Saturday, June 20, 2009

CROP circles

The headlines surrounding the latest CROP poll are understandably focusing on the end of Michael Ignatieff's honeymoon in the province. But while most of the other parties can find some ups and downs in the poll, the NDP alone can point to what looks to be unequivocally good news - as declines for Ignatieff personally and for the Cons and Bloc in the party standings look to be correlating with NDP gains.

From a leadership standpoint, Jack Layton is up to 24% in the "Best PM" category, closing 7 points of the gap between himself and Michael Ignatieff even though the June polling started before Ignatieff's last show of weakness. (Meanwhile, Stephen Harper's descent continues, as he managed to lose a point himself to 14% even as Ignatieff started to drop.)

But then, the NDP's biggest question in Quebec over the past few years has been how to make the party's support numbers match Layton's personal popularity. And there, the NDP is up to 17% both in general and with francophone voters - ranking well ahead of the Cons on both counts.

Of course, the big question for all parties is whether the Libs can sustain their relatively strong support numbers. But it's noteworthy that the NDP is now matching its Dion-era high-water mark for party support despite the Libs' initial Ignatieff boost - signalling that the NDP's current support includes far more than just disaffected Libs looking for a place to park their vote. And if Ignatieff and the Libs are indeed poised for some further declines, the NDP looks to be extremely well positioned to start making some serious inroads in Quebec.

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous1:26 p.m.

    Hey there, You have done an incredible job. I will certainly digg it and personally recommend to my friends.

    I am confident they will be benefited from this web site.

    Also visit my web-site ... Raspberry ketone