Saskatoon Sutherland - NDP Nominates Naveed Anwar

It may make for an anticlimactic end to the NDP's nomination race. But as expected following Ryan Meili's decision to step aside, Naveed Anwar has won the NDP's nomination in Saskatoon Sutherland.

The 2011 race between Anwar and Paul Merriman may involve new faces in both of the main parties, but should still nonetheless make for an interesting battle for one of the seats which figures to be hotly contested on both sides. Congratulations to Anwar on his successful nomination campaign, and we'll look forward to seeing how much of his success recruiting members thus far can translate into a volunteer base for the general election.

On withdrawal

Needless to say, Ryan Meili's withdrawal from the Saskatoon Sutherland nomination race makes for a disappointment for many within the Saskatchewan NDP - not to mention a shock coming less than a week away from the riding's nomination meeting. But let's take a closer look at what his departure figures to mean both for Meili and the party.

From Meili's perspective, the nomination race looks to have gone wrong in nearly every way that last year's leadership race went right. Instead of starting out as a virtual unknown who was able to make a positive impression without facing a lot of opponents' potshots, Meili began the nomination race as the front-runner - and the obvious target for the other candidates (with going especially negative for a nomination campaign).

What's more, instead of being able to count on broad appeal to boost his candidacy, Meili ran into the realities of local politics where a highly focused effort on a single cultural community by a well-connected candidate can swamp the membership numbers in the balance of a riding. And indeed, the race may raise some reason for wider discussion as to whether the NDP should work on eliminating any perceived barriers to membership in order to facilitate broader decision-making at the riding level.

But while Anwar's impressive membership sales raised questions about whether Meili would be likely to win, they hardly figures to explain his dropping out of the race without even testing whether Anwar's supporters would turn out.

Instead, I have to wonder whether the biggest issue for Meili was his own response to the challenges - including the recent jawing between his camp and Cam Broten (wherever it may have originated). During a sometimes-acrimonious leadership race, Meili did a remarkable job of staying above the fray. But he apparently wasn't quite so successful in the nomination race, and that might explain why he wouldn't want to keep going from a personal standpoint even if there was still a substantial chance of winning the nomination.

If there's any good news, it's an important caveat in Meili's announcement - that he "(intends) to continue to work for a better world, but not by seeking public office". And while many of us hoped to see what he could do as an MLA, there's plenty of reason for optimism that a leader who managed to inspire many an NDP member can still have a substantial impact in venues other than the Legislature.

So what does Meili's departure mean for the party as a whole? By all accounts, Anwar had already managed to achieve front-runner status in the nomination race - so barring a weak turnout among his newly-recruited supporters, it might not affect the immediate chances of taking Saskatoon Sutherland.

Instead, the more obvious potential impact is the prospect that some of Meili's enthusiastic leadership supporters might become similarly disillusioned by the electoral process. And the party would be well served to make sure that both Meili and his grassroots movement are seen to have a voice as it develops its slate of candidates and policies for 2011.

Updates and Events

A few scheduling notes to help Saskatchewan political junkies to plan the rest of their month...

- One NDP nomination race has come and gone sooner than expected, as Serge Leclerc's resignation resulted in an early nomination meeting in Saskatoon Northwest. Congrats to acclaimed candidate Jan Dyky, who will face off against the Sask Party's Gord Wyant in a riding which had seen nothing but nail-biters until the 2007 election.

- Also on the nomination front, I've previously noted the NDP's October 2 nomination meeting for Saskatoon Sutherland. But an equally important date is looming much closer, as the deadline for membership sales is September 18.

- As LRT notes, the events surrounding the NDP's Regina caucus meeting include a fund-raiser tomorrow night for UFCW 1400 members. So for those looking to have a good time for a good cause, now's your chance.

- Finally, the Saskatchewan NDP's policy review process looks to be kicking into high gear, with upcoming meetings scheduled for Regina on September 20 and Saskatoon on September 28.

Friday Morning Links

A bit of reading material to close out the week...

- Chantal Hebert rebuts her previous theory about the Libs' chances in Quebec better than I did, pointing out exactly why high expectations figure to be thing of the past:

Given that alone among the provinces Quebec actually runs a public pension system distinct from the Canada Pension Plan, the chosen theme for Thursday’s visit is an odd fit.

In fairness though, the issue of pension reform may well reflect the interests of a critical mass of Quebec federal Liberals. In this province, it is hard to determine which is aging faster: the federal Liberal membership or the ever-shrinking group of Catholic mass regulars.

Moreover, in light of their ongoing organizing challenges in Quebec, Liberal strategists are at least playing it safe by selecting an issue that comes with the potential of captive audiences.

At best, one might figure that the Libs can try to wring a few more seats out of one last appeal to an aging base. But Hebert seems to have recognized that time isn't on their side.

