Yens Pedersen Candidate Checkpoint - The Lone Wolf

The Candidate

At a time when the Saskatchewan NDP was going through its lowest levels of enthusiasm in ages, Yens Pedersen was one party member who stepped up. In the 2007 election, he ran against a well-known municipal figure and nearly holding a Regina South seat which figured to be a tough battle for the NDP. At the 2008 convention he took over the party's presidency, only to step down in the fall when he started talking publicly about making the leadership his next goal.

In fact, Pedersen was the one eventual candidate who spoke publicly about the race before the new year, and became the second one in the contest in January 2009. But in retrospect, one has to wonder whether Pedersen nonetheless waited too long to get into the race.

The Strategy

While each of the other candidates apparently waited to have a solid base of organizational support before entering the race (even if Ryan Meili's didn't include much of the party establishment), all indications seem to be that Pedersen took the plunge in large part based on the hope that support would soon follow. Which might not have proved to be a disadvantage if he'd been alone in the race to try to build support as the only "anybody but Lingenfelter" candidate.

Instead, though, Pedersen's entry into the race was followed in short order by Higgins and Meili - both of whom were able to bring high-profile endorsements with them in relatively short order. And that's left Pedersen looking particularly lonely for lack of any endorsements that he's seen fit to highlight.

Not that Pedersen hasn't managed to make his presence felt in the race - by raising issues, inserting himself into the media narrative on others, and connecting with a substantial number of supporters. And he's consistently held his own when the candidates have shared the same stage.

But in the absence of others willing to lend their reputations to his campaign, Pedersen has been left with the steepest hill of any of the candidates. And while Pedersen has done his best to seek out voter pools that the others may have missed, there isn't much reason to think he's going to be able to make the climb on his own.

The Result

So what can Pedersen do to win? At this point, the answer looks to be that there isn't much of a path to victory that doesn't involve a total collapse or two among the other candidates.

That will leave Pedersen with a choice as to how to handle the rest of the campaign. On the one hand, he can try to make high-controversy, potentially high-reward moves to get his name into the public eye - even if that means alienating other factions within the party. But it's hard to see that being a winning move - and it may only serve to make it more difficult to capitalize even if another candidate does stumble and create an opening.

Which means that the better option for Pedersen looks to be to build as much support as he can around the margins without making enemies for himself out of the current contest. And if that leads to his taking a cabinet position under another leader grateful for his contributions to the party and to the race, then Pedersen may have an easier time attracting followers if be makes another run for the leadership in the future.