Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings - February 5, 2012

Since it's been a little while, I'll offer another of my periodic caveats that these rankings are intended to reflect my perception as to how likely a particular candidate is to win the NDP's leadership rather than my own preferences. So has anything changed on that front since last week?

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Well, the top of the rankings hasn't changed at all as long as I've been putting together these rankings. And with Mulcair starting to build a national labour base to rival that of any other contender, it may take either a serious scandal shockingly disappointing Quebec membership numbers to drop him from the top position at any point in the campaign.

2. Peggy Nash (2)

And similarly, two smooth policy launches and a strong video release keep Nash comfortably in second place.

3. Brian Topp (3)

Here's where it starts getting somewhat more interesting. I'll leave Topp in the #3 position thanks to a combination of impressive fund-raising numbers and what's continued to be a mostly solid campaign. But the controversy around a campaign worker misrepresenting Romeo Saganash's ability to speak French might offer the start of a dangerous narrative for a candidate whose appeal is based largely on organizational ability.

4. Paul Dewar (4)

By all accounts Dewar has continued to impress over the past couple of weeks. But I'll need to either see him hold his own in French or conclude that Topp is running into an equally significant obstacle in order to move Dewar up.

5. Nathan Cullen (6)

So here's the change for this week. Cullen's organization has matched up nicely with the top tier of candidates from the start of the race in terms of fund-raising, and he's starting to pull in a substantial amount of earned media attention.

6. Romeo Saganash (5)

Meanwhile, Saganash's weak fund-raising numbers look to offer a definitive "no" to the question of whether he had some initial organization strength that wasn't showing up in traditional political channels. And while I still think he has a path to victory, it's getting late to start making up ground compared to his competitors.

7. Niki Ashton (7)

And in fact, Ashton may not be far from eclipsing Saganash - particularly if she has any more MP endorsements left to follow Carol Hughes' nod this week.

8. Martin Singh (8)

This was actually a very positive week for Singh, as he not only released his first policy plank in ages, but also showed that he's doing better than both Saganash and Ashton on the fund-raising front. But while I'd probably take an even-money bet that Singh won't be in last place on the first ballot, these rankings are still based on the likelihood of victory - and there seems to be little chance of Singh assembling enough down-ballot support to come out on top.