Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Thomas Mulcair

From the moment Thomas Mulcair chose to run as an NDP candidate for Parliament, he's earned both more scrutiny and more attention than any other NDP represenative other than the leader who recruited him. Indeed, during slow news months there were even highly speculative stories about Mulcair trying to take over the NDP on Jack Layton's watch - though those figure to have had more to do with political gossip columnists wanting to wring some additional use out of their "Liberal infighting" story templates than with any basis in fact.

Naturally, it can be problematic to try to cover today's story by simply substituting new names into coverage from the past. So rather than speculating about an "anybody but" movement or a personality conflict, let's take a look at the factors which figure to be most important in assessing Mulcair's prospects.

Strengths

On paper, there's little doubt that Mulcair has plenty going for him. He alone out of the leadership contenders can point to experience as an elected government official; he spent several years before this May's election as both the NDP's main national voice and liaison on the economy and its all-purpose spokesperson in Quebec. And that experience has shown in Mulcair's forum performances and public appearances.

Moreover, as I've pointed out before, Mulcair is the only leadership candidate who can claim to be a popular household name in one of Canada's major regions. But that leads to the biggest question about Mulcair's campaign.

Weaknesses

By all accounts Mulcair had plenty to do with the NDP's emergence in Quebec - and his organizational work has been reflected in the support he's received from dozens of the party's new MPs. And based on his positive public profile, he's naturally positioned to reap the rewards as new voters join the party.

But it's still a wide open question as to whether Mulcair's work has reached the point where the NDP can develop a level of Quebec membership in line with its vote and seat counts. And while Mulcair has put together at least a nominal organization across the country, his path to the leadership still looks to be a difficult one if he couldn't count on a large number of votes from his home province.

Key Indicator

Which means that the most important factor for Mulcair - or at least the difference between a possible romp and a nail-biter - will be the number of Quebec members signed up in the course of the leadership race.

Even members signed up by other candidates with a strong Quebec presence figure to work to Mulcair's advantage in light of his personal recognition in the province. But if the membership stalls at a number which leaves Quebec with no more influence than any one of B.C., Ontario or the prairies, then Mulcair will be limited to trying to persuade a lot of existing members to join his camp with a relatively modest organization.

Key Opponent

Naturally I'd see Mulcair's key opponent as the one who figures to loom closest among his competitors. But Peggy Nash's relative positioning is all the more important for two reasons: first, Mulcair's plan B looks to involve winning over exactly the urban professional voters who might be expected to gravitate her way; and second, she looks to have a relatively strong chance of winning over second-choice support from other candidates if the race comes down to a contest between her and Mulcair.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: First-ballot victory based on significant Quebec membership growth and strong national support
Worst-case: Little second-choice support leading to elimination on a late ballot