On unity

Remember back when Michael Ignatieff first ascended to the Liberal leadership, and reflexively declared every single issue - including his lunch orders - to be a vital matter of national unity?

I ask because we're at a point where, as noted by Chantal Hebert, there are two obvious alternatives as to where Canadian politics can go when it comes to the relative strength of the two sides of the federalism divide. And unfortunately, Ignatieff and his party look to be the greatest obstacle to the possibility that would actually result in a strengthened Canada.

On the one hand, there's the opportunity for a coalition which can both provide better government for Canada as a whole, and substantially defuse the Bloc in particular. Hebert describes the opportunity this way:

The Bloc’s support role in the opposition arrangement was really a secondary consideration. Replacing Stephen Harper’s regime with a progressive coalition was the plan’s main attraction in Quebec.

Duceppe is aware of the potential appeal of an NDP/Liberal coalition for many of his own supporters. As a social-democrat, he knows it would be hard to campaign against it.

Of course, it's also worth a reminder that not all possible coalitions are created equal. And it's the promise of Jack Layton at the helm which actually seems to have the potential to create the first outright win for a federalist grouping in Quebec since the formation of the Bloc two decades ago.

On the other hand, there's also the danger of continued Con government, with the possibility that would create the conditions for another vote on Quebec separation:

Based on historical trends, the Liberal cycle in the National Assembly is likely coming to an end. If only by default, the Parti Québécois is poised to come back to power after the next provincial election.

Duceppe who has had his finger on the pulse of the rest of Canada like no sovereignist before him expects a Conservative majority government to provide the impetus for a successful referendum.

A collective sense of rejection propelled him in the federal arena at the time of the Meech constitutional crisis twenty years ago and he thinks history is poised to repeat itself.

And what's worst about Hebert's observation is that she seems to have missed much of the basis for anger on the part of the Bloc if the Cons do manage to hold onto power. Indeed, even as the Bloc is hoping to be able to run as Quebec's main voice in response to the Cons, there seems to be no less desire on the Cons' part to run against Quebec.

While Hebert falls into the false trap of assuming that eliminating the per-vote subsidy will significantly harm the Bloc, I don't see much room for doubt that a campaign where the Cons and their media allies spend much of their time insisting that federal policy needs to be designed to kill off a party which holds a majority of Quebec seats would give rise to a significant backlash within Quebec. In effect, the more the Cons try to delegitimize the Bloc, the more outraged voters are likely to be about being told which of their elected representatives are acceptable to Stephen Harper.

And likewise, the Cons seem to be gleefully thumbing their nose at Quebec on a number of core issues: every dumb-on-crime policy and deliberate delay on the environment sends a strong message that areas of agreement among all parties in Quebec are seen as unworthy of even the slightest interest from the Cons.

So Hebert is right to suggest that the Bloc's plausible outcomes in the next election range from suffering a rout at the hands of a progressive alternative, to having the next separation referendum handed to it on a silver platter. But it's also worth noting that one of the most important factors in determining the outcome will be the role played by a leader who can't personally serve as the face of either.

If Ignatieff continues to try to downplay the idea of a coalition (allowing the Cons to run against the concept without offering a meaningful defence of it in response), then the outcome may well be a Con majority based almost entirely outside Quebec that will be seen as a slap in the face of the province. On the other hand, a message that Layton and the NDP can serve as partners and leaders in a cooperative government will allow the maximum number of progressive Quebec voters to shift their allegiances from the Bloc toward members of a possible coalition.

In sum, Ignatieff's Quebec strategy in the next election may provide the ultimate indication of where Canadian unity ranks on his list of priorities. And while the early returns aren't promising, there's still time for him to decide not to put the faint hope of a Lib sweep first.