Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Niki Ashton

The final candidate to enter the NDP's leadership race was Niki Ashton. And initially, far too many observers seem to have been eager to write off her candidacy. But while there's little doubt that Ashton faces some hurdles in her candidacy, she's done plenty to establish herself as a strong contender since joining the race.

Strengths

While youth and expanded appeal are obvious priorities for all of the NDP's leadership candidate, Ashton is the embodiment of both within the leadership campaign: a young MP from rural Manitoba, thoroughly at ease in both official languages, and sufficiently media-savvy to have won the likes of Michael Moore over to her local causes. And her experience in a political family (as the daughter of a Manitoba cabinet minister who ran an effective leadership campaign of his own just last year) may answer a lot of questions about how she can expect to hold up as a national leader at this stage of her career.

So far, the result has been a deep base of support on the prairies along with scattered endorsements elsewhere. And Ashton's effective first debate performance looks to have caught plenty of pundits by surprise - though the reason for that surprise is itself a problem for Ashton.

Weaknesses

Naturally, Ashton's concerns start with the oft-heard line "if only she were a few years older". And at 29, with a few years of experience in Parliament but not a lot in particularly glamorous critic roles, there's no doubt that Ashton's resume isn't as well-developed as those of some of her competitors.

But the bigger issue for Ashton may be less her past resume than her present policy strength. While she's done well in highlighting specific issues for media consumption, she hasn't dealt with much on more than a bullet-point level either in the leadership race or in the parts of her parliamentary work that have been noticed by the media.

As a result, Ashton may have more to lose than anybody if the leadership race comes down to a soundbite war which doesn't allow her to show enough depth to win over members skeptical based on her age. And to avoid that fate, she may need to take one of her priorities such as foreign ownership and work on developing an intellectual presentation capable of winning over skeptical audiences, rather than limiting herself to introductions to the party base.

Key Indicator

So how will we know if she's succeeded? I'm not sure how many pollsters will be asking questions along the lines of "best prime minister" or competence as compared to their usual first-choice support and favourability numbers. But I'd consider those to be the most important factors for Ashton: if she can compare credibly to the perceived top tier of candidates on those numbers, then she'll have a serious chance to emerge on top.

Key Opponent

Much like most of the middle-tier candidates, Ashton's main hurdle looks to be a more prominent candidate with an overlapping supporter profile: in her case Peggy Nash who looks to have the early lead as both the candidate most effectively pushing for a female leader, and the favourite of the activist left. If Ashton can outlast Nash, then adding those groups to her rural and youth bases would put her in the thick of the race - but that doesn't figure to be an easy task.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: Narrow win based on a combination of strong early activist support and significant later-ballot growth
Worst-case: Early exit as a top-four-based narrative leaves insufficient room for growth

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Peggy Nash

In some ways, Peggy Nash's candidacy is the easiest and most straightforward to analyze among the NDP's leadership contenders. She's drawn her core support from the intersection of the party and the progressive movement, meaning that her initial strength can be set at a level that should keep her on at least a few ballots. But there's still plenty of room for different outcomes depending on Nash's success in reaching beyond that initial base.

Strengths

Nash has always loomed as a superb candidate on paper: a long-time labour activist with loads of experience as a union negotiator and NDP MP and president, all paired with a strong bilingual academic background. And the personal connections she's been able to build over the course of her career give her a strong base of first-choice support.

Moreover, Nash has supplemented those strengths with some effective strategic moves. On the economy, she's spoken mostly about stability and anti-speculation measures - which may give Brian Topp a bit of space to appeal to strong supporters of a greater equality of outcomes, but offers a useful frame of reference to emphasize the link between the Cons' market dogma and the uncertainty Canadians are facing in trying to plan their futures. And in positioning herself compared to the other candidates, Nash has effectively emphasized her place as the most prominent female contender. Which means that there's reason to think Nash can both grow her support in the leadership campaign (as suggested by Skinny Dipper's multi-ballot poll), and set herself up in a strong position for the years to come.

