate, expanding on her previous themes and holding her own on foreign policy issues. But this time the rest of the field mostly matched that performance - and she needs to start recovering ground quickly to have much of a chance of emerging ahead of the field.

7. Martin Singh (8)

Meanwhile, Singh was clearly a cut below the rest of the candidates today, generally failing to stick to the topics presented and having some trouble making an impact even on his choice of replacement topics. But the good news for him is that at the current pace, enough candidates will drop out to leave him alone in first by about mid-2013.