Within reach

Robert Silver is looking to lower expectations for the Libs for the next federal election campaign by throwing out daunting-sounding numbers about what it would take to remove the Cons from office. But let's take a closer look at whether he's right in saying that change is out of reach.

Let's note off the top that even in Silver's minimal scenario of an 8-point change, the total Lib+NDP seat count would exceed the Cons', meeting one of the artificial conditions which coalition bashers have sought to impose in the current Parliament. So if Ignatieff can overcome the distrust he's built up with the other opposition parties, even that minimal movement could result in a change in government.

But what about the higher numbers required to push the Libs alone ahead of the Cons? A 10- or 12-point swing sounds like a lot on its face. But in reality, it's well within the range of possible outcomes.

After all, it was as recently as 2006 that the total swing involving the Libs and Cons was over 13 points based on 6.5-point moves for both parties.

In 2004, the combined NDP (+7)/Lib (-4) swing was over 11 points. (I'll ignore the Cons' numbers from that year since they reflect a party merger - but looking at only raw numbers the NDP/Con swing would be even bigger at 15 points.) And in 2001, the Alliance/PC swing was just under 13 points. So in fact, the 2008 results are unique among recent elections in their lack of a significant swing among the parties.

What if one limits the swings to the top two parties from the previous Parliament - both to mimic the Con/Lib dynamic, and to avoid picking only the greatest jumps and drops from each cycle? Even there, the types of changes which Silver paints as being unrealistic are well within the range of what's happened in the past in plenty of other elections beyond 2006. In 1993, the Lib/PC swing was 36 points; in 1988, just under 11; in 1984, roughly 34; in 1972, just under 11; in 1962, 20 points and in 1958, 22 points.

And those numbers reflect all kinds of political circumstances - including minorities (1958 and 2006) and majorities alike, as well as featuring sharp changes in direction (1984 and 1993) alongside elections which preserved the current party in power (1972 and 1988).

Of course, those numbers also hint at the second part of the equation which Silver would presumably like to avoid. If a swing of 20+ points is recognized to be a plausible outcome, then there's no way around the fact that the NDP has joined the Libs within striking distance of the Cons.

But I'd have to think that Silver and others are best off playing up rather than minimizing the potential for change. After all, the more the Libs' mouthpieces try to answer the suggestion that Canadians can replace the current Con government with a pessimistic "no we can't", the more likely voters will be to look for a party which offers a more hopeful answer.

Edit: fixed typos.