On available options

Yesterday, I discussed how a wait-and-see strategy from the Libs may lead to the best prospects for a coalition government. By way of followup, it may be worth taking some time to classify the options available to the Libs over the next month, and how they might be interpreted in divining the Libs' intentions.

As mentioned in the earlier post, the Libs' have generally demurred as to what they'd require to support a budget, or whether or not they plan on proceeding with the coalition. In effect, there would seem to be two possible reasons for that stance: either they genuinely don't know what they want to see done, or there's some reason to avoid making their demands public.

Now, it may not be entirely beyond the realm of possibility that the Libs are no more organized than Deficit Jim, and are thus avoiding any firm positions for lack of any decision as to what position to take.

But it would seem more likely that the Libs simply see some political advantage in not being wedded to any course of action. And it would seem that the end goal of installing the coalition is the one which is best served by declining to make any decisions for now - though it could be that the Libs instead want only to make Harper squirm and his party face some internal uncertainty before ultimately passing the budget.

So what other avenues are open to the Libs? If their main goal was to get particular policies passed through the budget, then the obvious step would be to put those front and centre - either with an ultimatum that their support for the budget depends on the inclusion of those policies, or as part of an invitation to the Cons to jointly formulate a policy direction for the budget.

Of course, the danger of that path is that the Cons won't hesitate to grab the most popular ideas, bastardize them and then take credit for the results. Or alternatively, there's the risk that an attempt to cooperate will be taken as weakness which leads the Cons to tempt fate with some more fiscal update-style surprises. Which probably explains why there hasn't been much indication that the Libs plan on putting much of a push behind any particular policy demands.

Now, that's not to say that the Libs haven't mentioned some general policies such as EI reform - and one might theorize that Ignatieff's "as Prime Minister, I would..." musings yesterday about tax cuts and infrastructure might be seen as a step down the policy-suggestion path. But I don't think there's much room for doubt that the Libs' message has been based on their planning to judge the Cons' budget when it's released, rather than on demanding the opportunity to shape it in detail beforehand.

The other obvious option available to the Libs would be to essentially ignore the Cons' budget process and put on a full-court press in favour of the coalition. Again, though, any such action would put Harper on notice that he faces a non-confidence vote from the Libs. And that could only make the nominally desired outcome all the more distant.

Which isn't to say there couldn't be some reason to pursue such a path, particularly if the Libs figured the damage done to Harper's image by another hyperpartisan overreach would be worth the resources from their end. But there wouldn't be any way for the coalition to actually take office unless Harper decided to let democracy run its course while facing a significant risk that it it would reduce him to the dustbin of history. And while that might be a positive enough backup plan, I'm sure the Libs know better than to bank on that end result.

In sum, the option of deferring judgment for now is likely both the best one available to the Libs, and the one most likely to lead to a coalition government in the near future. And while I'll certainly be watching closely for signs of another strategy, it looks to be the Libs' plan for the time being.