On spillover effects

There's been some discussion about how the HST will influence votes over the next few years - with Dalton McGuinty looking to have it considered solely as part of his party's body of work in the 2011 Ontario election, while the B.C. Libs hope to spread their province's even greater anger over a period starting with the recall window this fall and not ending until the 2013 trip to the polls. But it's worth keeping in mind that it's not only on the provincial level that voters will have a chance to express their anger.

That's particularly so in B.C., where the argument about the supposed "benefits" of the HST is largely coming down to Gordon Campbell's plea that province can't afford to give back the federal Cons' bribe money (and will take back the money that handed to voters to try to buy their silence).

Of course, it seems clear that the province's citizens were less than happy with the deal to begin with, and thus won't have much compunction about voting to undo it. But the more Campbell talks about the federal role as an excuse to keep the HST, the more the Cons figure to be dragged down as well as the debate plays out. And to the extent Campbell claims the province can't afford to lose the money involved, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the anti-HST forces challenge whether the Harper Cons want to punish the province for the Libs' mistakes.

As a result, a federal election in the midst of an HST referendum could serve as one more outlet for voters to replace a government looking out primarily for corporate interests with one that actually takes their concerns into account.

The situation may be different in Ontario, as the McGuinty government has chosen a strategy of taking somewhat more responsibility and engaging in correspondingly less finger-pointing. But it's anybody's guess as to whether that will hold up, particularly as the federal role gets discussed in the context of the B.C. campaigns. And while the Libs and Cons may be able to do little more than bash each other to a draw when it comes time to assign blame for the HST, there's one party that can stand above the fray.

All of which means that the HST is far from done with as an issue at either the provincial or the federal level. And there's a strong chance that the Campbell Libs' attempt to delay facing the music will only ensure that all of the governments responsible will end up paying a well-deserved price.

On confirmation

Not that it's particularly surprising that the B.C. Libs were less than honest in claiming to have never thought about imposing the HST until roughly three seconds before they officially declared it a done deal. But for those wondering when the paper trail would emerge, here's the answer: just in time to get the public nice and riled up for a recall campaign.

Grassroots growing

In case there was any doubt that it's still possible to get large numbers of people involved in a political effort, the B.C. HST petition should put that to rest - having reached the required threshold of obtaining signatures from 10 per cent of the voters in every single one of B.C.'s provincial ridings with over a month to spare.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the petition will manage to force a near-term change in policy, government or both. But the fact that it's cleared what was once seen as an insurmountable hurdle should signal that it's not a good idea to bet against the anti-HST movement - and provide a positive example for efforts to get citizens engaged on other issues as well.

Still in issue

While the initial legislative debates about the HST in both Ontario and B.C. are done, the issue isn't dying down in either province. So let's note the most interesting developments on both fronts.

In Ontario, there doesn't seem to be much talk of stopping or reversing the move toward benefiting corporations at the expense of citizens. But it's worth highlighting the effort of one Lib constituency association to try to counter public disgust at having the HST applied to a wide swath of consumer purchases - by countering with a list of some of the areas that are mercifully unaffected. Which strikes me as functionally equivalent to BP declaring we should all be grateful for its Gulf of Mexico spill by naming areas of coastline elsewhere around the globe that won't end up covered in oil.

Meanwhile, in B.C. the conventional wisdom appears to have changed from "the Libs will ride it out" to "the Libs are doomed whatever they do" - and not without reason given the remarkable strength of the province's petition campaign. And it doesn't figure to be much of a leap from that stance to the view that Gordon Campbell and Colin Hansen may have to back down from their stubborn insistence on imposing the tax.

Tuesday Morning Links

So much going on, so little time. So let's deal with a few recent developments in point form.

- Regina Councillor Chris Szarka wants to put in place a Regina Big Home Lottery (wealthy property owners guaranteed to win!). Christine Whitaker responds by pointing out the problems with shifting the cost of services even further toward those who can't afford to pay more.

- Brad Wall's Sask Party government: consistently outraged that anyone has the nerve to seek out the truth.

- Two former Saskatchewan NDP leadership contestants look to be making solid progress in their riding nomination races: Ryan Meili has relaunched his website and funded his Saskatoon Sutherland nomination contest through a single money bomb, while Yens Pedersen is back blogging with a strong comment on the WEPA.

- Finally, the Georgia Straight reports that the Campbell Liberals have even more to worry about by way of public backlash to the HST as the anti-harmonization forces are looking at recalling MLAs. Meanwhile, Colin Hansen is shocked to learn that the rules apply to his government - while Elections B.C.'s rightful rejection of pro-HST propaganda makes it all the more likely that the current petition initiative will succeed.

The competition heats up

Sure, Rod Gantefoer might seem to have an early lead in the Owelympic Games' Jaw-Dropping Incompetence event. But B.C. Finance Minister Colin Hansen isn't going down without a fight:

Last September, Hansen said that B.C. had opted to take the federal monies over a three-year period -- $750 million in 2009/10; $374 million in 2010/11; and $475 million in 2011/12 -- rather than in a lump sum. The timing of those federal payments, Hansen added, was solely at B.C.'s discretion.

But today's budget shows that the Campbell Liberals have decided to fudge the timing of those federal payments. Instead of receiving $750 million in the current fiscal year (which ends on March 31), Victoria will accept just $250 million from Ottawa -- thereby deferring $500 million in revenues to later years.

So, instead of obtaining Ottawa's HST inducements when they're needed most -- now, when B.C.'s fiscal deficit is at its nadir of $2.8 billion -- the Campbell government intends to shove those transfers to some point in the future.

Why ever would they do that? It's simple, really: the BC Liberals believe windfall federal government monies are most-needed -- not at the present time, just after they won a provincial-general election -- but just before the next general election, scheduled for 2013. That way, the Campbell government can be assured of recording a balanced (or surplus) budget when next they face the electorate.
...
(I)nstead of accepting federal windfall payments immediately, we'll now be borrowing monies to cover the annual fiscal shortfall. And we'll be paying interest on those borrowed monies.

How much will that be? According to this author's calculations (using the Interest Rate Forecasts on page 119 of the government's Budget and Fiscal Plan, 2010/11 - 2012/13, here), the unnecessary interest charges incurred by the Campbell government will cost British Columbians $49.9 million in 2010/11 and $24.4 million in 2011/12. That's a total of $74.3 million over a two-year period.

For all the criticism the federal Cons have taken for their incessant use of public money for partisan advertising, at least they managed to buy air time and produce PR material for their tens of millions of taxpayer dollars. (Which leads to the question: what does Deficit Jim Flaherty have in his bag of tricks to be revealed tomorrow?)

In contrast, Hansen seems entirely happy to spend upwards of $70 million on nothing but raw political calculation. And I'd have to wonder whether B.C. citizens left with the bill will be happy to see public money thrown down the tubes for the B.C. Libs' gain - or whether they'll be roused enough to recall Hansen and enough of his partymates to change B.C.'s government before the supposed payoff.