Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Leadership 2012 Candidate Profile - Brian Topp

Let's start my series of NDP leadership candidate profiles with the first to enter the race, and one who's probably inspired more discussion than any other so far: longtime organizer and strategist Brian Topp.

Strengths

Topp's combination of organizational acumen and institutional support has been one of the defining features of the leadership campaign to date: he made himself into a perceived front-runner seemingly out of thin air with a series of early endorsements, and has never stopped earning at least a share of top billing as the campaign has progressed. And all indications are that in addition to having at least a communications-friendly organization, Topp can also hold his own in debating policy.

But Topp's campaign enjoys another potential strength - based partly on smart planning, partly on circumstance - that doesn't seem to have received much attention yet.

As much as Topp's strategy has been based on trying to race immediately to the front of the pack, he's also theoretically positioned better than most to pick up support in the more likely final-ballot matchups. And the main reason is that he figures to be next in line to pick up votes based on most of the other top candidates' strengths.

In a final ballot against Thomas Mulcair, Topp's comparatively left-wing economic stance and his support in the NDP's base would seemingly give him the upper hand in winning over the supporters of Peggy Nash, Paul Dewar and Niki Ashton - whose votes would likely be crucial in a close race. Or conversely, in a two-way contest against one of the stronger non-Quebec contenders Topp would hold an advantage in being able to present himself to supporters of Mulcair and Romeo Saganash as the remaining Quebec native son, while also tacking closer to Mulcair's philosophical leanings than the alternative.

Weaknesses

But those scenarios only come into play if Topp actually makes the final ballot. And that's where things start to get a bit dicey for his campaign.

It's far from clear that Topp's strength among the NDP's institutional leaders extends down to its general membership. And the combination of a controversial early launch, the extra attention that comes from media front-runner status and a relatively chippy campaign has resulted in plenty of voting members being wary of Topp.

Key Indicator

With that in mind, the test of Topp's campaign figures to be his general favourability rating by the time of the March vote.

Topp has already made sure that members will know his name and at least some of his policy positions. But if he can't use the months between now and March to build up what Warren Kinsella describes as the "Hell of a Guy" factor in addition to that strategic base - both to earn enough first-ballot support to stick around until the end, and to keep positive enough impressions among other candidates' supporters to pick up momentum on voting day - then all of Topp's planning will be for naught.

Key Competitor

Lest there be any doubt, it wasn't a coincidence that Topp's more testy exchanges on Sunday were those with Paul Dewar. Dewar has started the campaign as the most likely magnet for the down-ballot support Topp will likely need to stay in the race - and if (as seems entirely possible) the final four candidates in the contest are Mulcair, Nash, Topp and Dewar, then the most difficult hurdle for Topp to overcome may be trying to push Dewar to the bottom of that list to free up all of the down-ballot candidates' supporters.

Plausible Outcomes

Best-case: First-ballot win based on strong organization
Worst-case: Middle-of-the-pack finish based on limited personal reach

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