- The Citizen is rightly critical of the deterioration of Environment Canada data. But based on our census experience, a permanent loss of trust in government data seems to be seen by the Cons as a feature rather than a bug:

(Y)es, the need for information is made even more urgent by the fact of climate change. If extreme weather events are going to get more frequent, we need to understand how that's likely to affect Canadian communities.

The report also makes the point that Environment Canada shares its information with other levels of government, the private sector and the international scientific community. Inaccurate or spotty data will create mistrust in those relationships, and it could take Environment Canada a long time to recover from that.

There are smart ways to cut costs in the public service and there are stupid ways. If the cuts to the meteorological service are still affecting the quality of Canada's climate data as much as this report suggests, Environment Minister Jim Prentice should acknowledge the problem and start fixing it.

- And likewise John Ivison's characterization of the Harper Cons as an immature, "wannabe Top Gun" governing style, particularly based on Stephen Harper's own childish stunt yesterday:

raising the spectre of the Russian bear in the air must have seemed like a good idea, since it knocked the committee meeting off the news agenda.

But here’s why it was not. The Canadian government’s own strategy document says our only territorial disputes in the Far North are with Denmark over Hans Island and the United States over the maritime boundary in the Beaufort Sea.

A dispute with Russia may yet emerge if there are over-lapping claims along the Lomonosov Ridge, a mountain range beneath the Arctic Ocean, where a mini-submarine planted a Russian flag in 2007.

But co-operating with Russia may yield more benefits than confrontation. Where Canada claims the North-West Passage as an internal waterway, so Russia claims the North-East Passage — both of which are set to become navigable.
...
No one is suggesting that Canadian sovereignty in the North is not important — nor that the Canadian Forces should not respond to potential incursions (even if, as NDP critic Jack Harris pointed out, the Russians have not entered Canadian airspace in the last decade).

But it is fair to suggest that there should be a more mature, sophisticated approach taken by the Prime Minister’s Office. To speak in the style of a wannabe Top Gun is not grown-up government.

- I'll fully agree with Michael Ignatieff's concern about the Cons blowing upwards of a million dollars on a single photo op. But I'd think there's room to raise a broader issue about the use of Canada's military resources for PR purposes, as Paul Wells for one notes that this is hardly a first.

- Finally, James Wood notes that Scott Stelmaschuk has bowed out of the NDP's nomination race in Saskatoon Sutherland to back Ryan Meili - which still leaves three strong candidates in the running for one of the party's top pickup opportunities in 2011.

Sunday Morning Links

This and that for your Sunday reading...

- Tabatha Southey delivers a thoroughly entertaining smackdown of Stockwell Day's antics over the past week:

I mention all of this as context for my reaction to Stockwell Day’s press conference this week in which he explained that the government must spend $13-billion on prisons, despite statistics showing that crime is down in Canada, because of an “alarming” increase in “unreported crime.”

I'm having trouble sharing and understanding his particular personal vision. I'm not sure that prisons are a good “if you build it, they will come” investment.

In fact, I thought the Treasury Board President looked pretty crazy and scared. I felt like I was watching a man light himself on fire.
...
The strength of the Conservatives for so long was their ability to get inside the heads of ordinary Canadians. Lately, it’s as if they’re bored with that, so instead they are getting inside the heads of the most bashful of property-crime victims and some Cold War re-enactment enthusiasts.

- It's great to see John Rafferty's work on pensions getting some positive media attention. And while I'm less optimistic than Rafferty seems to be about the prospect of getting much done in a Con-controlled Parliament, it's definitely worth working getting C-501 passed to make sure that workers aren't left out in the cold when an employer goes under.

- I've mentioned before that it strikes me as entirely too narrow a focus to view the Cons' gutting of the census as merely a communications issue. But Bruce Anderson is still worth a read from that angle:

(T)he long-form-census debate is almost case-study worthy, as communications goes. Before the announcement, there was no effort to rally interest in the problem that the government felt needed to be addressed. The blow-back was predictable, but from the get go, it seemed that the government kept bringing rhetorical pen-knives to a gun fight.

After the blow-back became a source of political anxiety for the Conservatives, two or three different lines of argument were inflated and trial ballooned, none of which have soared. Net-net, the Harper Conservatives added a public-opinion risk with no reward anywhere in sight. If they wanted a debate about which party best respects your privacy, there is little evidence or prospect of this happening now. The more likely question vexing centrist voters is whether the Harper government prefers ideology over information as a way to make decisions with their money and about their services.

