Leadership 2009 - Week in Review

We'll see if there's enough news from the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership campaign to support a weekly roundup from here on in - but there's plenty worth pointing out about the shape of the race based on this week's developments.

The most obvious news is the addition of Ryan Meili to the contest. But what hasn't yet been noticed is just how quickly Meili has made a splash in the few areas where it's possible to measure public support.

As both the latest addition to the race and the one with the lowest profile within the NDP, Meili would have seemed to have the toughest task ahead of him in assembling a support network. But Meili's list of Facebook supporters is already longer than that of either Deb Higgins or Yens Pedersen. And in the LeaderPost's entirely unscientific poll on the race, Meili is amazingly within a whisker of Dwain Lingenfelter at 40% of the vote, with Higgins and Pedersen stuck in single digits behind "none of the above".

Of course, the Leader-Post's poll doesn't seem likely to carry much weight as an indicator of actual public opinion. But it does offer a hint as to which campaigns are best organized in showing support from the beginning. And if Meili is at the head of the pack in that department, that may signal similar strength in volunteer numbers for the other tasks which will more directly influence the outcome of the race.

Now, Higgins has some obvious alternative sources of support within the NDP caucus and the labour movement. And those factors are likely enough to maintain her ranking as the strongest challenger to Lingenfelter for now even if her online network may be the weakest of all the candidates.

Moreover, Higgins might be the greatest beneficiary of a Meili campaign strong enough to keep Lingenfelter from a first-ballot win. So Higgins may not have much reason to worry based on this week's developments.

But a candidate running on youth and renewal surely can't afford to be lapped in the online organization department. Which means that Yens Pedersen's campaign looks to face some significant problems if his head start and profile within the party have already been overtaken by Meili's support network.

In fairness, it could be as well that Meili's camp has focused on more visible showings of support to the exclusion of longer-term work - which would figure to play out publicly in time. But for now, Meili looks to have established himself firmly in the #3 position - and if he can keep up this week's pace, then Lingenfelter and Higgins may end up being surprised by the race's youngest challenger as they reach the finish line.