On targets

At the very least, the NDP's Taking Aim campaign should be a huge plus to keep the party election-ready - particularly compared to its competitors who are looking to downplay the likelihood of a vote anytime soon. But it's worth noting exactly how ambitious the NDP's goals look to be:

Here's exactly how we'll put your additional support into action.

✔ We'll hire 16 Target Team organizers in key Conservative regions.

✔ We'll match Harper's fundraising in the important pre-election period.

✔ And when Harper's negative attack ads come, we'll fire back with advertising of our own highlighting Layton's positive message of change.

Now, the first and last points may not be all that surprising, reflecting exactly the type of organization one would expect to counter the Cons' anticipated efforts. But how realistic is it to think the NDP can match the Cons' fund-raising for any substantial length of time?

For the answer, let's check the quarterly numbers from Pundits Guide. And since the NDP's plan seems to be targeted at a blitz over the course of the summer headed into a fall campaign, let's start by looking at how much the Cons normally raise in the summer months.

While Con fund-raising hasn't exactly followed consistent patterns from year to year, it's not exactly uncommon for third-quarter fund-raising to be relatively low compared to other periods during the course of the year - ranking as the lowest quarter in 2006 and 2007, and the second-lowest in 2005. But of course, that fund-raising was low only by the Cons' standards, counting upwards of $3 million in each individual quarter (as has been the case for every quarter since the Cons raised $2,582,647.00 in Q1 2005).

How likely is the NDP to reach that type of number? The top NDP quarter on record is Q4 2005, which combined the end-of-year donation rush with an election campaign - resulting in total donations of $2,716,054.91. And in the recent third-quarter election campaign in 2008, the NDP was able to pull in $1,889,805.02 for its second-best total since 2005.

Now, if one narrows the time period involved to include only a summer-long NDP election push compared to a quiet time for the Cons, then it may be possible for the NDP to actually match the Cons' numbers. But the more reasonable hope is for the NDP to focus on narrowing the gap and building up enough money for a single pre-election ad campaign if it's needed.

And there wouldn't seem to be a great need for much more than that. All indications are that the NDP will have enough money to fund its next federal election campaign under its business-as-usual scenario, as the party spending limits prevent the Cons from significantly outspending their competitors. So if the NDP's targeting campaign can allow it to fight to something approaching a draw against the Cons' expected attack on the idea of coalition politics, there's ample reason to think the NDP will be on target in its efforts to take down the Harper government.

(Edit: fixed wording.)