- Which is why the Cons may want to take another look at the Chronicle Herald's suggestion:

In the past month, while Mr. Harper has been largely unseen and unheard, the government has been anything but focused on the economy. It has stirred up a national backlash over replacing the mandatory long-form census with a voluntary one that will cost more and yield less reliable data on which to plan government services and make economic policy. It has expended energy talking "tough on crime" and arguing the need for more prisons even in the face of falling crime rates.

Although the PM has left his ministers to conduct an inept defence of both these diversions, the policies clearly come from his office and wouldn’t be getting their misplaced prominence if he didn’t want it that way.
...
Mr. Harper should accept the compromise he’s been offered on the census and get his attention back where he says it belongs: on economic management.

- Finally, while I've mentioned the Saskatchwan NDP's candidate nominations as they've happened, it's worth noting that the Sask Party has also been carrying out plenty of nominations. And their acclamation of Paul Merriman in Saskatoon Sutherland looks to reflect two of the party's major weaknesses: not only does the free ride for a familiar name play into concerns about connections mattering more than substance, but the fact that this is the second Sask Party-held riding where Wall and company couldn't even find a second interested candidate plays into the perception that they're little more than a Potemkin party.

Upcoming Saskatchewan NDP Nomination Dates - The Battlefords, Saskatoon Sutherland

For those who didn't get enough nomination drama in June or are already looking for their next fix, the Saskatchewan NDP has posted a couple of nomination dates for September and October:

- On September 16, the NDP will hold its nomination meeting for The Battlefords riding held by Len Taylor.

- And October 2 will be the date of the Saskatoon Sutherland nomination meeting, featuring a hotly contested race among Ryan Meili, Naveed Anwar, Rob Dobrohoczki and Scott Stelmaschuk.

Neither of the event listings yet includes locations or times - but I'll post those once they're available.

Meanwhile, for those looking for a dose of politics in the meantime, Michael Medby's Northwest Rebellion is worth a listen.

On open seats

As Kent has already noted, Sask Party MLA Joceline Schriemer has decided not to run again in 2011.

While the move is far from unexpected based on Schriemer's lack of interest in the job, it confirms that the Wall government will have to start from scratch in a seat where the NDP boasts one of its strongest challengers in Ryan Meili (along with three other nomination contestants). And it'll be worth watching who gets saddled with the responsibility of carrying the banner for the Sask Party in a race where the NDP has such a significant head start.

Checked out

At last notice, Saskatoon Sutherland MLA Joceline Schriemer wasn't sure whether she wanted to bother running to hold the seat in 2011. But based on what happened in the Legislature on Thursday, it's worth wondering whether she's even interested in the job while she continues to hold it.

Here's what happened when a Sask Party motion which Schriemer was supposed to be introducing came up for discussion:

The Speaker: — I recognize the member from Lloydminster.

Children’s Hospital

Mr. McMillan: — Thank you, Mr. Speaker. I’m very pleased to speak to the children’s hospital in Saskatoon. It’s something that I know we take very . . .

An Hon. Member: — Point of order. Point of order, Mr. Speaker. Point of order . . . [inaudible] . . .

The Speaker: — Right. Right. Order. I remind the members that the member has to be in her chair to move the motion forward. I recognize the member from Saskatoon Sutherland.

[Interjections]

The Speaker: — Order. Order. Order. Why is the member on his feet?

Mr. Yates: — Point of order, Mr. Speaker.

The Speaker: — The member from Regina Dewdney.

Mr. Yates: — Mr. Speaker, in order for a motion before this Assembly to move forward when it’s called, the mover of the motion has to be in their seat and move the motion, Mr. Speaker, and enter the debate. At the time the motion was called, the member was not there. A second member stood and spoke, began to speak, Mr. Speaker. I rose on my feet to say that was out of order, Mr. Speaker. Subsequently the member came back into the House, Mr. Speaker. The rules would say that that motion should have been passed over, Mr. Speaker.

The Speaker: — I recognize the Government House Leader.

Mr. D’Autremont: — On the point of order, Mr. Speaker. Mr. Speaker, I’m not in disagreement with the point of order that the member raises.

Now, I'd think that an MLA responsible for presenting a motion would generally want to pay at least enough attention to make sure that it could be discussed. And it doesn't look like anything much out of the ordinary happened on Thursday to disrupt the usual schedule for legislative proceedings.

But Schriemer apparently didn't bother to stay in the chamber at the one point where her presence was actually required, then was caught entirely off guard by what seems to have been her main legislative responsibility for the day. And the result was that the Sask Party threw away its chance to have the legislature discuss its choice of motions for the day.

Of course, that doesn't figure to result in any great loss for the province - particularly given that the motion looks to have been little more than an attempt to pretend that the Wall government's decision to pull funding from the Children's Hospital should be ignored. But Schriemer's constituents surely have to wonder just what else she's missed while hemming and hawing as to whether or not she actually wants her job. And Schriemer's failings can only help convince the riding that it'll be better served electing one of the strong NDP contenders for her seat.

