Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre Nomination Wrapup

It's perhaps to be expected following a hard-fought provincial leadership race that some observers have looked for signs of a reprise at every turn. And so, some commenters (on this site at least) have tried to paint all kinds of nomination races as reflecting a continuation of the leadership contest - even when the actual connections to the leadership camps have ranged from slim to none.

That said, for those who are looking for a proxy battle, the Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre NDP nomination race is about as close as we figure to get - even if that's based on supporters behind the scenes rather than public intervention by the any of the leadership candidates themselves.

Which isn't to say that the candidates lack personal strengths that they also bring to the table. For example, Brian Sklar offers a strong public profile as a musician and media figure, as well as plenty of political experience within the NDP. But Sklar is also an inner-circle member of Dwain Lingenfelter's camp, with a support base primarily built around Lingenfelter's Regina machine, and a policy statement that echoes Lingenfelter's word for word.

Meanwhile, Don Hansen has plenty of personal and professional standing as a well-regarded pastor based in the rural part of the riding (Strasbourg and Bulyea). And he goes one step beyond Sklar on the independence side with a distinct set of policy messages based around J.S. Woodsworth's principle of "what we desire for ourselves, we wish for all". But Hansen too was recruited by one of Ryan Meili's key organizers, and his political team is built up primarily of participants in each of the runner-ups' leadership camps.

Of course, it's worth noting that the self-selection of supporters in RLLC is based on personal affinity for different priorities within the NDP's tent, rather than any conscious intention to replay the leadership race from either side. And indeed it likely says something for the unity of the provincial party that the most obvious parallels to the leadership race are actually playing out on the federal stage. But RLLC nonetheless looks to send an important signal as to the relative strength of a couple of the different groups of personalities within the party.

With that in mind, what can and should we expect over the nomination meetings to take place over the next couple of nights?

Endorsement

It won't come as much surprise to regular readers that my endorsement goes to Don Hansen, who took the time to introduce himself to readers in an earlier post.

On my reading, both candidates should be able to pose a strong challenge to the invisible Con incumbent Tom Lukiwski, and it'll be a definite plus to see either as Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre's representative in Parliament. But Hansen looks to offer a much stronger independent voice on all-too-often-neglected issues of poverty and social inclusion both within the NDP caucus and in the broader Canadian political scene. And that focus may be just as important politically as it is as a matter of principle, since the NDP's success in the next election and beyond will depend on its being able to draw sharp distinctions from the Cons' corporatist governing philosophy.

Prediction

So what's most likely to actually happen over the course of the nomination meetings? Sklar's longer-term involvement in the NDP and support of the provincial leader's organization make him the favourite on paper, and it's far from clear how far Hansen's rural advantage will go to overcome those factors. So I'll place the odds of winning at Sklar 65%, Hansen 35%.

But I'll encourage supporters of each side to come together as the provincial party has done in the wake of the leadership race - because whoever wins will have a far better chance of unseating Lukiwski if all sides are able to work together toward that common goal once the nomination is settled.

Update: As a reminder, the nomination meetings will take place tonight, June 23, in Lumsden at the Dew Drop Seniors Centre, and tomorrow, June 24, at the Italian Club in Regina. Registration will start at 5:30, and the meetings will be called to order at 6:30.