On eroding bases

It's far too early to declare anything decided as to what's going to happen in Canada's next federal election. But for anybody looking for an early indication as to whether or not we'll see a Bloc resurgence, about the only more clear sign than this...

The Bloc Québécois had held 47 of Quebec's 75 seats in the previous Parliament before its near-total wipeout.

Party membership has slumped since the election.

More than a quarter of the party's 53,000 members didn't renew their card and won't be able to vote for the next leader.

is this:

Mr. Paillé, 61, was elected Sunday with less than 40 per cent of party members bothering to vote, a dismal participation rate that indicates the magnitude of the challenge he faces rebuilding a party that was not so long ago a formidable political force.

All of which suggests that the Bloc has gone from being the party with the most active federal base in Quebec, to one with a lower per-capita participation level than such regional powerhouses as, say, the NDP in Alberta. And if (as seems entirely likely) the NDP can overcome starting from a base twenty times lower to turn out more Quebec leadership voters than the Bloc, then there's plenty of reason for optimism that this year's federal election results were just the beginning of its success in the province.