While there was plenty to talk about following the NDP's first leadership debate, the effect of such an early event on the candidates' long-term prospects was bound to be limited. And so the most-discussed event of the campaign so far hasn't led to much change from last week's rankings.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
Of course, part of the reason why not much has changed is that the front-runners mostly lived up to their billing. And Mulcair in particular strengthened his position this week with both a strong debate performance and a key policy launch. Which means that while there's still some question as to how he'll do in attracting both new and current members, Mulcair isn't far from being classified in a top tier of his own.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash generally held her position in the first debate, presenting arguably the strongest economic message of any candidate in English while making a passable showing in French. And that's enough to keep her in the #2 spot for now - though hopefully we'll see a pivot from endorsement announcements to more direct interaction between Nash and members as the race develops.
3. Brian Topp (3)
Similarly, Topp largely achieved what I figured to be his main task for the first policy debate, holding his own on both ideas and presentation (the occasional distracting movement aside). But while I can see the strategic reason for his choice to "bump gloves" with Paul Dewar, the sense that Topp is being more combative toward his partymates than other contenders may cut into his ability to win over needed later-ballot support.
4. Paul Dewar (4)
I'll avoid dropping Dewar based on an unimpressive debate showing, particularly since his policy release on linking per-vote funding to a party's slate of female candidates seems to have been fairly well-received so far. But at this point, I'd place Dewar closer to the candidates below him than the ones above.
5. Niki Ashton (6)
And by standing out among the middle tier of candidates at the start of the campaign, Ashton looks to have a reasonable chance to elevate herself in the field - particularly if she can show enough growth in her own presentation (ideally going from her default "new politics" theme to a bit more off-the-cuff discussion) to assuage questions about her age.
6. Romeo Saganash (5)
Saganash drops because of Ashton's strong debate performance rather than any particular problem on his part. But again, there are only so many opportunities for Saganash to live up to his potential as a candidate - and even if health was a factor last weekend, the loss of one of chances those can only narrow Saganash's path to victory.
7. Nathan Cullen (7)
For now, Cullen's strong debate performance doesn't change a lot in the larger scheme of things. But if there's some indication that he's pulling in support from outside the NDP's base, that will go a long way toward moving him up the list.
8. Martin Singh (9)
No, Singh didn't wow anybody in his first chance to go toe to toe with his competitors. But nor did he appear the least bit out of place - and that offers reason for hope that he can win over members as the leadership campaign progresses.
9. Robert Chisholm (8)
This week's endorsement by Howard Hampton at least gives Chisholm enough of a boost to keep his campaign from fading away entirely. But Chisholm won't move substantially higher than this position until he demonstrates some ability to do more than read French text with an English pronunciation - and it's hard to see how he'll get there during the course of the leadership campaign if Sunday's performance was the result of several months of tutelage.
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