In some ways, Peggy Nash's candidacy is the easiest and most straightforward to analyze among the NDP's leadership contenders. She's drawn her core support from the intersection of the party and the progressive movement, meaning that her initial strength can be set at a level that should keep her on at least a few ballots. But there's still plenty of room for different outcomes depending on Nash's success in reaching beyond that initial base.
Strengths
Nash has always loomed as a superb candidate on paper: a long-time labour activist with loads of experience as a union negotiator and NDP MP and president, all paired with a strong bilingual academic background. And the personal connections she's been able to build over the course of her career give her a strong base of first-choice support.
Moreover, Nash has supplemented those strengths with some effective strategic moves. On the economy, she's spoken mostly about stability and anti-speculation measures - which may give Brian Topp a bit of space to appeal to strong supporters of a greater equality of outcomes, but offers a useful frame of reference to emphasize the link between the Cons' market dogma and the uncertainty Canadians are facing in trying to plan their futures. And in positioning herself compared to the other candidates, Nash has effectively emphasized her place as the most prominent female contender. Which means that there's reason to think Nash can both grow her support in the leadership campaign (as suggested by Skinny Dipper's multi-ballot poll), and set herself up in a strong position for the years to come.
Weaknesses
That said, there are at least a couple of possible gaps in Nash's case for the leadership. While I've found her English presentation to be effective, some observers have raised questions about her ability to engage audiences in both official languages. And there's been some question about her age, particularly if the party's intention is to allow the next leader a second chance to run in 2019 if the 2015 election doesn't result in a change in government.
I'd be surprised if those factors make a dent in Nash's first-choice support. But they might make all the difference to the extent Nash needs to count on down-ballot votes as part of a winning coalition.
Key Indicator
With that in mind, I'd keep a close eye on Nash's net favourability ratings. As long as supporters of other candidates (particularly Topp and Dewar) see her positively, she'll have an obvious path to add the votes she needs on top of her first-choice support. But if there's any significant controversy as to whether Nash can reach beyond her base, then the support she needs could instead find its way to Thomas Mulcair by default.
Key Opponent
Naturally, either of the top two contenders will need to focus on the other. And so Thomas Mulcair's positioning compared to Nash will be highly important: she can't afford either to let him put too much distance between himself and the field, or dictate the considerations members look to in deciding on their down-ballot support.
Plausible Outcomes
Best-case: Multi-ballot win as a consensus candidate
Worst-case: Mid-range finish based on a failure to add to early-ballot support
[Edit: fixed wording.]
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