Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Paul Dewar

From the moment his leadership campaign launched, Paul Dewar has been positioned as a compromise candidate. And prior to the first debate, it's arguable that none of the candidates had done more to improve their standing in the race. But there are now some open questions as to whether Dewar will be able to sail through the campaign unchallenged.

Strengths

There are no doubts about Dewar's political pedigree or experience, with his extensive work in foreign affairs and endorsement from the ousted staff of Rights and Democracy looking like an especially promising basis for comparison to a government that's gone out of its way to embarrass Canada abroad.

Moreover, Dewar's campaign has been effective in turning his pluses into some of the most positive coverage the campaign has seen. And he seems to have impressed a decent number of members while making the rounds this fall.

Weaknesses

But Dewar's middling performance in the first official debate points to a couple of potential pitfalls. Most obviously, his ability to communicate in French isn't up to par - and while it's within the realm of possibility that Dewar could improve over the course of the leadership campaign, it will take some substantial work to shake the first impression.

Equally importantly, though, the exchanges with Brian Topp that made for a headline story coming out of the first debate suggest that Dewar won't be able to come up the middle without being substantially tested by other candidates. And that means Dewar's campaign will face far more of a challenge in defending an "everybody's second choice" brand without alienating supporters of the candidates who are looking to attack it.

Key Indicator

Fortunately, it should be fairly easy to determine whether Dewar is succeeding in that task by taking a look at his net favourability ratings as the campaign progresses. Either a lack of positive impressions or an excess of negative ones could doom the compromise candidate strategy - while a generally positive view of Dewar figures to be the key to his overcoming any deficit he faces on early ballots.

Key Opponent

While I've pointed out that Dewar looks to be the key opponent for Topp, the converse doesn't look to be true. Instead, it's entirely plausible that Dewar could end up behind Topp on a couple of ballots then make his way to the front of the pack - as long as he can find his way ahead of Peggy Nash, whose supporters are likely to be fairly suspicious of Topp's pitch as a progressive spokesman if there's another alternative on the ballot.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: Later-ballot win as compromise candidate
Worst-case: Middle-of-the-pack finish as second-choice support doesn't materialize