Weaknesses

That said, there are at least a couple of possible gaps in Nash's case for the leadership. While I've found her English presentation to be effective, some observers have raised questions about her ability to engage audiences in both official languages. And there's been some question about her age, particularly if the party's intention is to allow the next leader a second chance to run in 2019 if the 2015 election doesn't result in a change in government.

I'd be surprised if those factors make a dent in Nash's first-choice support. But they might make all the difference to the extent Nash needs to count on down-ballot votes as part of a winning coalition.

Key Indicator

With that in mind, I'd keep a close eye on Nash's net favourability ratings. As long as supporters of other candidates (particularly Topp and Dewar) see her positively, she'll have an obvious path to add the votes she needs on top of her first-choice support. But if there's any significant controversy as to whether Nash can reach beyond her base, then the support she needs could instead find its way to Thomas Mulcair by default.

Key Opponent

Naturally, either of the top two contenders will need to focus on the other. And so Thomas Mulcair's positioning compared to Nash will be highly important: she can't afford either to let him put too much distance between himself and the field, or dictate the considerations members look to in deciding on their down-ballot support.

Plausible Outcomes


Best-case: Multi-ballot win as a consensus candidate
Worst-case: Mid-range finish based on a failure to add to early-ballot support

[Edit: fixed wording.]

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Thomas Mulcair

From the moment Thomas Mulcair chose to run as an NDP candidate for Parliament, he's earned both more scrutiny and more attention than any other NDP represenative other than the leader who recruited him. Indeed, during slow news months there were even highly speculative stories about Mulcair trying to take over the NDP on Jack Layton's watch - though those figure to have had more to do with political gossip columnists wanting to wring some additional use out of their "Liberal infighting" story templates than with any basis in fact.

Naturally, it can be problematic to try to cover today's story by simply substituting new names into coverage from the past. So rather than speculating about an "anybody but" movement or a personality conflict, let's take a look at the factors which figure to be most important in assessing Mulcair's prospects.

Strengths

On paper, there's little doubt that Mulcair has plenty going for him. He alone out of the leadership contenders can point to experience as an elected government official; he spent several years before this May's election as both the NDP's main national voice and liaison on the economy and its all-purpose spokesperson in Quebec. And that experience has shown in Mulcair's forum performances and public appearances.

Moreover, as I've pointed out before, Mulcair is the only leadership candidate who can claim to be a popular household name in one of Canada's major regions. But that leads to the biggest question about Mulcair's campaign.

Weaknesses

By all accounts Mulcair had plenty to do with the NDP's emergence in Quebec - and his organizational work has been reflected in the support he's received from dozens of the party's new MPs. And based on his positive public profile, he's naturally positioned to reap the rewards as new voters join the party.

But it's still a wide open question as to whether Mulcair's work has reached the point where the NDP can develop a level of Quebec membership in line with its vote and seat counts. And while Mulcair has put together at least a nominal organization across the country, his path to the leadership still looks to be a difficult one if he couldn't count on a large number of votes from his home province.

Key Indicator

Which means that the most important factor for Mulcair - or at least the difference between a possible romp and a nail-biter - will be the number of Quebec members signed up in the course of the leadership race.

Even members signed up by other candidates with a strong Quebec presence figure to work to Mulcair's advantage in light of his personal recognition in the province. But if the membership stalls at a number which leaves Quebec with no more influence than any one of B.C., Ontario or the prairies, then Mulcair will be limited to trying to persuade a lot of existing members to join his camp with a relatively modest organization.

