Behind the numbers

A few notes on some less-noticed numbers in Strategic Counsel's budget polling which may significantly change the complexion of the outcome...

First, on the question of the budget's impact on perceptions of the Cons, it's worth noting that remarkably high numbers among current Con voters seriously skewed the top-line numbers on a few of the issues. In every other party, at least 61% of respondents noted a loss of confidence in the Cons - a particularly striking number when that confidence wouldn't figure to have been all that high to begin with. And 69% or more of respondents from every party aside from the Cons wanted to see another government given a chance - yet that figure was only 51% in the total numbers since only 6% of Con respondents shared the view.

Second, some of the statement response numbers look to be virtually impossible to reconcile. Based on the percentages involved, at least 18% of respondents agreed both that the opposition parties should back the budget, and that the Cons should be replaced with another government - and at least 4 per cent that the Cons had a good plan, yet should still be replaced.

Third, the party breakdowns offer a few interesting tidbits. Contrary to popular belief (if perhaps not party practice), Con voters were actually the least likely to be concerned with how a deficit would be paid off. Meanwhile, the voters least willing to pay higher taxes to pay off a future deficit were NDP and Bloc supporters.

And finally, there's the likelihood of support numbers. There, supporters of four parties - including the Libs - were on average more likely to support the Libs if they defeated the budget rather than backing it. But again the top-line number showed more seeming support for the budget due to a Con response which sticks out like a sore thumb, with 63% of Con voters answering that they were "much less likely" to vote for the Libs if they defeated the budget.

Now, it's probably true that Michael Ignatieff's strategy includes trying to shift a significant amount of Con support into his party's column. But in light of the other numbers among Con voters, it seems entirely possible that the headline numbers trumpeted by the Libs are the result of Ignatieff choosing the preferred option of those who will never want Harper to be replaced.