Not a lot has changed since last week's rankings. But with the first NDP leadership debate looming this afternoon, let's quickly take stock of where the candidates stand - including with a quick take on what they'll each need to accomplish this afternoon.
1. Thomas Mulcair (1)
There isn't much doubt about Mulcair's command of the issues, and the economy should be a particularly strong suit given his extensive work as a national spokesperson and liaison for the NDP. So Mulcair's main goal for today figures to be to stay above the fray: he'll surely be in the sights of a few of the other candidates, and will need to avoid negative impressions among the other candidates and their supporters which might limit his later-ballot support.
2. Peggy Nash (2)
Nash too has plenty of experience speaking out on economic issues. But she may have somewhat more at stake than Mulcair since her personal brand is so closely linked to left-wing economic populism - meaning that if she can't inspire the base with both content and style, the rest of the campaign may get much tougher for her.
3. Brian Topp (4)
Topp makes a slight move up in the rankings thanks to the release of his tax plan, which served as a reminder that his air campaign is as well planned out as anybody's. But today may be the most important test as to whether Topp can live up to the hype surrounding his endorsements and media profile.
4. Paul Dewar (3)
Dewar drops one position for now through no fault of his own. But today may be telling as to Dewar's ability to connect with voters in French, with a secure place in the upper tier of the campaign at stake.
5. Romeo Saganash (5)
None of the leadership contenders figures to rely more on a possible snowball effect to push them to the front of the pack than Saganash. And today provides the best chance to get the ball rolling if Saganash can win over unaligned members to join his camp.
6. Niki Ashton (6)
While most of the other candidates will be working on standing out in the debate, Ashton's goal may be slightly less lofty: she can dispel concerns about her age and experience if she can hold her own in sparring with her fellow candidates on economic values and policies.
7. Nathan Cullen (8)
Cullen actually rises one position thanks to the lack of discussion of his signature policy: while any talk about pre-electoral cooperation with the Liberals figures to turn off a substantial part of the NDP's base, the rest of Cullen's candidacy looks significantly more appealing. But obviously Cullen can't afford to keep up that pattern if he hopes to rise in the field - which means that the goal for today has to be to reach outside the party to start bringing in the external support he'll need to stay on the ballot.
8. Robert Chisholm (7)
Since Chisholm's appeal is based in large part on his experience as Nova Scotia's opposition leader, he doesn't figure to benefit much from a policy area of strength. Instead, he needs to express himself in French at least enough to create some hope that he'll be able to communicate in both of Canada's official languages by the end of the leadership campaign.
[Update: I see from the CP's report that Chisholm plans to rely on simultaneous translation. Which may kick the can down the road for later in the campaign compared to trying and failing to debate in French now - but means that he'll make no headway at all on the biggest question about his candidacy.]
9. Martin Singh (9)
Singh stays at the bottom of the list for now. But the first debate offers him an ideal chance to introduce himself to the country at large - and since Singh has avoided the pitfalls of the candidates ahead of him, he might well rise by next week if he's well-received.
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