Key Opponent

Naturally I'd see Mulcair's key opponent as the one who figures to loom closest among his competitors. But Peggy Nash's relative positioning is all the more important for two reasons: first, Mulcair's plan B looks to involve winning over exactly the urban professional voters who might be expected to gravitate her way; and second, she looks to have a relatively strong chance of winning over second-choice support from other candidates if the race comes down to a contest between her and Mulcair.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: First-ballot victory based on significant Quebec membership growth and strong national support
Worst-case: Little second-choice support leading to elimination on a late ballot

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Martin Singh

With the NDP's leadership contestants otherwise consisting entirely of sitting MPs or media-anointed favourites, Martin Singh has faced a tougher job getting noticed than anybody else in the field. So how has he done trying to start from that disadvantage?

Strengths

So far, the answer looks to be "not badly at all". Singh has presented a couple of detailed policy proposals, albeit with a strong bias toward his own areas of personal experience (though health care and small business aren't exactly a bad place to start in winning over NDP support). In addition, he's held his own in both official languages in the first debate - and perhaps most interestingly he's assembled a more ambitious ground game than many of his opponents, having opened up two campaign offices in the early stages of the race.

Weaknesses

Unfortunately for Singh, while he's done everything possible to get himself into the thick of the race for first-ballot support, it's far from clear where he can go from here. At best Singh may have a realistic chance to be the last Atlantic candidate standing, but it's still doubtful that there's enough support to be won from Robert Chisholm on that front to hold up against the far larger membership numbers elsewhere. And while Singh's policy themes aren't hugely controversial, it's also doubtful that they're going to inspire a lot of second-choice support.

Key Indicator

If there's anything that can radically change Singh's standing in the race, it would be an influx of activity from Canada's Sikh community. And on paper, there's enough potential strength to be found to at least keep Singh on a few ballots, and maybe to propel him toward the top of the race - meaning that Singh's ability to rally his religious community will tell the tale as to whether he can move into the middle tier of candidates.

Key Opponent

As noted above, let's stick with Robert Chisholm as the key factor here - since he looks to be both the candidate closest to Singh in the rankings, and the one whose support has the most obvious reason to shift Singh's way.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: A strong mid-tier finish which positions Singh for a high-level cabinet position in a 2015 government
Worst-case: A bottom-tier finish as an also-ran

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Paul Dewar

From the moment his leadership campaign launched, Paul Dewar has been positioned as a compromise candidate. And prior to the first debate, it's arguable that none of the candidates had done more to improve their standing in the race. But there are now some open questions as to whether Dewar will be able to sail through the campaign unchallenged.

Strengths

There are no doubts about Dewar's political pedigree or experience, with his extensive work in foreign affairs and endorsement from the ousted staff of Rights and Democracy looking like an especially promising basis for comparison to a government that's gone out of its way to embarrass Canada abroad.

Moreover, Dewar's campaign has been effective in turning his pluses into some of the most positive coverage the campaign has seen. And he seems to have impressed a decent number of members while making the rounds this fall.

Weaknesses

But Dewar's middling performance in the first official debate points to a couple of potential pitfalls. Most obviously, his ability to communicate in French isn't up to par - and while it's within the realm of possibility that Dewar could improve over the course of the leadership campaign, it will take some substantial work to shake the first impression.

Equally importantly, though, the exchanges with Brian Topp that made for a headline story coming out of the first debate suggest that Dewar won't be able to come up the middle without being substantially tested by other candidates. And that means Dewar's campaign will face far more of a challenge in defending an "everybody's second choice" brand without alienating supporters of the candidates who are looking to attack it.

Key Indicator

Fortunately, it should be fairly easy to determine whether Dewar is succeeding in that task by taking a look at his net favourability ratings as the campaign progresses. Either a lack of positive impressions or an excess of negative ones could doom the compromise candidate strategy - while a generally positive view of Dewar figures to be the key to his overcoming any deficit he faces on early ballots.

Key Opponent

While I've pointed out that Dewar looks to be the key opponent for Topp, the converse doesn't look to be true. Instead, it's entirely plausible that Dewar could end up behind Topp on a couple of ballots then make his way to the front of the pack - as long as he can find his way ahead of Peggy Nash, whose supporters are likely to be fairly suspicious of Topp's pitch as a progressive spokesman if there's another alternative on the ballot.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: Later-ballot win as compromise candidate
Worst-case: Middle-of-the-pack finish as second-choice support doesn't materialize

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Nathan Cullen

Nathan Cullen was the third candidate to join the NDP's leadership race. And initially, he figured to be a strong contender to win over soft support within the party as the campaign progressed.