On battle lines

James Wood offers up some more details about yesterday's nomination news in Saskatoon Sutherland. And the picture looks to be a positive one for the NDP on a couple of fronts.

First, there's a possible explanation as to what might have tipped the balance for Ryan Meili in seeking the NDP's nomination in Saskatoon Sutherland rather than Saskatoon Greystone - as one of his strong leadership supporters may be back for another run in the latter riding:

(F)ormer NDP cabinet minister Peter Prebble said Friday he has been approached by the Saskatoon Greystone nomination committee and isn't ruling out running again in his old seat -- although he strongly emphasized he has not made any decision.

"I haven't said yes to any proposition," he said Friday.

"It would be a big decision to re-enter."

Needless to say, Prebble's background in Greystone would figure to position him extremely well for the general election if he does decide to take the plunge. And it makes sense that Meili wouldn't want to pursue Greystone if the likely result would have been to rule out Prebble's return (or set up a nomination battle which would see one or the other removed from the party's slate of candidates).

Of course, the flip side is that the NDP surely won't want to wait too long to get its candidate in place to challenge for what looks to be an important seat. And hopefully we'll see Prebble or another candidate in place before long.

Meanwhile, Saskatoon Sutherland may also be looking like an even juicier target for the general election than I would have figured. While rookie MLA Joceline Schriemer isn't exactly a household name, the NDP's chances of retaking the seat should improve substantially if the Sask Party doesn't have an incumbency advantage - and apparently Schriemer is considering stepping down:

Like Norris, Joceline Schriemer was a rookie Sask. Party MLA in 2007 -- knocking off the NDP's Graham Addley in Saskatoon Sutherland.

But she said this week she's still weighing whether she will run again in 2011.

On leave from her duties as a city police officer, Schriemer said in an interview her first love is policing and noted it would be easier to return to that job after four years rather than the eight-year gap that would occur if she ran again and won a second term.

Now, I'd expect the Sask Party to want a decision one way or the other in relatively short order. After all, it has to be their worst-case scenario for a prominent opponent like Meili to have a year and a half working the riding while an unknown Sask Party candidate gets a late start due to indecision on Schriemer's part.

But it's hard to see any possible outcome for the Sask Party that doesn't represent a somewhat weaker position than having a motivated incumbent working to hold the seat from day one. While an early decision on Schriemer's part to step down would limit any disadvantage resulting from the NDP's early start, it would still result in a loss of the incumbency advantage. Conversely, if Schriemer now decides to run again, voters will surely have to wonder whether her stated preference for police work and uncertainty as to whether she really wants the job will affect their representation.

Of course, the Sask Party's hope seems to be that top-line voter preferences will work in their favour so as to minimize the impact of constituency-level considerations. But there's plenty of risk involved in banking on that possibility - and the NDP surely won't be disappointed to see the Sask Party gamble and lose.

Update: For those looking for extra reason for excitement about Saskatoon Sutherland, Jason's retrospective on the Meili leadership campaign is worth a read.

And it's official

One of the worst-kept secrets in Saskatchewan politics was confirmed today as Ryan Meili announced his intention to seek the NDP's nomination in Saskatoon Sutherland. And I'll definitely be looking forward to seeing Ryan back in the political ring after his impressive leadership run last year.

But to make matters more interesting, the Star Phoenix notes that there are two more candidates in the mix as well beyond Meili and Scott Stelmaschuk:

Tax consultant Naveed Anwar and Saskatoon lawyer Rob Dobrohoczki, who works at the Centre for the Study of Co-operatives, also will seek the Saskatoon-Sutherland nomination.

Needless to say, there shouldn't be any lack of activity in the riding with such a strong field of candidates pursuing the NDP's nomination - meaning that whoever emerges victorious should have a solid base to build from in the general election.

Saskatoon Sutherland - Scott Stelmaschuk to Seek NDP Nomination

The week has already been loaded with Saskatchewan political news including the Sask Party's hijacking of Elections Saskatchewan, yesterday's budget, and this weekend's NDP convention. But there's also some NDP nomination announcement news worth highlighting, as Scott Stelmaschuk (another blogger) has publicly announced his intention to run in Saskatoon Sutherland. For more about Scott, see his Facebook page - which has been revived after an unsuccessful run at the federal nomination in Saskatoon-Humboldt last year.

From the NDP's standpoint, it wouldn't be at all surprising if Saskatoon Sutherland sees a highly competitive nomination contest - and indeed it's one of the ridings which has been mooted as a possible target for leadership runner-up Ryan Meili. But it's great to see Scott putting his name forward, and his hard work this early in the election cycle figures to serve both him and the party well no matter who else ends up in the race.