On joint efforts

Duncan Cameron discusses how the parties in Parliament figure to handle the rest of 2009. But perhaps his most interesting point is to suggest a possibility for cooperation which might prevent either the Cons or the Libs from picking their preferred time for a federal election:

While it is in Harper's best interest to keep the Bloc and the NDP divided, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe can work together behind the scenes to exact concessions from Harper, and forestall an unnecessary election.

As Cameron notes earlier, the Cons can theoretically stay in power with the support of any one party in the House of Commons. Which on its face would seem to give them significant leverage even if they come to the conclusion that they can't rely on the Libs supporting their every move.

But both the NDP and the Bloc also have strong reasons not to be left supporting the Cons either on their own, or for anything short of massive concessions. After all, the NDP's current branding is based largely on its being the lone party never to have propped up the Cons alone - and I for one wouldn't want to see that change without an awfully good reason. And the Bloc's 2008 campaign message was aimed entirely at holding the Cons short of a majority. Which makes the likelihood of NDP support on its own virtually nil, while the Bloc too has reason to be wary.

So what would happen if the NDP and Bloc worked together to develop a common set of demands, and agreed that neither would support the Cons unless all of those demands were met?

At that point, Harper's leverage would seemingly be down to zero if the Libs ever did get around to acting like an opposition party. Rather than being able to play opposition parties against each other, he'd face an all-or-nothing decision as to whether or not to accept the NDP/Bloc platform.

There's little reason to think that he'd be able to take much off the table in his effort to hang on. Which means that there would actually be a realistic prospect of both bringing about substantial positive change, and of keeping the Cons' worst instincts in check. (In effect, the obvious questions as to whether the Cons can be trusted could be dealt with by strong enough terms within the deal itself.)

Meanwhile, both the Bloc and the NDP would be able to point to a multi-party consensus which would seriously dilute any criticism about voting with the government. And indeed to the extent a joint platform was based on the principles underlying the progressive coalition which they signed onto, the Libs might have little choice but to vote for it themselves.

Of course, the best option for the opposition parties is still likely to take down the Cons at the earliest opportunity, particularly given the risk that the Libs could get cold feet again. But if the NDP and Bloc can get to the next election being able to show significant policy results for a single confidence vote as compared to none for the Libs' 62 and counting, that could well be the point at which it's worthwhile to see just how much Harper will give to hang on a little longer. And their chances of making that happen are far better if they join forces.