Strengths

After all, Cullen's bio includes experience as a successful critic or committee chair on issues ranging from the environment to resources to ethics. In his home riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley, he's perfected a strategy of uniting the interest in protecting nature shared by hunters, fishers, First Nations citizens and environmentalists - offering a distinctive and potentially-effective template to build the NDP in rural areas. And he's a charismatic, tri-lingual speaker with a fairly strong profile developed over seven years as an MP.

Weaknesses

But then there's the elephant in the room. Cullen chose to launch his leadership campaign with a call for pre-election cooperation with the Liberals. And the downside of that strategy has been obvious ever since, as plenty of NDP members who are fans of Cullen's other traits have moved him to the bottom of their rankings as a result.

So how can we tell whether Cullen can overcome that alienation of NDP members who don't see Liberal MPs as an acceptable substitute for building the party in 308 ridings?

Key Indicator

Well, there are a couple of constituencies who would seemingly offer some counterbalance to that effect, consisting of both some segment of the NDP's membership, and the nominally non-partisan groups who have launched "strategic" voting efforts in the past few election cycles. And their support is a must for Cullen.

But I'd think the clearest indicator for Cullen will involve his reaching one step further: in order to assemble the early-ballot support he needs to have a chance of emerging victorious, he'll need some organizational strength from other parties working in support of his cooperation strategy. With the possible exception of Elizabeth May, I wouldn't expect that to consist of public expressions of support - but if Cullen can't get some Lib MPs concerned about their seats to at least tacitly approve of their supporters joining the NDP to give Cullen a boost, then he doesn't seem to have much chance of positioning himself where he needs to in order to win the leadership.

Key Opponent

And that positioning will make for an awfully high hurdle, as the competing candidate whose supporters might most plausibly rally around Cullen is Thomas Mulcair - the presumptive favourite and former provincial Liberal cabinet minister (albeit in Quebec's radically different political dynamic) who's made his own appeal to look far beyond current party affiliations in building the NDP for the future. Based on that campaign strategy and his relatively centrist positioning, Mulcair's supporters look to be easily the most likely to consider choosing Cullen as a second choice. But it'll be a major surprise if Cullen can position himself to force them to move off their primary option.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: Late-ballot win based on unifying a nonpartisan "unite-the-left" movement
Worst-case: Middle- to bottom-tier finish as NDP activists reject pre-election deals

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Romeo Saganash

Romeo Saganash was the second candidate to enter the NDP's leadership race, and remains one of the contenders with a plausible path to a strong victory. But how likely is it that Saganash can reach that result?

Strengths

On paper, there isn't another candidate in the race with a personal story that holds a candle to Saganash's, both in general and as a contrast to the governing party the NDP needs to challenge. Saganash is a residential school survivor looking to highlight Cree values while the Cons work to dismantle any trace of communal life; he's a trail-blazer in First Nations accomplishment seeking to lead a party that's similarly working to achieve unprecedented success; he's an experienced negotiator preaching constructive engagement in the wake of the most divisive federal government in recent memory. And that compelling personal narrative makes Saganash the candidate with the most potential to carry a transformational message through the leadership campaign.

And as an added bonus, Saganash has shown enough personal toughness to work through a racial appeal by his Bloc competitor in May's general election.

Weaknesses

But a candidate needs to be able to convert theoretical strengths into actual popular support. And Saganash seems to have some distance yet to travel on that front.

To date, the concerns about Saganash have been based on relatively minor issues like a momentary misstep on sovereignty and an unimpressive English-language performance in the party's first debate. But the broader question facing his campaign is whether he's in fact sending a message of change strongly enough to set himself apart from the field - as Saganash's limited history in the NDP means he'll need to bring in a large amount of outside support to reach the upper tier of candidates.

