On deep impacts

The news that Larissa Shasko has stepped down as leader of Saskatchewan's Greens to work on Yens Pedersen's campaign has already received plenty of attention. But it's worth noting that based on the ridings involved, Shasko's move may have more impact than would appear to be the case at first glance - having the potential to tilt two swing ridings toward the NDP if the provincial race turns out to be similar to the one we saw in 2007.

Most obviously, Regina South was a close swing seat in 2007, and one which figured to be a top NDP target even if overall public support had shifted somewhat toward the Sask Party. This time out, Yens Pedersen has had well over a year to campaign as a high-profile candidate (after winning the 2007 nomination only at the start of that year's campaign), and his run for the NDP's leadership gives him a much stronger profile both inside and outside the NDP.

From that starting point, Shasko's support will offer Pedersen an experienced organizer on campus, and send the message that young and environmentally-conscious voters can be entirely comfortable with Pedersen. And in a riding where even a shift of a few dozen voters could make all the difference, that looks to be a huge bonus for Pedersen.

Meanwhile, Shasko's move may also have repercussions in Moose Jaw. Having previously run in three federal campaigns, two provincial ones and the most recent City Council race, Shasko was sure to be far more familiar to voters than any possible replacement.

Which isn't to say that her departure figures to have too much direct impact in Shasko's riding of Moose Jaw Wakamow, where the NDP's Deb Higgins looks to be in the driver's seat once again. But Moose Jaw North was the closest riding in the province in 2007, with the Saskatchewan Party's Warren Michelson winning by a mere 33 votes. And while the NDP faces a somewhat tougher race without Glenn Hagel carrying its banner, it's still well within the realm of possibility that a few dozen spillover votes based on Shasko's profile in the city could be crucial.

Of course, the more important aftershock of Shasko's decision would come if she sets a precedent for Green supporters to work with Pedersen and other NDP candidates. But even if nobody else follows suit, Shasko may wind up having a profound impact on November's election.

Saskatoon Northwest - Byelection Aftermath

The results are in from yesterday's Saskatoon Northwest by-election. And the end result looks to be yet another reinforcement of the polarization in Saskatchewan politics - with both the Sask Party and NDP cementing their place as the two groups with any substantial organization, while all three smaller parties utterly flopped once again in what may have been their last chance to put up any positive results going into the 2011 election.

Obviously the Sask Party figures to be satisfied that Gord Wyant managed to win the seat with roughly 59 per cent of the vote. But it can't escape notice that the NDP also managed to match the Sask Party's by-election trend of improving the second-place party's share of the vote, as Jan Dyky took just under a third of the vote in one of the NDP's weaker urban ridings. Which would seem to put the NDP well within striking distance of the seat.

That is, if there was any other party on the scene capable of splitting the vote so that the NDP could expect to win with a 40-45% share. But the lack of anything of the sort looks to be the biggest long-term story out of last night's results.

For the Liberals, the seat was one of the last three they managed to win back in 1999, and seemed to be an area of recent strength as well based on a well-regarded candidate (and blogger) easily exceeding the party's provincial share of the vote. And this time, the seat in play was directly adjacent to the Saskatoon Meewasin riding where former leader David Karwacki was able to turn out 30% of the vote in 2007.

But instead of being able to build on that foundation, the Libs' Eric Steiner managed a mere 3% of the vote - amounting to less than a tenth of the NDP's vote (compared to Ryan Androsoff's count of more than half of the NDP's share in 2007). And that looks to be yet another indication that the Libs are essentially out of the race even in what were their last relative strongholds.

Meanwhile, the PCs' effort to get back into the mix was even more of a flop, with Manny Sonnenschein's 2.5% share serving more to signal that any hope for the party to reemerge will likely arise out of rural Saskatchewan. And Larissa Shasko's 2.4% of the vote for the Greens looks to be a highly disappointing performance for a party leader.

All of which means that there's absolutely no indication that any other party will play even a remotely significant role in next year's rematch between Wyant and Dyky. And the more the NDP and Sask Party manage to show that nobody else is even close to contending for seats, the more likely it is that the battle between the two will only escalate as the general election approaches.

And in other Saskatchewan leadership news...

Apparently the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race won't be the only one to be decided in the province this spring, as the Greens have replaced Amber Jones with Larissa Shasko.

Now, it can't be an ideal result that even the Greens themselves don't seem to have publicized the leadership election in advance: oddly enough, the only public indication seems to have been in Amber Jones' own message in the last edition of the party newsletter. But they can at least be proud that there was enough interest within the Greens to lead to a contested race - which is more than we can say for some parties.

Meanwhile, the Greens' change in leaders also raises a serious possibility that the Sask Party might be the only one which runs the same leader in 2011 that it did in 2007. So who's up to take over the PCs from Rick Swenson?