Romeo Saganash was the second candidate to enter the NDP's leadership race, and remains one of the contenders with a plausible path to a strong victory. But how likely is it that Saganash can reach that result?
Strengths
On paper, there isn't another candidate in the race with a personal story that holds a candle to Saganash's, both in general and as a contrast to the governing party the NDP needs to challenge. Saganash is a residential school survivor looking to highlight Cree values while the Cons work to dismantle any trace of communal life; he's a trail-blazer in First Nations accomplishment seeking to lead a party that's similarly working to achieve unprecedented success; he's an experienced negotiator preaching constructive engagement in the wake of the most divisive federal government in recent memory. And that compelling personal narrative makes Saganash the candidate with the most potential to carry a transformational message through the leadership campaign.
And as an added bonus, Saganash has shown enough personal toughness to work through a racial appeal by his Bloc competitor in May's general election.
Weaknesses
But a candidate needs to be able to convert theoretical strengths into actual popular support. And Saganash seems to have some distance yet to travel on that front.
To date, the concerns about Saganash have been based on relatively minor issues like a momentary misstep on sovereignty and an unimpressive English-language performance in the party's first debate. But the broader question facing his campaign is whether he's in fact sending a message of change strongly enough to set himself apart from the field - as Saganash's limited history in the NDP means he'll need to bring in a large amount of outside support to reach the upper tier of candidates.
Key Indicator
With that in mind, I'd keep a particularly close eye on Saganash's level of popular recognition. As long as he's perceived as just one of the pack, he likely doesn't have much of a path to victory - but if enough of the general public gets to know him as a household name, then that likely signals that he's managed to develop enough of a profile to bring in the outside support he needs.
Key Opponent
While Saganash hasn't yet shown a lot of focus on a transformational message, Niki Ashton has been quite consciously presenting exactly that. And the interplay between Saganash and Ashton will be fascinating as the campaign progresses: the two share similar bases of support (northern and First Nations organizations to go with a strong appeal to younger and newer voters) and will almost certainly need the other's outreach efforts to contribute to any eventual victory, but Saganash in particular needs to stay ahead of Ashton to benefit from the two candidates' mutually reinforcing themes.
Plausible Outcomes
Best-case: Early-ballot win based on influx of new voters
Worst-case: Bottom-three finish as campaign fails to gather momentum
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