Key Indicator

With that in mind, I'd keep a particularly close eye on Saganash's level of popular recognition. As long as he's perceived as just one of the pack, he likely doesn't have much of a path to victory - but if enough of the general public gets to know him as a household name, then that likely signals that he's managed to develop enough of a profile to bring in the outside support he needs.

Key Opponent

While Saganash hasn't yet shown a lot of focus on a transformational message, Niki Ashton has been quite consciously presenting exactly that. And the interplay between Saganash and Ashton will be fascinating as the campaign progresses: the two share similar bases of support (northern and First Nations organizations to go with a strong appeal to younger and newer voters) and will almost certainly need the other's outreach efforts to contribute to any eventual victory, but Saganash in particular needs to stay ahead of Ashton to benefit from the two candidates' mutually reinforcing themes.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: Early-ballot win based on influx of new voters
Worst-case: Bottom-three finish as campaign fails to gather momentum

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Brian Topp

Let's start my series of NDP leadership candidate profiles with the first to enter the race, and one who's probably inspired more discussion than any other so far: longtime organizer and strategist Brian Topp.

Strengths

Topp's combination of organizational acumen and institutional support has been one of the defining features of the leadership campaign to date: he made himself into a perceived front-runner seemingly out of thin air with a series of early endorsements, and has never stopped earning at least a share of top billing as the campaign has progressed. And all indications are that in addition to having at least a communications-friendly organization, Topp can also hold his own in debating policy.

But Topp's campaign enjoys another potential strength - based partly on smart planning, partly on circumstance - that doesn't seem to have received much attention yet.

As much as Topp's strategy has been based on trying to race immediately to the front of the pack, he's also theoretically positioned better than most to pick up support in the more likely final-ballot matchups. And the main reason is that he figures to be next in line to pick up votes based on most of the other top candidates' strengths.

In a final ballot against Thomas Mulcair, Topp's comparatively left-wing economic stance and his support in the NDP's base would seemingly give him the upper hand in winning over the supporters of Peggy Nash, Paul Dewar and Niki Ashton - whose votes would likely be crucial in a close race. Or conversely, in a two-way contest against one of the stronger non-Quebec contenders Topp would hold an advantage in being able to present himself to supporters of Mulcair and Romeo Saganash as the remaining Quebec native son, while also tacking closer to Mulcair's philosophical leanings than the alternative.

Weaknesses

But those scenarios only come into play if Topp actually makes the final ballot. And that's where things start to get a bit dicey for his campaign.

It's far from clear that Topp's strength among the NDP's institutional leaders extends down to its general membership. And the combination of a controversial early launch, the extra attention that comes from media front-runner status and a relatively chippy campaign has resulted in plenty of voting members being wary of Topp.

Key Indicator

With that in mind, the test of Topp's campaign figures to be his general favourability rating by the time of the March vote.

Topp has already made sure that members will know his name and at least some of his policy positions. But if he can't use the months between now and March to build up what Warren Kinsella describes as the "Hell of a Guy" factor in addition to that strategic base - both to earn enough first-ballot support to stick around until the end, and to keep positive enough impressions among other candidates' supporters to pick up momentum on voting day - then all of Topp's planning will be for naught.

Key Competitor

Lest there be any doubt, it wasn't a coincidence that Topp's more testy exchanges on Sunday were those with Paul Dewar. Dewar has started the campaign as the most likely magnet for the down-ballot support Topp will likely need to stay in the race - and if (as seems entirely possible) the final four candidates in the contest are Mulcair, Nash, Topp and Dewar, then the most difficult hurdle for Topp to overcome may be trying to push Dewar to the bottom of that list to free up all of the down-ballot candidates' supporters.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: First-ballot win based on strong organization
Worst-case: Middle-of-the-pack finish based on limited personal reach